Nationals vs Diamondbacks, Game 2

[zimm_da_kid]

I think the indictment of Rizzo is more a question about E Jackson. The Gio trade was solid good. However, why spend $11M a one-year deal for another starting pitcher? Why not rent the best available hitter?

Still, Harper...

carlos beltran would have been a great pickup for us.  he is a steal at $20 million over 2 years

[GOON]

13-12, Atlanta takes the lead. Philly pen is epic awful.

Found their hitting.  Lose their pitching.

[Lintyfresh85]

carlos beltran would have been a great pickup for us.  he is a steal at $20 million over 2 years

Kubel would have been great too.

[aussienatsfan]

Found their hitting.  Lose their pitching.

That's sad.

I still think over a full season with players back that the phillies are a better team than the braves, and at this stage the standings don't mean much

[Lintyfresh85]

Oh right.

Forgot how to do this.

SOUND THE SUB HORN!

[comish4lif]

Runner on second no outs scores more runs than a runner at third and one out.

Fact.

Sabremetrics 101: Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002

Actual Runs Scored, following each base/out state to end of inning

By Tangotiger

The following table presents the average number of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning. All data is from 1999-2002.

RE 99-02    0       1         2 (# outs)
Empty         0.555   0.297   0.117
1st           0.953   0.573   0.251
2nd           1.189   0.725   0.344
3rd           1.482   0.983   0.387
1st_2nd.      1.573   0.971   0.466
1st_3rd       1.904   1.243   0.538
2nd_3rd       2.052   1.467   0.634
Loaded        2.417   1.65   0.815

[PANatsFan]

That's sad.

I still think over a full season with players back that the phillies are a better team than the braves, and at this stage the standings don't mean much

freak em, I hope they lose the next 100 games

[RobDibblesGhost]

Oh right.

Forgot how to do this.

SOUND THE SUB HORN!

Hey Mods...forget how to post the ? 

[zimm_da_kid]

harper needs to bat 3rd next game and desi and lombo should switch spots in the lineup

[welch]

carlos beltran would have been a great pickup for us.  he is a steal at $20 million over 2 years

Yep. A move just like that. I did not understand the Jackson deal when they made it, and still don't.

[comish4lif]

carlos beltran would have been a great pickup for us.  he is a steal at $20 million over 2 years

That's the truth.

[Lintyfresh85]

Sabremetrics 101: Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002

Actual Runs Scored, following each base/out state to end of inning

By Tangotiger

The following table presents the average number of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning. All data is from 1999-2002.

RE 99-02    0       1         2 (# outs)
Empty         0.555   0.297   0.117
1st           0.953   0.573   0.251
2nd           1.189   0.725   0.344
3rd           1.482   0.983   0.387
1st_2nd.      1.573   0.971   0.466
1st_3rd       1.904   1.243   0.538
2nd_3rd       2.052   1.467   0.634
Loaded        2.417   1.65   0.815

Thanks for backing up my point with the actual stats!

[DPMOmaha]

I thought you meant, we would need 3 walks to get the win. 

You know, how they normally get their wins.

Whatever it takes. 

[imref]

i'm going to go out on a limb here and guess Harper isn't going back to AAA anytime soon.  What a freaking performance he put on tonight.  He could be an all-star, ROY, and maybe even pick up a gold glove this year.

[TylerDC]

Davey reallllly loves Bryce.

[RobDibblesGhost]

i'm going to go out on a limb here and guess Harper isn't going back to AAA anytime soon.  What a freaking performance he put on tonight.  He could be an all-star, ROY, and maybe even pick up a gold glove this year.

He'd better not, especially with Nady and DeRosa on the roster.  Rizzo's not that stupid.  If Harper goes down, Davey will pull a Riggleman.

[aussienatsfan]

harper needs to bat 3rd next game and desi and lombo should switch spots in the lineup

Agreed, but i'd not have a problem with Werth 3rd, Harper 5th and one of our scrub CF's like Berny or ANKKiel 7th

[PANatsFan]

Davey reallllly loves Bryce.

Nice to finally have a superstar outfielder in DC. Soriano was the last one.

[Lintyfresh85]

i'm going to go out on a limb here and guess Harper isn't going back to AAA anytime soon.  What a freaking performance he put on tonight.  He could be an all-star, ROY, and maybe even pick up a gold glove this year.

He's not really a good fielder. YET. Great arm... but he fell over on a routine fly ball.

I think he'll be a great fielder... but you have to remember he was a former catcher just learning the position... still, he's so raw, no way he'll get or deserve a GG this year.

[welch]

Thanks for backing up my point with the actual stats!

OK...I need the executive summary: explain the meaning of the number. Does this suggest that it is good to have LaRoche bunt with runners on 1B and 2B? As best I can tell, it says that on average a team will score 1.5 runs with runner on first and second, none out. But...how?

[Kevrock]

Harper has to be moved up in the lineup. 5th maybe? Kid is a total stud.

[Rasta]

Philly just tied it at 13

[zimm_da_kid]

i'm going to go out on a limb here and guess Harper isn't going back to AAA anytime soon.  What a freaking performance he put on tonight.  He could be an all-star, ROY, and maybe even pick up a gold glove this year.

harper's going to be an all star just for his name recognition

[imref]

He'd better not, especially with Nady and DeRosa on the roster.  Rizzo's not that stupid.  If Harper goes down, Davey will pull a Riggleman.

go drinking in fells point?

[zimm_da_kid]

5th maybe? Kid is a total stud.

at least 5th