Author Topic: The Bryce Harper Compendium (2012-2013)  (Read 99094 times)

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Offline Evolution33

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #125: May 03, 2012, 09:21:49 AM »
There really are no words to describe how good Harper looked last night. He scored from second on an infield single. That is stuff of legend.

Offline Sharp

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #126: May 03, 2012, 09:25:21 AM »
There really are no words to describe how good Harper looked last night. He scored from second on an infield single. That is stuff of legend.
The pickoff at first was pretty legendary too.

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #127: May 03, 2012, 09:27:22 AM »
I know. A lot of people are sold on Ruben Tejeda but I don't think his .387 BABIP will hold up.

You can take the month of baseball and proclaim Desmond the best... and I'll take Reyes and his years of history.

Online blue911

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #128: May 03, 2012, 09:28:10 AM »
I know. A lot of people are sold on Ruben Tejeda but I don't think his .387 BABIP will hold up.

He will always have a high BABIP. He has zero or less power, while striking out about 15% of the time.

Offline Sharp

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #129: May 03, 2012, 09:40:14 AM »
He will always have a high BABIP. He has zero or less power, while striking out about 15% of the time.

Having no power doesn't really improve your BABIP--the trend is actually in the opposite direction, according to the article below.  Since strikeouts aren't in play, they also only impact your BABIP indirectly.  There are a lot of things that do impact BABIP--taking pitches, walking, spraying to all parts of the field, hitting lots of line drives, and just being really fast, among others--but even if you do most of those moderately well a .387 BABIP is extremely high and likely to come down:

The actual standard deviation of hitter BABIP among players with at least 300 PA in a given season is about .031, but removing the fraction that could be attributed to luck using the same methods as the article I just referenced, and true hitter skill in BABIP should have a standard deviation of about .019. My model predicts about .018, indicating that I have isolated the most important aspects of BABIP.


The NL average BABIP was .296 in 2011, which would put Teajada's .387 BABIP in the 99.9999th percentile if it's his true talent.  For comparison, Ichiro has a .351 career BABIP (probably a bit lower than the 99.8th percentile because he's in the AL and BABIP was higher on average in the 2000's).  I think it's safe to say Ruben will regress some. 

Offline HerndonNat

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #130: May 03, 2012, 09:53:51 AM »
I like how Baseball Tonight made such a big deal about him "slapping" the ball away from the catcher last night.  They actually tried to compare it to A-Rod's little slap a few years ago.  This was nothing like it.  He was more trying to protect his face from the glove then anything.  Martin's slap of the ball last Friday was much worse.  Now I know why I stick to MLB Network.

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #131: May 03, 2012, 09:55:28 AM »
I like how Baseball Tonight made such a big deal about him "slapping" the ball away from the catcher last night.  They actually tried to compare it to A-Rod's little slap a few years ago.  This was nothing like it.  He was more trying to protect his face from the glove then anything.  Martin's slap of the ball last Friday was much worse.  Now I know why I stick to MLB Network.

I love MLBN... but lately, HR has been getting on my nerves.

Don't even mention stats to him... or he'll go off like Dusty.

Offline HerndonNat

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #132: May 03, 2012, 09:58:03 AM »
I love MLBN... but lately, HR has been getting on my nerves.

Don't even mention stats to him... or he'll go off like Dusty.

A little OT but last night I noticed they called it MLB Tonight: Roundtripper then MLB Tonight: First to Third.  I don't remember them being called that before.

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #133: May 03, 2012, 09:59:01 AM »
A little OT but last night I noticed they called it MLB Tonight: Roundtripper then MLB Tonight: First to Third.  I don't remember them being called that before.

I know they change up the analyzers (as Mitch said last night :lol:) at/around 11 p.m. while sticking with the host. Maybe that's when they change the name?

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #134: May 03, 2012, 10:08:44 AM »
The pickoff at first was pretty legendary too.

He went on first move. It was almost certainly a dugout call from Davey to steal on that pitch and to steal on first move.

Harper did nothing wrong.

Offline The Chief

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #135: May 03, 2012, 10:09:32 AM »
He went on first move. It was almost certainly a dugout call from Davey to steal on that pitch and to steal on first move.

Harper did nothing wrong.

I like how you're sticking to your guns on this :lol:

Not saying I don't believe you - I didn't see the play - I just find it amusing what some people get riled about sometimes :)

Online Baseball is Life

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #136: May 03, 2012, 11:28:19 AM »
Davey hinted in his post-game interview that he's itching to move Harper up in the lineup. It wouldn't surprise me if we see this sooner than later. As in tonight or this weekend.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #137: May 03, 2012, 11:45:17 AM »
The NL average BABIP was .296 in 2011, which would put Teajada's .387 BABIP in the 99.9999th percentile if it's his true talent.  For comparison, Ichiro has a .351 career BABIP (probably a bit lower than the 99.8th percentile because he's in the AL and BABIP was higher on average in the 2000's).  I think it's safe to say Ruben will regress some. 


Where exactly did you come up with Tejada's true talent? What you are doing is completely wrong mathematically?

Offline wpa2629

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #138: May 03, 2012, 02:59:03 PM »
Mark Zuckerman‏@MarkZuckerman

In the fifth game of his career, Bryce Harper will hit 3rd for the #Nats.

Online Baseball is Life

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #139: May 03, 2012, 03:01:25 PM »
Mark Zuckerman‏@MarkZuckerman

In the fifth game of his career, Bryce Harper will hit 3rd for the #Nats.


Effin studddddddd.


Offline wpa2629

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #140: May 03, 2012, 03:02:14 PM »


Most exciting player in the game ....

:worship:

Online Baseball is Life

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #141: May 03, 2012, 03:03:55 PM »

Most exciting player in the game ....

:worship:

Can't take your eyes off him. He's the talk of the baseball world right now. Let's hope he hits a couple of bombs to really stoke the talk.


Offline cmdterps44

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #142: May 03, 2012, 03:03:57 PM »
holy crap 3rd!?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #143: May 03, 2012, 03:10:42 PM »
In the 5th game of his career, he will be hit in the first inning when the bases are empty and there are two outs.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #144: May 03, 2012, 03:12:26 PM »
holy crap 3rd!?

Makes sense, he's arguably the base bat on the team, and LaRoche is hitting 4th so your not slighting him

Offline imref

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #145: May 03, 2012, 03:14:07 PM »
Makes sense, he's arguably the base bat on the team, and LaRoche is hitting 4th so your not slighting him


L/L/L 2-3-4 is interesting as well.

Offline imref

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #146: May 03, 2012, 03:15:04 PM »
so assuming harper goes 2/3 with a HR and a double tonight, i'm starting to wonder if the kid will get bored with the game in a few weeks.  maybe they need to start having him catch and pitch?

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #147: May 03, 2012, 03:15:14 PM »
In the 5th game of his career, he will be hit in the first inning when the bases are empty and there are two outs.

I laughed.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #148: May 03, 2012, 03:22:24 PM »
so assuming harper goes 2/3 with a HR and a double tonight, i'm starting to wonder if the kid will get bored with the game in a few weeks.  maybe they need to start having him catch and pitch?

i'm actually hoping for a long extra innings game so harper can go all wilson valdez.  except he'll be throwing mid-90's.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #149: May 03, 2012, 03:24:16 PM »
In the 5th game of his career, he will be hit in the first inning when the bases are empty and there are two outs.

You think he will be beaned?