Message #1042824

[tomterp]

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17262

Bryce Harper and the Disappearing Phiten Necklace
 
by Sam Miller, Baseball Prospectus
 
These are simply three unrelated items that should be in the public record somewhere.
 
1. Monday, I wrote about Bryce Harper’s toughest at-bats. One was against Kenley Jansen, in late April, and another was against Jonny Venters, in late May. In the first one, Bryce Harper was wearing a Phiten magic necklace, and in the second one he was not. Somewhere between late April and late May, Bryce Harper either realized magic necklaces aren’t real, or he decided that they are real but they don’t work on his particular body chemistry, or he lost his. Magic necklaces obviously are real, and they obviously do work, no duh, or else why would all these athletes (and bat boys, and managers, and fans) wear them? I know what you’re probably going to say, but let me reiterate: Uh no duh.

 So let’s figure out when Bryce Harper quit wearing it. I went through every game that produced a highlight of Bryce Harper on MLB.com, which is every game he has played in except two games. I’m going to assume that, when he wore one, it was visible, not tucked in; if I were to allow otherwise, this exercise would be impossible, and he wore it prominently when he did wear it, so I don’t think he’s a tucker. (But what if he’s wearing a bracelet? If he’s wearing a bracelet then we just have to live with our mistake.)

 We have these stages of Bryce Harper:
 
April 28 through May 4: Phiten necklace wearer
 May 5 through May 16: Occasional Phiten necklace wearer
 May 17 through present: Not a Phiten necklace wearer
 
He wore the necklace on May 13 (pink, for Mother's Day) and May 16, but otherwise had a bare neck after May 5. (The two games with no Harper highlights, and excluded from this, are May 19 and May 28.)

 It’s a total of eight games with, and 22 games without, and a total of 33 plate appearances with and 95 plate appearances without. (It's okay to use pseudoscientific sample sizes if you're evaluating pseudoscientific necklaces.) Now, scared of what I might find, I’m going to do the sums.

 With the necklace, he has nine hits, five of them for extra bases, but no home runs. He has no stolen bases and was caught once. Without the necklace, he had 24 hits, 11 of them for extra bases, five of them over the wall. He has stolen two bases and been caught once. He has smashed his own face with a bat.

 With the necklace, he has struck out every 5.5 plate appearances. Without, he has struck out every 7.3 plate appearances. But he walked more (every 6.6 plate appearances) with the necklace than without (every 7.9). And his overall slash stats:
 
With: .333/.424/.555
Without: .293/.389/.585
 
So he traded 25 points of OBP for 30 points of slugging. Not a great trade-off, on the field. On the other hand, he’s not giving away one of the most marketable brands in sports (Bryce Harper) for a pro bono endorsement of something really stupid.