I'm, uh, not sure you followed my post. I was given Tejada's current BABIP and was told that it was not likely to regress much because he would always have a high BABIP. I then did the math and pointed out that if this was going to be his true talent (career average) he would have to be a phenomenally great hitter--best of all time type great. In fact, he would have to lose over .30 points to get to Ichiro's BABIP--one of the greatest BABIP talents of all time. I concluded that this was probably NOT his true talent and he was likely to regress. Since I didn't make any mathematical errors or jump to any unreasonable conclusions, I'm not really sure where you're getting this from.

1. We don't know if his career average is his true talent

2. The standard deviation should be a lot higher than the one you used because the sample size of is smaller. If you look at the formula for Standard deviation, N is in the denominator so the lower the N the higher the standard deviation.