Author Topic: The Bryce Harper Compendium (2012)  (Read 131113 times)

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Offline Sharp

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Re: The Bryce Harper Compendium
« Reply #125: May 03, 2012, 09:40:14 AM »
He will always have a high BABIP. He has zero or less power, while striking out about 15% of the time.
Having no power doesn't really improve your BABIP--the trend is actually in the opposite direction, according to the article below.  Since strikeouts aren't in play, they also only impact your BABIP indirectly.  There are a lot of things that do impact BABIP--taking pitches, walking, spraying to all parts of the field, hitting lots of line drives, and just being really fast, among others--but even if you do most of those moderately well a .387 BABIP is extremely high and likely to come down:

The actual standard deviation of hitter BABIP among players with at least 300 PA in a given season is about .031, but removing the fraction that could be attributed to luck using the same methods as the article I just referenced, and true hitter skill in BABIP should have a standard deviation of about .019. My model predicts about .018, indicating that I have isolated the most important aspects of BABIP.

The NL average BABIP was .296 in 2011, which would put Teajada's .387 BABIP in the 99.9999th percentile if it's his true talent.  For comparison, Ichiro has a .351 career BABIP (probably a bit lower than the 99.8th percentile because he's in the AL and BABIP was higher on average in the 2000's).  I think it's safe to say Ruben will regress some.