Author Topic: Davey Management Style  (Read 12067 times)

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Offline Sharp

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #300: June 25, 2012, 08:40:57 AM »
Well, Stras's ERA is worse than most of his ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) so he might actually improve down the stretch, but Gio's obviously going to give up more than one home run this year and the rest of our starters are due for some negative regression as well.  Coors Field is a prime candidate for some of that to happen.  Other than its obvious traits, the park also depresses strikeout rates by over 10%.  That might help our hitters more than it hurts our pitchers though :P

Edit: Nope, though it's close.  Our pitching staff has a collective 22.5 K% and our hitters have a 21.9 K%, so the pitchers should be hurt more in absolute terms.  21.9 still sucks though, no wonder everyone we face seems to be having a career night.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #301: June 25, 2012, 11:27:10 AM »
Well, Stras's ERA is worse than most of his ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) so he might actually improve down the stretch, but Gio's obviously going to give up more than one home run this year and the rest of our starters are due for some negative regression as well.  Coors Field is a prime candidate for some of that to happen.  Other than its obvious traits, the park also depresses strikeout rates by over 10%.  That might help our hitters more than it hurts our pitchers though :P

Edit: Nope, though it's close.  Our pitching staff has a collective 22.5 K% and our hitters have a 21.9 K%, so the pitchers should be hurt more in absolute terms.  21.9 still sucks though, no wonder everyone we face seems to be having a career night.

21.9% is pretty close to the average in baseball

Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #302: June 25, 2012, 11:33:26 AM »
...Gio's obviously going to give up more than one home run this year...

Negative Nancy. ;)


Offline Sharp

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #303: June 25, 2012, 05:02:34 PM »
21.9% is pretty close to the average in baseball
Second-worst in the game.  League average is 19.6%.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #304: June 25, 2012, 05:08:35 PM »
Second-worst in the game.  League average is 19.6%.

I thought it was based on ABs and not PA. Average has gone down in the past month. It was at over 20%

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #305: June 25, 2012, 09:14:01 PM »
I thought it was based on ABs and not PA. Average has gone down in the past month. It was at over 20%

can see it either way, but it is more meaningful to do it as % of PAs. It allows more direct comparison to BB rates.  This is the Fangraph protocol.  I'm not sure how MLB or ESPN does it.

Offline PC

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #306: July 09, 2012, 01:29:11 AM »
Jesus Flores hasn't gotten a hit since June 30 and Davey puts him out there as the final out in the game, the last chance to get a hit.

Mark DeRosa and his .133 BA has two hits since then. Rick Ankiel, RICK ANKIEL!!!!, has two hits since then.  Were they both unavailable today for some reason?

Online MarquisDeSade

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #307: July 09, 2012, 06:52:34 AM »
Didn't FP mention something about them having to have a catcher in the lineup?

Online Mathguy

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #308: July 09, 2012, 07:02:27 AM »
If a different batter than Flores had gotten a hit, Flores could have played the next inning as the catcher.  However, Flores may have already been announced, at which case he couldn't be pinch hit for and return to the game

Didn't FP mention something about them having to have a catcher in the lineup?


Offline Ray D

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #309: July 09, 2012, 07:20:33 AM »
However, Flores may have already been announced,
Question is, how did Davey let him get announced.  That's something the manager controls.

Offline shoeshineboy

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #310: July 09, 2012, 08:40:46 AM »
The options were limited. Flores shows an ability to make contact. Ankiel is an all-or-nothing strikeout machine.

Offline OldNatsFan

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #311: July 09, 2012, 08:47:14 AM »
 I didn't mind Flores batting instead of Ankiel but wish Davy had left Zimmermann in for the 8th.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #312: July 09, 2012, 08:58:28 AM »
I didn't mind Flores batting instead of Ankiel but wish Davy had left Zimmermann in for the 8th.

Hindsight

Burnett and Clippard have been lights out. If Zimmermann had struggled, we'd be upset that Burnett wasn't brought in

Offline Ray D

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #313: July 09, 2012, 09:07:06 AM »

Burnett and Clippard have been lights out. If Zimmermann had struggled, we'd be upset that Burnett wasn't brought in
But  he could have removed Zimmerman as soon as he put the first runner on base with the easy excuse that he had pitched seven innings and had run out of gas.  But with a fresh reliever it's much harder to run him out if he puts the first runner on base.

Offline shoeshineboy

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #314: July 09, 2012, 09:09:48 AM »
Hindsight

Burnett and Clippard have been lights out. If Zimmermann had struggled, we'd be upset that Burnett wasn't brought in

This. The team is managed so that people know their roles. Sometimes, they are pushed to see if they can battle out of their own issues to help preserve the pen and keep people in the right slots. Sometimes people are pulled early for protection. Sometimes they win; sometimes they lose; sometimes it rains. It's baseball, and the team is being managed with that in mind - part of the reason why they are still in first and likely in good shape to avoid a big fade.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #315: July 09, 2012, 09:13:18 AM »
Hindsight

Burnett and Clippard have been lights out. If Zimmermann had struggled, we'd be upset that Burnett wasn't brought in

Totally agree I don't think you can question managers for putting in closers or setup pitchers without engaging in a crapload of hindsight- a modern pitcher's job is to hand the ball to a setup guy with the lead. Burnett and clippard have been extremely reliable this year, but every time anyone pitchers there's a chance they give up some runs (even the best closers aren't perfect), it's going to happen, and it's noone's fault

Offline Ray D

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #316: July 09, 2012, 09:22:37 AM »
This. The team is managed so that people know their roles. Sometimes, they are pushed to see if they can battle out of their own issues to help preserve the pen and keep people in the right slots. Sometimes people are pulled early for protection.


I agree with this 99.5% of the time.  When you have a four day break ahead of you, you have room to deviate from the plan.




Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #317: July 09, 2012, 09:25:28 AM »
I agree with this 99.5% of the time.  When you have a four day break ahead of you, you have room to deviate from the plan.





who would you trust more to get through one inning clean- Burnett, Clippard, or Zimmermann? I would put Zimmermann third on that list personally

Offline Ray D

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #318: July 09, 2012, 09:36:57 AM »
who would you trust more to get through one inning clean- Burnett, Clippard, or Zimmermann? I would put Zimmermann third on that list personally

Yes of course.  But read my earlier post. I suggested that since Zimmerman was already in, leave him in and remove him as soon as he lets a man on base.

Offline mitlen

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #319: July 09, 2012, 09:46:53 AM »
who would you trust more to get through one inning clean- Burnett, Clippard, or Zimmermann? I would put Zimmermann third on that list personally

Yes of course.  But read my earlier post. I suggested that since Zimmerman was already in, leave him in and remove him as soon as he lets a man on base.

I lean toward Ray D on this.   If Z'mann just came in then yeah, I'd go with Burnett or Clipp.   However Z'mann already had some good innings under his belt.   Didn't understand it then and understand it less today.    Of course, the fact that the relievers screwed the pooch allows me the opportunity to come in and like a freakin' genius.


Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #320: July 09, 2012, 10:03:43 AM »
Yes of course.  But read my earlier post. I suggested that since Zimmerman was already in, leave him in and remove him as soon as he lets a man on base.

The problem is that he's known to give up home runs, so that first man on base could be a run.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #321: July 09, 2012, 11:12:52 AM »
The problem is that he's known to give up home runs, so that first man on base could be a run.

There was a two-run lead.  With a one-run lead I wouldn't even suggest keeping him in.  With two-runs, I realize if he puts a man on it brings up the tying run, but I'd take the chance.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #322: July 09, 2012, 11:16:51 AM »
either you trust burnett and clippard to get outs or you don't- not expecting them to protect a lead is ridiculous. I'd rather have Burnett in there after Zimmermann has already gone 7 than let zimmermann go out there for an 8th 

Offline blue911

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #323: July 09, 2012, 11:18:08 AM »
It was a hundred freaking degrees.

Offline mitlen

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Re: Davey Management Style
« Reply #324: July 09, 2012, 11:22:17 AM »
It was a hundred freaking degrees.

I watched the whole game from my A/C'd living room.   He could have done it.