Author Topic: Strasburg in October..  (Read 14367 times)

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Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1025: August 23, 2012, 11:24:22 AM »
I think that's why they're taking this course of action to give us the best possibility of avoiding that.

No... he's being serious.

If you run Stras into the ground... you sap every last bit of value out of him and you get massive return on your investment. From an economist point of view... that likely would be the right way to do it.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1026: August 23, 2012, 11:26:23 AM »
I think that's why they're taking this course of action to give us the best possibility of avoiding that.

I would argue that we're likely to get less value out of Strass than the Braves did out of avery

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1027: August 23, 2012, 11:31:12 AM »
if we cook Stras like Avery, it seems like we'd get a great return on our record setting draft bonus

We already made back the money on Strasburg's signing bonus, probably twice over.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1028: August 23, 2012, 11:35:55 AM »
I would argue that we're likely to get less value out of Strass than the Braves did out of avery

Not even sure how you'd quantify that.  In terms of money, I'd imagine with all the pubilcity we've gotten and uptick in attendance (which isn't only on SS, but he's had a big part in it), we've already had an incredible return on a relatively meager investment.  If this plan "works" and he stays healthy for the long term AND he re-signs here, becoming the pitcher we all hope/thing he will become, we'll win that comparison going away.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1029: August 23, 2012, 11:38:23 AM »
No... he's being serious.

If you run Stras into the ground... you sap every last bit of value out of him and you get massive return on your investment. From an economist point of view... that likely would be the right way to do it.

I don't think so.  An economist would argue for maximizing the return on the investment over the lifetime of the investment - running him into the ground so that you win the WS this year and he never pitches again is leveraging the long-term value of the good to maximize the one-year return - like taking a second mortgage on your house to put it in the stock market.  It's a higher-risk play with higher upside, but risks diminishing the overall return on investment.  That said, if it works and you don't hurt his longer-term potential, it's the best possible outcome - it all boils back down to how you judge the risk.

An economist would probably have argued for the strategy they are following - maximize his $$ return this year by having him pitch in games that are less likely to draw significant numbers of fans, then shut him down for those games where the team will sellout anyway (playoffs) and hedge the risk to his longer-term value as best you can.  From an overall efficiency vs. risk point of view, shutting him down now is probably the right call.  But I don't think Rizzo is thinking about it in a dollars-and-cents way.  You could certainly start to monetize it down to marginal Nats cost per Stras start (his salary) vs. marginal Nats return per Stras start (average difference in attendance, marginal jersey sales, some pro-rated figure for Stras' presence on the roster leading to higher attendance even at non-Stras games, etc.) to figure out how to maximize revenue inflow vs. invested salary.  But that would be BOOOOORING.   ;)

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1030: August 23, 2012, 11:44:49 AM »
The long term is four more seasons after this year (the length of his commitment here),  if you want to use the avery comp (boras seems happy to in interviews and my comment was in response to blue housing him),  him burning out would be his next team's problem

Offline PC

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1031: August 23, 2012, 11:46:40 AM »
The long term is four more seasons after this year (the length of his commitment here),  if you want to use the avery comp (boras seems happy to in interviews and my comment was in response to blue housing him),  him burning out would be his next team's problem

What if we're his next team?

Offline Ray D

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1032: August 23, 2012, 11:52:24 AM »
What if we're his next team?

Right. I really find it preposterous when people automatically assume that he (or Harper) are out-of-here as soon as they are free to leave.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1033: August 23, 2012, 11:54:01 AM »
What if we're his next team?

Considering the contract he'll be in line for,  I hope we're not

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1034: August 23, 2012, 11:54:16 AM »
Stras re-signs. Harper I doubt it.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1035: August 23, 2012, 11:57:05 AM »
No one has any flipping clue who re-signs.

Linty, what's your opinion on how the Rays slid David Price to the bullpen? Not that it's a comparative situation, because he was not rehabbing from TJS. I'm just curious if you think they should have risked burning him out year one when they had him under contract for five more years.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1036: August 23, 2012, 11:59:19 AM »
When I said an economist would want to run him into the ground, I didn't mean this year. I meant over the life of the contract. I've always agreed with the 160-180 limit this year.

The same argument was made with Harper in regards to catching. Do the Nats sap his knees and have him catch, discarding him after his deal is up... Or do they promote him quickly and miss out on his prime years?

Offline tomterp

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1037: August 23, 2012, 12:07:52 PM »
"Hit harder" in the sense that an elbow injury can cause much longer DL time and have much more significant career ramifications.  See the article Kevrock posted above about second-round TJ surgery.

Oh, if you get hit again, yes.  But I bet someone who's had TJ already is a LOWER risk for additional elbow problems than a pitcher who's never had it.  Mindfact for sure, but it seems this tends to strengthen the joint against future issues.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1038: August 23, 2012, 12:13:35 PM »
The same argument was made with Harper in regards to catching.

I think that decision was based on the fact that it would take him several years in the minors to develop as a major league catcher, as opposed to a few months, as a major league outfielder.


Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1039: August 23, 2012, 12:17:57 PM »
Why would the Nats care? Delaying him a few years would actually help the Nats have under contract closer to his peak than they will with the current strategy of letting him reach FA in his mid 20's.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1040: August 23, 2012, 12:44:01 PM »
When I said an economist would want to run him into the ground, I didn't mean this year. I meant over the life of the contract. I've always agreed with the 160-180 limit this year.

The same argument was made with Harper in regards to catching. Do the Nats sap his knees and have him catch, discarding him after his deal is up... Or do they promote him quickly and miss out on his prime years?

Sorry - missed that.  In that case, you're right.  From a pure ROI point of view, you want to maximize the number of innings he pitches over the lifetime of the contract, without regard to what shape his arm is in once the contract ends.  With one caveat:  You don't care what shape his arm is in when the contract is over, but you care extremely what shape it's in up until the last day of the contract, so the more you push him early, the more you risk him late.  In the last year of his contract, sure, let 'er rip and he should start 40 games and throw 300 IP.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1041: August 23, 2012, 12:52:30 PM »
I don't think so.  An economist would argue for maximizing the return on the investment over the lifetime of the investment - running him into the ground so that you win the WS this year and he never pitches again is leveraging the long-term value of the good to maximize the one-year return - like taking a second mortgage on your house to put it in the stock market.  It's a higher-risk play with higher upside, but risks diminishing the overall return on investment.  That said, if it works and you don't hurt his longer-term potential, it's the best possible outcome - it all boils back down to how you judge the risk.

An economist would probably have argued for the strategy they are following - maximize his $$ return this year by having him pitch in games that are less likely to draw significant numbers of fans, then shut him down for those games where the team will sellout anyway (playoffs) and hedge the risk to his longer-term value as best you can.  From an overall efficiency vs. risk point of view, shutting him down now is probably the right call.  But I don't think Rizzo is thinking about it in a dollars-and-cents way.  You could certainly start to monetize it down to marginal Nats cost per Stras start (his salary) vs. marginal Nats return per Stras start (average difference in attendance, marginal jersey sales, some pro-rated figure for Stras' presence on the roster leading to higher attendance even at non-Stras games, etc.) to figure out how to maximize revenue inflow vs. invested salary.  But that would be BOOOOORING.   ;)

If they win the WS this year, they are maximizing their value. Attendance will shoot up for years as a response to a World Series win

Offline blue911

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1042: August 23, 2012, 12:54:44 PM »
Sorry - missed that.  In that case, you're right.  From a pure ROI point of view, you want to maximize the number of innings he pitches over the lifetime of the contract, without regard to what shape his arm is in once the contract ends.  With one caveat:  You don't care what shape his arm is in when the contract is over, but you care extremely what shape it's in up until the last day of the contract, so the more you push him early, the more you risk him late.  In the last year of his contract, sure, let 'er rip and he should start 40 games and throw 300 IP.

 I've never heard of an economist advocating a scorched earth policy.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1043: August 23, 2012, 12:56:09 PM »
I think that decision was based on the fact that it would take him several years in the minors to develop as a major league catcher, as opposed to a few months, as a major league outfielder.

I think that decision was made by Harper/Boras. Remember that he was announced as an OF at the draft.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1044: August 23, 2012, 12:58:18 PM »
Most likely Boras. Doubtful Harper wanted to move off the plate.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1045: August 23, 2012, 01:08:25 PM »
Rizzo coulda done it based on seeing the Joe Mauer thing. Did he draft Harper before or after he stole Wilson Ramos?

Side note: Dave Cameron thinks we should trade for Josh Beckett :spaz:

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1046: August 23, 2012, 01:13:17 PM »
Josh Beckett

OMG

No

Offline blue911

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1047: August 23, 2012, 01:14:43 PM »
Rizzo coulda done it based on seeing the Joe Mauer thing. Did he draft Harper before or after he stole Wilson Ramos?

Side note: Dave Cameron thinks we should trade for Josh Beckett :spaz:

Nobody should trade for Beckett.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1048: August 23, 2012, 01:24:22 PM »
I think that decision was made by Harper/Boras. Remember that he was announced as an OF at the draft.

But I'm fairly sure that I remember that it was the Nats who made that decision and announced it prior to the draft (since it was know that we were going to draft him).   Boras has no authority to make any such decision.

Although I suppose it could be argued that Harper does. Even then, I'm not sure. Does a player have the authority to determine what position he plays? Look what happened to Soriano.


Offline wpa2629

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #1049: August 23, 2012, 01:25:48 PM »
But I'm fairly sure that I remember that it was the Nats who made that decision and announced it prior to the draft (since it was know that we were going to draft him).   Boras has no authority to make any such decision.

Although I suppose it could be argued that Harper does. Even then, I'm not sure. Does a player have the authority to determine what position he plays? Look what happened to Soriano.



The Nats made the decision, I read an article about it


And I'm sure Bryce was in favor of whatever position gets him to the majors faster