Author Topic: Strasburg in October..  (Read 14542 times)

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Offline tomterp

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We have a 3 game lead in the division.  Stras has provided 2.9 WAR.  Seems to me like we'd still be talking playoffs without him going every fifth day.

Sure, just drop Maya into that #1 starter role and we're good to go.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #126: June 21, 2012, 03:02:21 PM »
Please don't bring up the Atlanta Braves.       What did they win in all that contending ...  one WS?   

The expected probability would have been for them to win 1.65 WS (13 * 1/8, the # of teams competing each year), so winning "only" 1 isn't quite as much of an underperform as is normally viewed.  2 would have been slightly exceeding expectations.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Sure, just drop Maya into that #1 starter role and we're good to go.

With all due respect your posts in general are some of the best on this forum.  On this issue they are borderline nonsensical

Offline mitlen

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #128: June 21, 2012, 03:03:36 PM »
The expected probability would have been for them to win 1.65 WS (13 * 1/8, the # of teams competing each year), so winning "only" 1 isn't quite as much of an underperform as is normally viewed.  2 would have been slightly exceeding expectations.

Don't your stats assume all teams are of equal ability?   Ergo, they were jinxed.   :)   I'm guessin' it was because of the owner's wife.  (mindfact)

Offline spidernat

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sarcasm FTW  :lmao:

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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With all due respect your posts in general are some of the best on this forum.  On this issue they are borderline nonsensical

WAR is nonsensical

Offline Baseball is Life

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We have a 3 game lead in the division.  Stras has provided 2.9 WAR.  Seems to me like we'd still be talking playoffs without him going every fifth day. 

The Nats are 13-2 when he starts. 'Nough said.


Offline tomterp

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With all due respect your posts in general are some of the best on this forum.  On this issue they are borderline nonsensical

When I think replacement level and look at Syracuse, Maya springs to mind first.  So if accept that leap of faith and also your 2.9 WAR for Stras, we'd be in first or tied for first even with Maya in the rotation in place of Stras, right?  Isn't that what you are getting at?

Sure, I dropped the Maya reference to raise a few eyebrows, but I don't think it's way far off the point you were trying to make.

Offline houston-nat

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The Nats are 13-2 when he starts. 'Nough said.



And if they're 3-2 in the starts he does NOT make at the end of the year, what are the odds the (in all likelihood) one win difference knocks us out of the playoffs?

Offline tomterp

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #134: June 21, 2012, 04:23:39 PM »
Don't your stats assume all teams are of equal ability?   Ergo, they were jinxed.   :)   I'm guessin' it was because of the owner's wife.  (mindfact)

Yep.  Braves are an average playoff team.  Or, they were a better than average playoff team but couldn't buck the Fonda jinx headwind, right?    :twisted:

Offline welch

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #135: June 21, 2012, 04:23:48 PM »
The expected probability would have been for them to win 1.65 WS (13 * 1/8, the # of teams competing each year), so winning "only" 1 isn't quite as much of an underperform as is normally viewed.  2 would have been slightly exceeding expectations.

How did the Yankees win four in a row, five out of six years, and come within two outs in 2001 of making it five in a row? (Aside from having a balanced team that all hit well and fielded under pressure. And a manager who shielded the players from Von Steingrabber, most always.)

Offline tomterp

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #136: June 21, 2012, 04:29:02 PM »
How did the Yankees win four in a row, five out of six years, and come within two outs in 2001 of making it five in a row? (Aside from having a balanced team that all hit well and fielded under pressure. And a manager who shielded the players from Von Steingrabber, most always.)

$200m payroll to assemble the best team money can buy.

I was looking at their roster last weekend at the game I was at, they had about 3 "true Yankees" in the lineup - Cano, Jeter, Pettitte.   

Offline spit

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Lock this thread. Ban all posters.

Offline panthers30

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Ugh.  I'm so sick of the Strasburg innings limit talk and I know it hasn't even begun yet.

Offline shoeshineboy

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Is anyone seriously asking this question?

The author is an idiot, plain and simple.

This.

You have to get to the playoffs first, and you are better off winning as many as you can earlier so you can weigh options. This seems like the same person who would complain the last week of September if the Nats were a few wins shy of the playoffs and had reserved Strasburg for a month.

This line of thinking also misses the boat when it comes to Strasburg specifically. The guy is on a recovery path from TJ surgery. Plain and simple, for the good of the player and organization long term, you follow a routine that is best for that recovery not a routine that puts that recovery at risk in favor of trying to jockey things around to reserve innings in the crapshoot of the playoffs.

Also, in the future-is-now environment of the playoffs, teams have more flexibility and  are more likely to shift schedules around and use pitchers in different ways to cobble together the best of what they have without worrying about the impact a few weeks down the road, because the season will then be over.

Offline mitlen

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #140: June 21, 2012, 05:39:16 PM »
Yep.  Braves are an average playoff team.  Or, they were a better than average playoff team but couldn't buck the Fonda jinx headwind, right?    :twisted:

Exactly

Offline mmzznnxx

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I won't lie, I wouldn't be opposed to slipping Wang or Lannan into Stras's spot once every couple of weeks just to stretch him a little longer, but I know how Davey likes consistency and Stras likes to go out and play, so I doubt that will happen.

I definitely prefer their approach of starting him at the beginning of the season as opposed to starting him later though. I feel like it will instill more camaraderie in the team, and also show the rest of the pitchers the organization believes in them when Stephen gets shut down for the season.

Offline mitlen

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This.

You have to get to the playoffs first, and you are better off winning as many as you can earlier so you can weigh options. This seems like the same person who would complain the last week of September if the Nats were a few wins shy of the playoffs and had reserved Strasburg for a month.

This line of thinking also misses the boat when it comes to Strasburg specifically. The guy is on a recovery path from TJ surgery. Plain and simple, for the good of the player and organization long term, you follow a routine that is best for that recovery not a routine that puts that recovery at risk in favor of trying to jockey things around to reserve innings in the crapshoot of the playoffs.

Also, in the future-is-now environment of the playoffs, teams have more flexibility and  are more likely to shift schedules around and use pitchers in different ways to cobble together the best of what they have without worrying about the impact a few weeks down the road, because the season will then be over.

There are a couple of posters I ALWAYS read.   SSB is one of 'em.

Offline Hogie

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #143: June 21, 2012, 06:52:23 PM »
I keep thinking Dan Marino.

Ok then, I will just choose to think John Elway.

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #144: June 21, 2012, 07:11:13 PM »
$200m payroll to assemble the best team money can buy.

he said the teams from the mid-90s to early '00s. Go back and look at those payrolls.

Offline d_mc_nabb

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Basically what SSB said.

I also just wanted to point out that in this hypothetical innings limit of 160, it is equally important to ensure he actually does get those innings, not more, not less. To hold him out for several months makes it very hard to ensure he gets 160, and it still doesn't solve the playoffs problem. Factoring in playoffs means playing an even more dangerous game with the innings because any one could be his last- there's virtually no chance he gets to but does not exceed his innings limit while also pitching playoffs.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Ugh.  I'm so sick of the Strasburg innings limit talk and I know it hasn't even begun yet.

Yep. It will go on all season, whether they make the playoffs or not. Uggh is right.

Offline Slateman

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It's pretty easy. If he gets shutdown, front office is saying they don't want the playoffs. They don't shut him down, they're going all in.

Offline tomterp

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It's pretty easy. If he gets shutdown, front office is saying they don't want the playoffs. They don't shut him down, they're going all in.

 :roll:     :smh:

Offline MarquisDeSade

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It's pretty easy. If he gets shutdown, front office is saying they don't want the playoffs. They don't shut him down, they're going all in.

Isn't there some wall you can drive your car into?