Author Topic: Strasburg in October..  (Read 15529 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 12052
  • Troll So Hard University
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #850: August 17, 2012, 11:28:34 AM »
So where is the evidence for that? I find that hard to believe. I don't see other teams saying anything about limiting starts post-TJ. innings, yes, but not starts. Not to mention he is adding like 3 starts in the postseason so I doubt thats the difference between him being healthy and getting injured.

You keep talking about evidence. Where's the evidence that he'll be okay if he throw 260 innings this year?

Offline Tokeydog

  • Posts: 1220
  • I like beer!
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #851: August 17, 2012, 11:30:57 AM »
You really can't though.

I'm sure Marino thought the same thing. Nothing is promised in sports/life.

Doesn't hold water.  You are talking about a playoff system that is one and done.  Marino choked in the playoffs and it cost his team.  If a pitcher or team chokes in the first game of a full playoff series they have six games to over come that.  The same holds true for the length of the regular seasons.  Shorter season in the NFL leads to more likely hood of mistakes costing a post season birth.

This team has three top tier YOUNG starters.  A core of YOUNG offensive players that have only seemed to just figure out their true identities.  They have defense.  They have all three aspects needed for another push.  Now grant it, luck does play a part in it, but I'm a firm believer in you make your own luck.

Online GburgNatsFan

  • Posts: 13984
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #852: August 17, 2012, 11:37:33 AM »
I've heard it said that it's not the number of pitches thrown in an inning... it's the number of times you cool down and warm up (i.e., innings pitched).

It really has nothing to do with innings... it has to do with stress. If he was throwing 160 innings with 3 pitches per inning... he could easily go 200+ innings and there'd be no stress on his arm. It has more to do with how stressful the innings are/how many "bullets" he's wasting in those innings.

Lately, I've actually moved into the shut Strasburg down camp... specifically because I see his velocity dropping and his control starting to falter.

Today, I'm just playing the "what if?" card. I don't really know how I feel about shutting him down. Sometimes I want him to pitch the whole season, sometimes I want to cut him off at 160.

I'm just happy I don't have to make the decision.




Offline GMUNat

  • Posts: 5232
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #853: August 17, 2012, 11:38:54 AM »
You keep talking about evidence. Where's the evidence that he'll be okay if he throw 260 innings this year?

Thats a red herring. He could throw 190-200 IP including playoffs. I mean plenty of pitchers have done it in the past. I'm not going against that until I see studies proving that the benefits of reducing his load by 20 IP is worth the sacrifice in playoff chance

Offline Terpfan76

  • Posts: 3900
  • ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #854: August 17, 2012, 12:32:44 PM »
Thats a red herring. He could throw 190-200 IP including playoffs. I mean plenty of pitchers have done it in the past. I'm not going against that until I see studies proving that the benefits of reducing his load by 20 IP is worth the sacrifice in playoff chance

Hell, let's avoid the big picture and win now at all cost! Give me a break. Regardless of Tommy John surgery, he's already pitched more innings than in any year in his career, correct? So if he were not coming off surgery and just a young pitcher, I might be inclined to have him keep pitching or skip a start here and there, but that's not the case. He's a young pitcher coming off of surgery who also happes to be one of the biggest pitching prospects ever! Err to the side of caution when you're talking about a once in a generation talent. Throwing caution to the wind seems to be a fools errand.

Offline GMUNat

  • Posts: 5232
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #855: August 17, 2012, 12:51:11 PM »
Hell, let's avoid the big picture and win now at all cost! Give me a break. Regardless of Tommy John surgery, he's already pitched more innings than in any year in his career, correct? So if he were not coming off surgery and just a young pitcher, I might be inclined to have him keep pitching or skip a start here and there, but that's not the case. He's a young pitcher coming off of surgery who also happes to be one of the biggest pitching prospects ever! Err to the side of caution when you're talking about a once in a generation talent. Throwing caution to the wind seems to be a fools errand.

Adding 20 IP to his workload is not a win at all costs mentality. It might add 1-2% extra chance of injury but I bet thats worth it for 5-10% increase in WS odds.

Online tomterp

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 29269
  • Hell yes!
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #856: August 17, 2012, 12:57:31 PM »
Adding 20 IP to his workload is not a win at all costs mentality. It might add 1-2% extra chance of injury but I bet thats worth it for 5-10% increase in WS odds.

It might also add 20-30% chance of injury.   Still worth it?  How about 50%?  It seems that pitching on through after fatigue has set in would indicate sharply higher injury likelihood, and Stras looks to me like he's getting there fast.

Offline GMUNat

  • Posts: 5232
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #857: August 17, 2012, 01:00:08 PM »
It might also add 20-30% chance of injury.   Still worth it?  How about 50%?  It seems that pitching on through after fatigue has set in would indicate sharply higher injury likelihood, and Stras looks to me like he's getting there fast.

You would expect the average pitcher to have about a 20% chance to get injured. Adding 20% to add is increasing the odds to 24%. I think a WS opportunity is worth 4 percentage points of increased injury.

Online tomterp

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 29269
  • Hell yes!
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #858: August 17, 2012, 01:04:25 PM »
You would expect the average pitcher to have about a 20% chance to get injured. Adding 20% to add is increasing the odds to 24%. I think a WS opportunity is worth 4 percentage points of increased injury.

No, I mean going from 20 to 40%, so doubling the likelihood of injury.  Seems quite reasonable to me.

Offline Glockypoo

  • Posts: 746
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #859: August 17, 2012, 01:09:13 PM »
Adding 20 IP to his workload is not a win at all costs mentality. It might add 1-2% extra chance of injury but I bet thats worth it for 5-10% increase in WS odds.

Did you know 87% of statistics are made up on the spot?


Online tomterp

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 29269
  • Hell yes!
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #860: August 17, 2012, 01:11:25 PM »
Did you know 87% of statistics are made up on the spot?

Here at WNFF we call those "mindfacts".

In the absence of real facts, they'll suffice to carry on an argument.

Offline Glockypoo

  • Posts: 746
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #861: August 17, 2012, 01:12:47 PM »
Here at WNFF we call those "mindfacts".

In the absence of real facts, they'll suffice to carry on an argument.

I can dig it.


Offline GMUNat

  • Posts: 5232
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #862: August 17, 2012, 01:13:15 PM »
No, I mean going from 20 to 40%, so doubling the likelihood of injury.  Seems quite reasonable to me.

I refuse to believe that its that huge of a difference. Maybe if he threw 250 IP, but not 20 extra IP

Online tomterp

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 29269
  • Hell yes!
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #863: August 17, 2012, 01:49:11 PM »
I refuse to believe that its that huge of a difference. Maybe if he threw 250 IP, but not 20 extra IP

He only threw 24 innings last year.  24 to 180 is a HUGE increase.

Online GburgNatsFan

  • Posts: 13984
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #864: August 17, 2012, 02:04:58 PM »
You keep cluttering a thread of groundless, emotional argument with facts.

He only threw 24 innings last year.  24 to 180 is a HUGE increase.


Offline LostYudite

  • Posts: 758
  • Naaaa'aah-titude
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #865: August 17, 2012, 04:10:56 PM »
I refuse to believe that its that huge of a difference. Maybe if he threw 250 IP, but not 20 extra IP

20 extra IP as opposed to what?  There's so much strawman and mindfact in your argument here that it's kind of hard to separate it out.  First, let's take a realistic expectation of what he's likely to throw if he gets shut down at various points.  He's thrown 140 (actually 139.1) innings in 24 starts.  That's just under 6 per start.  Let's take an average of 5.83 ip/start, recognizing that noone can actually throw precisely .83 of an inning.  From now until the end of the year there are 42 games left.  A regular rotation means Strasburg will start 8-9 of them, depending on how the rotation falls.  Let's say 8*.  So, that means he's got 46.66 IP left in the regular season.  That puts him at 186 or thereabouts at the start of the playoffs.  So if you argue a threshold of 180, you're shutting him down literally one start short of the playoffs.

 If you're saving him for the playoffs, you're doing so because you want to use him.  He's definitely a Game 1 starter, right, else why push him?  Let's say for argument's sake that the Nats go all the way to the world series.  Depending on how many games each series is and what game you choose to start him, he's starting probably 6-7 games.  As few as 3-4, as many as 8-9, but let's say 6 as a point for argument.  So, more or less two starts per series.  Let's assume his IP/start remains unchanged.  So that's another 35 innings on top of the 186, or 221.  If the Nats get eliminated, it ends up being less than that, naturally.  If he goes deeper in playoff games, maybe it's more.  But it's not a matter of "20 extra IP."  A full playoff season on top of a full regular season would put him at 220 or so, on a young arm that has never gone more than 123 in a season.

Bottom line:  If you don't shut him down, his total IP is closer to 250 than it is 180.

*- folks who have argued a six-man rotation - a six man rotation at this point saves Stras 1 start, or 6 innings, at the cost of having John Lannan throw 40-ish innings in place of ZNN, Gio, EJ and Detwiler.

Nobody's saying that his arm falls off at 180 instead of 160.  Nobody's saying that he might not be able to go 220 IP.  But every inning is a risk.  Every inning on a tired arm is a higher risk.  Every high stress inning on a tired arm is an even higher risk.  Playoff-level stress on an arm that's tired and 80-100 IP higher than it's ever thrown before is an even higher risk.  But here's the problem:  There is no way to calculate that risk.  It could be fine.  He might win us the world series this year and do long-term damage such that he's not quite the same pitcher afterwards. 

I think too many folks think that this is a calculable risk, when it's not.  There is some greater-than-zero chance that he could get re-injured or do chronic damage such that he's a less effective pitcher going forward.  Balance that against some greater-than-zero chance that we are more likely to win the World Series with him.  Toss a coin, roll some bones and takes your chances and hope you make the right choice, because you'll never really know for sure.

For me, I shut him down at about 165-175.  Towards the sooner end if we are maintaining our lead, towards the higher end if the race gets tight.  But I get that you might be throwing away your best chance at a WS.  On balance, I think I'd rather make sure he's the same pitcher in 2013-15 even if that means next season is a tougher uphill climb.  And I get why others might think that's nuts - that you roll the dice the other way, hope he doesn't get hurt and reach for the chance when it's right in front of you.

Offline GMUNat

  • Posts: 5232
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #866: August 17, 2012, 04:50:43 PM »
He only threw 24 innings last year.  24 to 180 is a HUGE increase.

So why don't they shut him down right now? 24 to 140 IP is a huge risk and every inning from now he pitches is an injury waiting to happen.

Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 12052
  • Troll So Hard University
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #867: August 17, 2012, 05:46:56 PM »
Quality post, LY.

Offline wpa2629

  • Posts: 16830
  • No Trade Clause
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #868: August 17, 2012, 05:55:12 PM »
Holy Hell

I cannot believe we're still talking about this. The decision has been made, Stras is being shut down. That's it. There's nothing else to talk about.

With all this teeth gnashing and hither and yon about OMG they're going to shut Stras down, we're missing the ride.


We of the WNFF - Survivors of 300 losses in 3 season are fans of the Team with the BEST FRICKIN RECORD IN ALL OF BASEBALL. You don't get there because of just 1 player. There is more than enough talent on this club WITHOUT Strasburg to be serious contenders.


Natitude nages

Get some


Online DPMOmaha

  • Posts: 18829
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #869: August 17, 2012, 06:05:00 PM »
the conversation is just beginning...

Online sportsfan882

  • Posts: 90487
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #870: August 17, 2012, 07:50:53 PM »
lol, Dibble was on with Dukes and LaVar today. They asked him if the reason he was so salty is because the Nats/MASN fired him and he went off and eventually hung up on them. Then Dukes started calling him a nag. Pretty fun to listen to, especially past the 5 minute mark.

Quote
Dibble was asked to join LaVar Arrington and Chad Dukes to discuss the innings limit being imposed on Stephen Strasburg.

However, things got heated less than one minute into the interview when the former Major League pitcher felt he was under attack.

LaVar and Dukes, who said they were not attacking Dibble, were caught off-guard by his sudden hostility.

Dibble was recently critical of Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo’s decision to stick to the limit imposed on the young fireballer. When asked about his comments Dibble got defensive.

“I didn’t call in to defend what I say on my own radio show,” Dibble said. “If that’s why you have me on then you’re barking up the wrong tree.”

It was downhill from there and by the 7-minute mark Dibble abruptly hung up on the show.


http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/08/17/lavar-dukes-rob-dibble-gets-defensive-during-spirited-interview/

Online DPMOmaha

  • Posts: 18829
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #871: August 17, 2012, 07:59:27 PM »
What was he expecting when he went on in DC!

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 16443
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #872: August 17, 2012, 08:35:48 PM »
What was he expecting when he went on in DC!

when he left there was more hostility towards the front office and he was probably caught off guard by how much local media has bought in

Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 12052
  • Troll So Hard University
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #873: August 17, 2012, 09:23:19 PM »
What was he expecting when he went on in DC!

A talk show host that calls Bryce a "douche" and a talk show host that has never followed the Nats? :shrug:

Online PC

  • Posts: 44957
Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #874: August 22, 2012, 12:05:43 AM »
Strasburg: "I can either scour the internet or watch all the stuff being said on TV or I can just keep pitching and watch the Golf Channel."

Who wants to bet they'll be talking about Strasburg on the Golf Channel tomorrow? :lol: