Author Topic: Strasburg in October..  (Read 15547 times)

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Online Kevrock

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #350: July 06, 2012, 02:38:03 PM »
By the time he breaks down it's too late.

There is no "right answer" for this situation. I'm glad I'm not Rizzo. If he fries Strasburg's arm he'll get killed. If he shuts him down and doesn't win multiple WS rings in the next 5 years he'll get killed.

If Strasburg wants to pitch into the post-season he can make appeals to Rizzo and make the statement publicly that he refuses to be shut down.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #351: July 06, 2012, 02:40:03 PM »
By the time he breaks down it's too late.

There is no "right answer" for this situation. I'm glad I'm not Rizzo. If he fries Strasburg's arm he'll get killed. If he shuts him down and doesn't win multiple WS rings in the next 5 years he'll get killed.

If Strasburg wants to pitch into the post-season he can make appeals to Rizzo and make the statement publicly that he refuses to be shut down.

I can't imagine a worse position to be in as a GM, only hind sight will validate him either way

Online Baseball is Life

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #352: July 06, 2012, 03:12:49 PM »
Yup.  It's easy to be rational and smart right now, but none of us even knows how it will feel when it comes down to it.  As far as I'm concerned, the fact of the matter is if the team is in a Pennant/Championship race then SS will pitch as long as his health permits.  Rizzo has never set a specific cap because the cap will be however many innings he's pitched when he stops, whenever it is. 

Sub-Prediction:  If the Nats do make a postseason run and SS pitches, BiL will be 100% on board. 

Of course, I will support the team on the field and hope it all works out. But I would lose a lot respect for the management and I will shred Rizzo and Davey a new one unless somehow the doctors are on board. Put it down, PebbleBoy.

I don't know where the crap about how the team has never a set specific innings limit on him comes from. They've said it many times AND actually did it last year with JZimm.

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #353: July 06, 2012, 03:14:37 PM »
I can't imagine a worse position to be in as a GM, only hind sight will validate him either way

It's like anything else in life. You do what you think is right given the information you have. As long as you do the right thing, you never have to second guess yourself.

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #354: July 06, 2012, 03:15:44 PM »

If Strasburg wants to pitch into the post-season he can make appeals to Rizzo and make the statement publicly that he refuses to be shut down.

Do you really see Stras as that kind of person? I don't.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #355: July 06, 2012, 03:36:13 PM »
It's like anything else in life. You do what you think is right given the information you have. As long as you do the right thing, you never have to second guess yourself.

most decisions don't lead to millions second guessing you (if he keeps him pitching and stras blows out his arm, Rizzo is the villain, if he shuts him down and the team flames out in the first round and never does get a ring during this run, he's a villain), and no matter what he believes the right thing to be, it's still possible that history will prove him wrong, but you can go ahead and pretend it's a no brainier

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #356: July 06, 2012, 03:42:13 PM »
most decisions don't lead to millions second guessing you (if he keeps him pitching and stras blows out his arm, Rizzo is the villain, if he shuts him down and the team flames out in the first round and never does get a ring during this run, he's a villain), and no matter what he believes the right thing to be, it's still possible that history will prove him wrong, but you can go ahead and pretend it's a no brainier

It's a no-brainer if you put the health of your players first.  Otherwise, yes, it's much more complicated. But ultimately the only person you have to live is yourself. If you do the right thing according to your beliefs, then you can deal with the critics.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #357: July 06, 2012, 03:58:38 PM »
It's a no-brainer if you put the health of your players first.  Otherwise, yes, it's much more complicated. But ultimately the only person you have to live is yourself. If you do the right thing according to your beliefs, then you can deal with the critics.

In theory if Rizzo put the health of his players above everything else, we should forfeit the rest of the season correct?

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #358: July 06, 2012, 04:08:26 PM »
In theory if Rizzo put the health of his players above everything else, we should forfeit the rest of the season correct?

You lost me there, my friend. Please explain.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #359: July 06, 2012, 04:32:54 PM »
It's a no-brainer if you put the health of your players first.  Otherwise, yes, it's much more complicated. But ultimately the only person you have to live is yourself. If you do the right thing according to your beliefs, then you can deal with the critics.

Classic. There's a right way and a wrong way and anybody who's not on board with BiL is doing it wrong. Dude, I agree with you on this and you make me want to disagree just to nag you.  Are you this insufferable in your actual life?

The only reason you put the health of your players first is to maximize their contributions to the team over the length of their contract. Not because you have some religious belief about worrying about their health. If this were the last year of Stras contract, I sure as heck would be pitching him straight through.

Half smokes made an interesting point about four pages back on the staff having "career years" and the fact that ej may not be here next year. To me, that's the actual underlying question. I bet if we polled posters and asked how confident they were that rizzo was going to bring in a good #4, it would track closely with whether or not they think this is a go-for-it year. Thought experiment:  if you knew for a 100% certainty that the Nats were going to resign ej and/or bring in Greinke in the off-season, would that make you more or less likely to shut Stras down? I think there's an element of how much you trust the fo not to mess up 13-17 that underpins how much you want to go for it now.

On the career years thing, I don't think that's the case. They're having good years, but except for ej, they are developing into what they looked like they could be. I don't think any of them are having really outrageous outlier kinds of years.  That's what makes this so awesome.

But I totally agree that's it's a debatable decision - and it's become harder as the teams continued to do well.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #360: July 06, 2012, 04:44:50 PM »
You lost me there, my friend. Please explain.

Every play is an opportunity for a pulled hammy or a broken finger.  More serious injuries due to a fastball to the head or a liner off the face are also possible. 

My point is that there is always danger of injury in playing, so if Rizzo literally considered nothing but possible injuries to his players, there would be no point in playing any games. 

I'm just saying it's a tradeoff and you seem to be making it out like posters who want to see Stras in October are unethical (or at the very least obviously wrong)

Online MarquisDeSade

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #361: July 06, 2012, 04:46:17 PM »
Every play is an opportunity for a pulled hammy or a broken finger.  More serious injuries due to a fastball to the head or a liner off the face are also possible.

Thank you.  This person gets it.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #362: July 06, 2012, 04:54:47 PM »
We should stick with the argument Rizzo is making. Strasburg is still in rehab. Rehab for this condition says 160 innings this year, not more. It's prudent medical practice refined over 30+ years.

I personally think Rizzo is right, that the chance of ruining Stras's future is greater than the chance that Strasburg will be the difference maker on a deep drive into the playoffs.

Gio, Zimnn, and Jackson could take us as far as we are going to go anyway.

Every play is an opportunity for a pulled hammy or a broken finger.  More serious injuries due to a fastball to the head or a liner off the face are also possible. 

My point is that there is always danger of injury in playing, so if Rizzo literally considered nothing but possible injuries to his players, there would be no point in playing any games. 

I'm just saying it's a tradeoff and you seem to be making it out like posters who want to see Stras in October are unethical (or at the very least obviously wrong)


Offline tomterp

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #363: July 06, 2012, 04:55:46 PM »
Every play is an opportunity for a pulled hammy or a broken finger.  More serious injuries due to a fastball to the head or a liner off the face are also possible. 

My point is that there is always danger of injury in playing, so if Rizzo literally considered nothing but possible injuries to his players, there would be no point in playing any games. 

I'm just saying it's a tradeoff and you seem to be making it out like posters who want to see Stras in October are unethical (or at the very least obviously wrong)

There's normal risk from just playing, then there's the additional layer of risk of injury to a pitcher recovering from TJ or other serious medical procedures that result from a lack of overall conditioning.  I don't mean conditioning of the body in terms of cardio/strength, but in terms of toughening up all the mechanical shoulder and elbow joint components.  THere is widespread consensus that medically there should not be too sudden an increase in usage of the joints so as to give those components opportunity to toughen up.

Those insisting he should blow past the generally accepted guideline are disregarding this consensus or at least rationalizing their discounting of it in order to feed the beast now.

I expect that the arguments to extend Stras into the post season will be disregarded by Rizzo, I hope that he protects the Stras asset for the long haul, and I hope he plugs the hole in the rotation adequately for the postseason.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #364: July 06, 2012, 04:57:19 PM »
We should stick with the argument Rizzo is making. Strasburg is still in rehab. Rehab for this condition says 160 innings this year, not more. It's prudent medical practice refined over 30+ years.

I personally think Rizzo is right, that the chance of ruining Stras's future is greater than the chance that Strasburg will be the difference maker on a deep drive into the playoffs.

Gio, Zimnn, and Jackson could take us as far as we are going to go anyway.

Thank you.  This person gets it.





 8)

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #365: July 06, 2012, 04:57:29 PM »
If you really believed this, you would drive without airbags or seatbelts, because all risks for death in a car are the same, and there's no way to mitigate them.

Hammy injuries heal. I don't think  a second TJ surgeries has ever worked. I guess we can follow Todd Coffey's career to find out.

Thank you.  This person gets it.


Online MarquisDeSade

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #366: July 06, 2012, 04:59:32 PM »
If you really believed this, you would drive without airbags or seatbelts, because all risks for death in a car are the same, and there's no way to mitigate them.

I think driving blindfolded the wrong way is enough risk for me right now, thanks.  8)

Offline PebbleBall

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #367: July 06, 2012, 04:59:37 PM »
Of course, I will support the team on the field and hope it all works out. But I would lose a lot respect for the management and I will shred Rizzo and Davey a new one unless somehow the doctors are on board. Put it down, PebbleBoy.

I don't know where the crap about how the team has never a set specific innings limit on him comes from. They've said it many times AND actually did it last year with JZimm.


I really don't think a Rizzo quote with a specific limit exists.  Davey Johnson maybe, but not Rizzo.  And of course the doctors will be on board unless there is a legitimate issue by that point. That's how the whole thing will play out, and in the end it will be the obvious choice. 

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #368: July 06, 2012, 05:00:57 PM »
This person really gets it.


...and I hope he plugs the hole in the rotation adequately for the postseason.


Offline PebbleBall

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #369: July 06, 2012, 05:01:28 PM »
I don't think  a second TJ surgeries has ever worked. I guess we can follow Todd Coffey's career to find out.



Capuano, as Boz pointed out.  Hopefully this is never relevant to Strasburg.


Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #370: July 06, 2012, 05:01:50 PM »
Or on that spindly-ass front wheel. ;)
I think driving blindfolded the wrong way is enough risk for me right now, thanks.  8)


Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #371: July 06, 2012, 05:02:56 PM »
Tom: Yes there is more risk to Stras pitching in October, I agree.  There is also more reward than pitching a game in June. 

Also, most people are advocating resting him some during the season so he can pitch in October and still not go much over 160( or atleast much over say 180).  I have yet to hear people claim this would be medically irresponsible, it seems rejections to this strategy are based more on worrying about his effectiveness (due to rust?) or our ability to even make the playoffs if we have him skip a few starts.  But perhaps I'm wrong, is there medical opinion out there that this strategy would be dangerous?

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #372: July 06, 2012, 05:03:38 PM »
I don't know. Do you really think there will be an obvious choice? Unless Stras gets hurt before his anticipated shutdown in mid September, someone will always argue about it.

I really don't think a Rizzo quote with a specific limit exists.  Davey Johnson maybe, but not Rizzo.  And of course the doctors will be on board unless there is a legitimate issue by that point. That's how the whole thing will play out, and in the end it will be the obvious choice.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #373: July 06, 2012, 05:05:15 PM »
I've heard it both ways - some say it's dangerous, some say he could safely skip some starts. I don't think you could shut him down for six weeks, though. I think everyone I've listened to says that would be dangerous. Phil Wood and others on the MASR discussed this a few weeks ago.

Tom: Yes there is more risk to Stras pitching in October, I agree.  There is also more reward than pitching a game in June. 

Also, most people are advocating resting him some during the season so he can pitch in October and still not go much over 160( or atleast much over say 180).  I have yet to hear people claim this would be medically irresponsible, it seems rejections to this strategy are based more on worrying about his effectiveness (due to rust?) or our ability to even make the playoffs if we have him skip a few starts.  But perhaps I'm wrong, is there medical opinion out there that this strategy would be dangerous?


Offline PebbleBall

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #374: July 06, 2012, 05:13:45 PM »
I don't know. Do you really think there will be an obvious choice? Unless Stras gets hurt before his anticipated shutdown in mid September, someone will always argue about it.


Yes, I think there's an obvious choice.  It's going to come down to what Strasburg wants, what the players want, and what the fans want.  If he's healthy he probably won't even want to discuss it.  If the doctors ok it, and it benefits the team in a pennant race, I don't think they can turn it down.  It's an old argument and Boz totally dismissed it, but no matter how methodical and well built you are chances to win are ultimately unpredictable.  It's obviously not without risk but I think that in the situation the Nats were still at or near the top of the NL in September that at that point it will be an easy choice.

I was listening to the crowd in the 9th last night and thinking about this.  I honestly don't know which is more important to the future of the franchise - building on the momentum they have with the fans right now or being ultra careful with Strasburg.  You can shrug that off, but if they shut him down they're dealing with serious risk of damaging something they've worked on all season long on the field and off.