Author Topic: Strasburg in October..  (Read 14765 times)

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Offline LostYudite

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #250: July 06, 2012, 09:34:42 AM »
So let me turn it on you. Just because Strasburg keeps pitching in 2012 the team is guaranteed to lose the next five?

The way people talk about the future you could throw next years team out on the field with/without Strasburg and we'd still be a big time winner.

No.  But the issue is risk, since neither winning this year nor winning any of the next five is guaranteed.  To me, the logic of the argument goes like this:

1. We are more likely to win when Stras pitches, in 2012 or any year after
1a. Gio-znn-ej is not as good as Stras-gio-znn in a playoff rotation.
2. Throwing Stras 220-ish innings this year increases his risk of injury by an unknowable but significant amount.
2a. Throwing Stras 220-ish innings this year increase the chances of winning the WS this year by an unknowable but significant amount.
3. The 2013-2015 roster as compared to the likely rosters of the rest of the NL East suggests we're likely to be competitive for the NL East division for at least those three years, if not all the way to 2017.
3a. Those chances decrease significantly if Stras is hurt in the longer-term.

So if you accept those assumptions above, the argument is do you push all your chips to the center now and hope that he doesn't break to try to win right now, or do you play longer term, maybe make a move to add payroll (Greinke) and add an arm who can step in and fill the gap and take your chances?

My vote is no.  It's an "eat your vegetables" argument, but I think as good as we look this year, we're likely to be better 2013-2017.  Don't risk a dynasty for a one-year win.