Author Topic: Strasburg in October..  (Read 15007 times)

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Offline Kevrock

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #225: July 05, 2012, 03:44:35 PM »
It's not the number of innings, it's about slowly increasing the yearly inning total.

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #226: July 05, 2012, 03:49:18 PM »
It's not the number of innings, it's about slowly increasing the yearly inning total.

Or, in Kerry Wood's case, being overused and abused early on in your career.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #227: July 05, 2012, 04:02:14 PM »
And, yes, I think TJ and concussions are somewhat comparable in that they are career threatening.

Well, no.  I agree with you completely on all other points here, but let us not compare elbow and brain injuries.  Both are career threatening, but the latter threatens quality of life for the rest of your life.


Offline GMUNat

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #228: July 05, 2012, 05:14:21 PM »
Kerry Wood was also serious abused and overused by his HS coach.
I don't really see any evidence for that:



Grand Prairie, ranked No. 7 in the Baseball America/National High School Baseball Coaches Association poll, doesn't have to overuse Wood because the rest of its staff is more than solid. But he is the unquestioned ace of the 18-1 team.

Wood was 6-0, 0.70 and in his 30 innings, he had 59 strikeouts, 11 walks and had given up just seven hits. His top performance came in early April with a no-hit, 15-strikeout showing in a seven-inning victory over MacArthur.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/2012/2613425.html


For Grand Prairie, Kerry dominated in every sense of the word. He posted a spotless record of 14-0, with a 0.77 ERA and 152 strikeouts in 81 1/3 innings. The parking lot outside the school's baseball field was packed for every home game with rental cars, a sign of how hot of a prospect Kerry had become with big-league scouts. Chicago Cubs scouting director Al Goldis thought the senior was better than Dwight Gooden at the same age.

http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Wood/Wood_bio.html

Based on 14 starts assuming he won every start, his average start was under 6 IP. I guess where that came from was this passage:

Two days before the draft, Kerry threw 175 pitches in a doubleheader with Grand Prairie’s playoff hopes on the line. The Chicago brass was in an uproar.


I doubt pitching 81 IP in high school was overuse. Strasburg had outings with 120 pitches in college. Lots of college pitchers do, even 150 pitch outings.

Offline RL04

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #229: July 05, 2012, 05:21:24 PM »
Good to see the thread has now turned to replacing Stras in the rotation as opposed to extending him past his innings limit. But that's the reality and I'm pleased to see that most of us are now accepting it.

I haven't accepted it.   But I'm not for increasing his innings ... I'm for increasing his time.  Big difference.

The Post figures his innings are up around mid September.  I can't believe there isn't a way to extend him (ya know, miss a start here and there) so that he can pitch into October.


Offline aussienatsfan

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #230: July 05, 2012, 05:36:24 PM »
Rizzo is on sportscenter right now and is talking about how our position in the standings won't impact straz's innings pitched and also said his long-term well-being is far more important than the pennant race.

I'm intrigued to see what happens

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #231: July 05, 2012, 05:42:17 PM »
Two days before the draft, Kerry threw 175 pitches in a doubleheader with Grand Prairie’s playoff hopes on the line. The Chicago brass was in an uproar.


That is batcrap.

I've seen a kid throw like 145-160 recently and I wanted to cry.

Oh well, I hope Grand Prairie made the playoffs. Totally worth sacrificing a career for a High School Shampship. :roll:

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #232: July 05, 2012, 05:44:47 PM »
If you're comparing a HS championship to a mythical WS ring... That's not really a valid argument.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #233: July 05, 2012, 05:45:13 PM »
I haven't accepted it.   But I'm not for increasing his innings ... I'm for increasing his time.  Big difference.

The Post figures his innings are up around mid September.  I can't believe there isn't a way to extend him (ya know, miss a start here and there) so that he can pitch into October.



OK, then you need to accept that they won't increase his time or extend him. He will pitch every fifth day until 160 innings or so. That's the reality.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #234: July 05, 2012, 05:51:57 PM »
If you're comparing a HS championship to a mythical WS ring... That's not really a valid argument.

I wasn't comparing anything. I was calling Wood's coach a dipcrap.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #235: July 05, 2012, 05:57:02 PM »
On that, we agree!

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #236: July 05, 2012, 05:57:38 PM »
I wasn't comparing anything. I was calling Wood's coach a dipcrap.

And not unusual...when the HS coache sees glory in his front of his eyes, somehow the health of the player gets overlooked. Sort of like what some are doing with Stras. So I guess I'm comparing.

Offline Wheat

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #237: July 05, 2012, 06:20:48 PM »
Rizzo is on sportscenter right now and is talking about how our position in the standings won't impact straz's innings pitched and also said his long-term well-being is far more important than the pennant race.

I'm intrigued to see what happens

I honestly believe even if they are fighting or in the playoffs...he will be shut down. They believe in their long term plan.

Offline PatsNats28

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #238: July 05, 2012, 06:42:36 PM »
Without reading through the thread, has anyone proposed shutting down Stras extra early (like at 140 innings) and then using him again in October? Obviously not straight back, with like a start or two at the end of the season, but that could be a better way to use his innings limit. Almost like he was DLed from the beginning of August to the end of September.

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #239: July 05, 2012, 06:47:41 PM »
Without reading through the thread, has anyone proposed shutting down Stras extra early (like at 140 innings) and then using him again in October? Obviously not straight back, with like a start or two at the end of the season, but that could be a better way to use his innings limit. Almost like he was DLed from the beginning of August to the end of September.

I think the goal is for him to be on a regular schedule and remain consistant with it. Now if they skip a start here in there? I don't know, but I'd doubt it. I really wanna believe that we are WS contenders, but is getting deep into the playoffs werth potentially sacrificing Strasburg's future?

Offline PatsNats28

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #240: July 05, 2012, 06:52:52 PM »
I'm relatively okay with the decision to shut him down, but I was just wondering if there were other ways the innings limit could be achieved.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #241: July 05, 2012, 07:01:02 PM »
And not unusual...when the HS coache sees glory in his front of his eyes, somehow the health of the player gets overlooked. Sort of like what some are doing with Stras. So I guess I'm comparing.


Same applies to a lot of college programs- that's why I think high school pitchers are better off going pro if the get the shot

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #242: July 05, 2012, 07:02:57 PM »
Shutting down and re-starting would likely be worse than having him go the whole season.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #243: July 06, 2012, 06:35:01 AM »
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/nationals-should-take-no-chances-with-stephen-strasburgs-innings-limit/2012/07/05/gJQAbS6TQW_story.html

Nobody has posted the Boswell column yet?  He says shutting him down is the right call.  Strasburg is too good and has already shown too much propensity for weird or worrying injury to take any chances and pushing him past a moderate increase on the number of innings he has pitched before. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #244: July 06, 2012, 07:56:05 AM »
Without reading through the thread, has anyone proposed shutting down Stras extra early (like at 140 innings) and then using him again in October? Obviously not straight back, with like a start or two at the end of the season, but that could be a better way to use his innings limit. Almost like he was DLed from the beginning of August to the end of September.


Riffing on the discussion of rubber armed relievers and restructuring rotations ( http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/latroy-hawkins-and-dave-camerons-radical-proposal/#comment-2873702 ) , I wonder if the Nats might be tempted to severely cut back Strasburg's innings per start to one trip through the batting order in September and then use a tag team of relievers when the roster expands.  Seems with Gorzo, Detwiler, and Stammen, we could probably tag team some games.  The advantage of this would be to not put too many stressful innings on Strasburg's arm and to keep him active so he could go back to 5 - 6 innings starts in the playoffs, perhaps once a week / series.


I think this thread is mixing up a couple of concepts when discussing his max innings.  There are some folks who are arguing about the  Verducci effect and bumping up too many innings as a young pitcher.  That concept is more general.  What we have  here is not only a young pitcher  who had not thrown a ton of innings in prior years.  He is also a TJ recovery case.  That heightens the risk of overstressing an arm.  Verlander in 2006 is not the right comparison because he was not coming off of TJ.  I do think the innings could be nursed a bit, like the quote above, unless even that approach is contrary to medical advise.  Go with the best docs views.

Offline ILaylowFoShow

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #245: July 06, 2012, 08:00:12 AM »
I read Boswell's article......And As much as i would like to agree...I simply cannot.....Yes, I agree with a longterm plan.....I also agree with protecting your investment.....But I also think the babying of Strasburg is going to hurt him more than help him....Sometimes its almost comical.....He is a man, a ballplayer....There is nothing you can do to prevent injuries besides not playing at all.....Pitchers get sore shoulders,sore arms, sore elbows because pitching is not a natural motion....but I believe that sometimes you have to let a guy play...Now I am not saying that you let him act like Verlander and pitch complete games with 120+ pitches every start, but let him pitch.....And the one thing no one talks about is how HE feels about it....We always talk about the Nationals future and how the organization feels...What about Stephen? How does he feel about the possibility of not having the opportunity to pitch in the first playoff game in Washington Nationals History and the first Playoff game in DC in almost 100 years? How does he feel about putting in the work and not getting the opportunity to show the world what he can do? You gotta think about that too...We can say that we will be fine with Gio, Zim,Jackson and Detwiler....Others will say, we will make trades to get another starter for the playoffs....But your only going to get an expiring contract who won't sign with us, and your going to give up prospects in the process, which is MORE important to me...We gave away alot to get Gio in our farm system, lets not do that again because this year we are reaping the benefits of having a healthy farm system.....

And you don't go into the playoffs and shutdown a guy who helped get you there, its not fair to him and its not fair to the team......If anything, from this point on, if this inning count is a big deal, is you circumvent the system. Only let him pitch 4-5 inning a game in the second half...Allow him to skip a start or 2 ( and have him simulate in the bullpen to keep his arm in rhythm)...and lastly, you teach him to NOT try and strike everyone out...Pitch count is more important than inning count, teach him to pitch for contact so you can get through innings faster, a strikeout counts them same as a grounder or fly out....and its faster....Just my 2 Cents...I believe this team has the talent to do something special this year and you need your #1 in the postseason...

Offline Sharp

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #246: July 06, 2012, 08:14:02 AM »
I wish people would stop repeating the "strikeouts means high pitch counts" myth.  Unless you are Greg Maddux or Mariano Rivera and can hit your spots almost every time (and get a bigger strike zone than everyone else, to boot), odds are that over time the lower pitch count in individual plate appearances will be counterbalanced by more batters faced (so now you have the same-ish pitch count but you're pitching worse).  If you really want to be efficient, you have to limit walks at an elite level like Zimmermann.  People trying to change how Strasburg pitches or do weird things to his routine just to try to get him a couple of starts in the playoffs is something I'd be a lot more concerned about, frankly, than letting him sit them out this year.  He's one of the most brilliant young pitchers in history and he's pitching for the Nats--why are we so eager to freak everything up?

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #247: July 06, 2012, 08:24:03 AM »
Because people are morons.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #248: July 06, 2012, 08:30:05 AM »
I read Boswell's article......And As much as i would like to agree...I simply cannot.....Yes, I agree with a longterm plan.....I also agree with protecting your investment.....But I also think the babying of Strasburg is going to hurt him more than help him....Sometimes its almost comical.....He is a man, a ballplayer....There is nothing you can do to prevent injuries besides not playing at all.....Pitchers get sore shoulders,sore arms, sore elbows because pitching is not a natural motion....but I believe that sometimes you have to let a guy play...Now I am not saying that you let him act like Verlander and pitch complete games with 120+ pitches every start, but let him pitch.....And the one thing no one talks about is how HE feels about it....We always talk about the Nationals future and how the organization feels...What about Stephen? How does he feel about the possibility of not having the opportunity to pitch in the first playoff game in Washington Nationals History and the first Playoff game in DC in almost 100 years? How does he feel about putting in the work and not getting the opportunity to show the world what he can do? You gotta think about that too...We can say that we will be fine with Gio, Zim,Jackson and Detwiler....Others will say, we will make trades to get another starter for the playoffs....But your only going to get an expiring contract who won't sign with us, and your going to give up prospects in the process, which is MORE important to me...We gave away alot to get Gio in our farm system, lets not do that again because this year we are reaping the benefits of having a healthy farm system.....

And you don't go into the playoffs and shutdown a guy who helped get you there, its not fair to him and its not fair to the team......If anything, from this point on, if this inning count is a big deal, is you circumvent the system. Only let him pitch 4-5 inning a game in the second half...Allow him to skip a start or 2 ( and have him simulate in the bullpen to keep his arm in rhythm)...and lastly, you teach him to NOT try and strike everyone out...Pitch count is more important than inning count, teach him to pitch for contact so you can get through innings faster, a strikeout counts them same as a grounder or fly out....and its faster....Just my 2 Cents...I believe this team has the talent to do something special this year and you need your #1 in the postseason...

Bos said it best: "Excuse me while I go beat my head against a wall."

Everybody has indeed talked about HE feels about it, including Bos in his article. "Exploiting Strasburg's enhusiasm (and he'd pitch until he drops) is just plain wrong."

I guess it fun (for others) to discuss this but the reality is that he will be shut down in mid-September, like the team has been saying all along.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Strasburg in October..
« Reply #249: July 06, 2012, 08:45:34 AM »
I go back and forth on this, shutting him down is probably best long term both for Strasburg and the team, and I have little doubt that is what will happen, at the same time, shutting down your ace at the tail end of the best season in team history on the assumption that this is the start of a something big/we'll be back next year seems like poking the baseball gods in the eye with a pointy stick