You saw my next post, right? I think there's a chance we sneak into the second wild card spot... maybe. But I don't think there's any way this team is in the running without that fortuitously-timed change.
I did - and I think you're probably right, but I actually think we could be in the running for the first wild-card spot too. The important thing isn't really just runs scored - it's run differential. If we can score about 75-80 more than we give up, that puts us in about an 89-90 expected wins. 90 wins puts you right in the wild card and division race, usually and should lock up the second wild card.
So, really, you can start with how great you think the pitching is going to be and work backwards. sit depends also on how great you think the pitching's going to be. Putting aside Philly's ridiculous 529 from last year, the lowest over the past few years are in the 580-ish range. If you presume we're good enough to be where SF was the last few years, you could put us at 575. 75-80 runs puts us at 650. If we hit that, we should be in the 90 win range, which should put us close to the #1 WC.
The cool part about looking at it that way is that it gives you a rough approx of wins based on runs scored. If we peg our runs against at 575, then it works like this:
600 runs: 84 wins
625: 87 wins
650: 90 wins
675: 93 wins
700: 96 wins
And it scales. So if you happen to think that there's no reason we can't do what the Phillies did last year, adn you want to be aggressive in your guess about how few we're going to give up, you can peg us at 530 runs, and then slide accordingly:
555: 84 wins
605: 90, etc.
Anyway, this is a very long-winded way to say I mostly agree with you, but I think it depends on what you think the pitching will do. That's also why I'm so worried about the offense right now. The pitching simply can't be this great over the course of a full season, so any reasonable expectation of what they will be requires that the offense get a lot better in a hurry.
Disclaimer: Before I get accused of statistical needledickery, yes, these numbers don't matter if they don't actually perform to them on the field, and yes, there is some built in variance in the real-world, such that a +50 run differential could reasonably be anywhere from 85-89 wins, and +75 could be 88-92, etc. or even a little better or worse if they have a particularly lucky or unlucky season.