How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)

[MarquisDeSade]

Honestly the LoD is just a bunch of realistic people with expectations tempered by experience.  I think you're the only person on the entire forum who actually takes any of this stuff even remotely seriously.

Precisely the reason why I have Bozo 4 Life on ignore.

[nobleisthyname]

I'd be willing to make a gentlemanly wager on JZ's chances of getting an all-star nod if Knorr feels like making it interesting.  I like JZ and I think he's gonna have an awesome year, but we're talking about the Nationals.  I just don't think the popularity/exposure is there yet.

Honestly the LoD is just a bunch of realistic people with expectations tempered by experience.  I think you're the only person on the entire forum who actually takes any of this stuff even remotely seriously.

Meh, I'm still new here but I have seen a ton of unrealistic "LoD" claims. I've already seen some of them make complete asses of themselves. The "worst offensive performance ever" thread from last year comes to mind. Adam LaRoche making OD is another recent one.

I don't necessarily agree with the Shiner point of view either. I'm just throwing my two cents in as I procrastinate on my work. 

[houston-nat]

Is it bad that my first thought reading the original post's article was, "This can't have been written by Lorb Bubbletrousers"?

[The Chief]

Meh, I'm still new here but I have seen a ton of unrealistic "LoD" claims. I've already seen some of them make complete asses of themselves. The "worst offensive performance ever" thread from last year comes to mind. Adam LaRoche making OD is another recent one.

Cite examples that aren't from PC or sportsfan.  Also you need to understand that the "Worst performance" thread is a vent thread and nothing more.  It's also PC's baby.

[zimm_da_kid]

strasburg is a freaking god

[imref]

I'll be very happy with Zimm and Strasburg in the ASG.  I'll be ecstatic if we send anyone else (JZ, GG, Lidge, Clippard, Desmond, Ramos could all get there this year)

[imref]

Kilgore notes a milestone today, the kid gloves are off - Strasburg is a pitcher now:

NEW YORK – The delicate treatment of Stephen Strasburg ended Wednesday afternoon. In the sixth inning, with the tying run on second base, the Washington Nationals chose competition over precaution. There was no other pitcher they wanted on the mound, and so, even as Strasburg crossed a new threshold, the Nationals left him out there.

As his pitch count surpassed 100 for the first time as a professional, Strasburg handled the most crucial moment of the Nationals’ 4-0 victory over the New York Mets himself. With his 107th pitch, Strasburg struck out Jason Bay with a fastball over the outside corner. With his 108th, Josh Thole ended the rally with a flyball to left field. Strasburg walked off the mound. Two base runners skulked off the field. The bullpen gate stayed shut.

“He’s just one of the guys now,” Manager Davey Johnson said. “I’m going to handle him just like he’s perfectly healthy, and he had plenty left in the tank there.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/nationals-vs-mets-stephen-strasburg-dominates-in-4-0-victory/2012/04/11/gIQAC1r9AT_story.html

[BrandonK]

GOAT

[DPMOmaha]

Of course, he also racked up season-ending surgery faster than most starters in history. Until he proves he can stay healthy for a season, I'm expecting nothing from Strasburg. Any win, strikeout, or quality start from him I consider a bonus, not something the team should count on.

No, most just do it in relative obscurity in A or AA ball. He just happens to be a phenom who did it vs the defending NL champs.  Far from unique in that category.

[spidernat]

Meh, I'm still new here but I have seen a ton of unrealistic "LoD" claims. I've already seen some of them make complete asses of themselves. The "worst offensive performance ever" thread from last year comes to mind. Adam LaRoche making OD is another recent one.

Those are vent/joke threads.

[MarquisDeSade]

Those are vent/joke threads.

This guy reminds me of Sharp.  He'll start to get the cynicism soon enough.

[PC]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Stephen-Strasburg-Washington-Nationals-Johan-Santana-pitch-count-041112

NEW YORK

In the top of the sixth inning Wednesday at Citi Field, Washington Nationals manager Davey Johnson faced the first of what will likely be many difficult decisions regarding his ace Stephen Strasburg this season.

The New York Mets, whose bats had been held in check for most of the first five innings, had come to life — comparatively speaking, at least — and put runners on first and second with one out and No. 5 hitter Jason Bay at the plate. The Nationals, whose lumber had been held similarly silent by Mets starter Johan Santana, held a slim 1-0 lead.

More importantly, though, Strasburg was sitting at a career-high 102 pitches for the afternoon.

Johnson could have taken Strasburg out. In fact, he probably should have, and normally he would have. After all, the hard-throwing righty — making just his seventh start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2010 — had never thrown more than 99 pitches in a major league game, a decision that was a matter of design, not coincidence. Johnson never specified what his pre-determined pitch limit is for his young star, but he did refer to “100” as though that is the magic number he won’t allow him to eclipse.

But he didn’t. Instead, Johnson — who compared Strasburg to Dwight Gooden on Tuesday — sent pitching coach Steve McCatty to the mound for a visit, to calm the 23-year-old’s nerves and give him a breather, not take the ball from his hands.

“It’s early in the year, and I generally don’t like when a guy is at the end of his pitch limit for me, for me to put him over it; I’m very conservative in that regard,” Johnson said of his decision to ignore his own pre-determined pitch count and leave Strasburg in.

“But he didn’t win his first game, and I know he wouldn’t have liked to have left runners on that could have given him an L. So I let him go. It’s that simple.”

And over the next six pitches, Strasburg rewarded his manager for his faith. He struck out Bay, his ninth and final strikeout of the afternoon, and coaxed a pop-out out of catcher Josh Thole, neutralizing what turned out to be a minor threat and ending his second start of the year on his terms — and in line for his first win of the season.

“As a starter it’s the worst feeling getting taken out in the middle of an inning and not being able to finish it,” Strasburg said. “I don’t like it, and I bet if you asked any other starter in here, they’d tell you they don’t like it either. You don’t want to go 5 1/3 innings, you want to go six or seven or eight or nine.”

The Nationals bullpen held strong over the final three innings and Strasburg, who allowed just two hits over six innings while walking three, earned his seventh career victory in a 4-0 shutout of the host Mets.

“Bottom line, you want to go out there and do everything you can to give your team a chance,” Strasburg said. “Whether the score’s 1-0 or 9-8, as long as it’s a win, it’s a win. I didn’t want to go out there and give it up, so that’s why I wanted to bear down and focus and get out of the inning. That’s what all the great pitchers in the league do.”

It’s too early to tell whether Strasburg will evolve into an all-time great — after all, he’s only started 19 career games — though utterly dominant performances like Wednesday’s would suggest that he’s got the potential.

That said, if we’ve learned anything about Strasburg, a college phenom at San Diego State who wowed fans and scouts alike with a sizzling fastball that was clocked as high as 103 miles per hour, it’s that nothing is a given.

He was fast-tracked through the minors — he made 11 starts at the AA and AAA levels, a mere formality — and started a grand total of 12 big league games in 2010, compiling a 5-3 record and 2.91 ERA before a torn ulnar collateral ligament and that fateful Tommy John surgery ended his sparkling rookie campaign early.

The procedure and subsequent rehab kept Strasburg out of commission until the final month of 2011, but in five September starts he didn’t appear to have lost a beat. He went 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA, allowing just four earned runs and striking out 24 batters in 24 innings pitched — while never throwing more than 79 pitches in a game.

But a true test of Strasburg’s recovery will come this season, when we see what the young hurler can do with a full year in the rotation — and if he can even make it through a full year, unencumbered by injuries, to begin with.

“I want to be that guy, that horse in the rotation that can go out there and hopefully get to the seventh or eighth inning every time,” Strasburg said. “It’s something that I’m working toward, and it’s a goal of mine.”

In his first start of 2012, Strasburg picked up where he left off last year, striking out five batters while holding the Cubs to one run on five hits in an efficient seven innings — he threw just 82 pitches — on Opening Day at Wrigley Field.

Wednesday’s masterful performance lowered his ERA to 0.69 through 13 innings of work and gave him 108 reasons to believe it can and will only get better from here.

“To go out there and know that your manager has confidence in you to get through the innings despite your pitch count, that’s huge,” said Strasburg, who said he felt comfortable throwing 100 pitches and that he did it in “pretty much every start” in college.

“By no means was I thinking in the back of my head (today), ‘Oh, how many pitches am I at?’ I wanted to go out there and keep the team in the ballgame as long as I could and stay out there and keep battling until they took the ball out of my hands.”

And his manager, at least Wednesday, wasn’t about to do that.

“There was plenty left in the tank there, and I’d have probably had to strangle him to get a hold of the ball to get it out of his hand,” Johnson said of his uber-competitive ace. “I didn’t want to fight him on the mound.”

[Baseball is Life]

Honestly the LoD is just a bunch of realistic people with expectations tempered by experience.  I think you're the only person on the entire forum who actually takes any of this stuff even remotely seriously.

You're kidding, right? I do the whole SSS thing tongue-in-cheek, to the hilt, over the top and you think I take it seriously?

Comedy is harder then they said, apparently.

Well at least I can take solace in the fact that I don't resort to name calling and threatening to block other posters. Now those are the people that take it seriously.

[Nathan]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Stephen-Strasburg-Washington-Nationals-Johan-Santana-pitch-count-041112

stud.

[wpa2629]

[Sharp]

This guy reminds me of Sharp.  He'll start to get the cynicism soon enough.

How can I be cynical when our team is leading the NL East in run differential?  Plus we actually went out and solved our starting pitching problem this year!

[RL04]

Wood had a solid 2.77-to-1 ratio. Nomo came in at a ratio of 2.80-to-1. Prior was easily the best of the three, at a very nice 3.91-to-1.

And yet he was nowhere close to Strasburg. The Washington right-hander managed an eye-popping 5.81-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

In his two best seasons, Tom Seaver had a four-to-one ratio.

Over a 20-year career, Seaver was three-to-one!

[MarquisDeSade]

How can I be cynical when our team is leading the NL East in run differential?  Plus we actually went out and solved our starting pitching problem this year!

Too bad the offense is still flaccid.

[swirvi]

I've heard talk before about possibly having a 6 man rotation to ensure SS would be available throughout the entire season.  The problem is you limit the other pitchers and you end up watering down your rotation.

I wonder if anyone has considered simply moving him back a start every cycle.  Essentially, you would get him in every 6 starts, but all other pitchers would still pitch every 5.  It would look like this:

1,2,3,4,5,2 // 1,3,4,5,2,3 // 1,4,5,2,3,4 // 1,5,2,3,4,5 // 1,2,3,4,5,2 // etc....

You can see that every cycle results in one pitcher going on 4 games' rest instead of the usual 5, but then they would go back to their normal 5 games' rest until their "turn" is up again.  In the above example, GG would pitch on game 2 and then on game 6.  That wouldn't happen to him again until game 26 and game 30.  So every 24 games, a pitcher would get a bit more work that week...which isn't that bad at all. 

This would ensure we get Strassy until the end of the season and we would avoid watering down the rotation with a 6th pitcher.

My question is would this work and why hasn't anyone played with this notion a bit more?  I have to think that when we are shutting down SS in August and are a couple games out or ahead in the wild card race, we are going to wish we had him...

[Slateman]

They've said it before and they'll keep saying it

We're not freaking with Strasburg. He starts when he starts. He'll go his normal every fifth day. When he's done, he's done.

[Kevrock]

Against it. It's hard enough for pitchers to adjust from a 7 day schedule (college / Japan) to a 5 day schedule (MLB).

This is making things overly complicated for Strasburg's arm, as well as screwing with other pitchers schedules as well.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Paging Rob Dibble...

[LostYudite]

I have to think that when we are shutting down SS in August and are a couple games out or ahead in the wild card race, we are going to wish we had him...

First - what the rest of them said.  The team has said they're not going to do it because it messes with Stras' psyche and the rest of the team and it's not worth the trouble.  So this is purely an academic discussion (unlike all the other discussions on the forum, which you know, the team listens to, right?).

I'm not getting the utility of Stras starts in September vs. Stras starts in July.  As a matter of probability, if we presume that Stras gives us X% chance more to win his starts than whoever the #5/#6 guy is (Wang/Detwiler), then what difference does it make whether he pitches those games in July or September? 

Sure, we might wish in August that we had him to go longer if we're a couple games up.  But - the problem isn't when he pitches, the problem (from a "win now" point of view) is that he's innings-limited.  He's going to go 160-ish or so whether he pitches those innings in July or September.  So what difference does it make if he pitches them in one month or another?  Either way, Detwiler, Wang, Lannan, somebody is going to have start 5-10 games in Stras' spot somewhere along the way.

The only way it makes sense to me is if you actually start to slow him down to try to make him available for the playoffs, but even that doesn't make sense, because then you're limiting how many innings he's going to pitch in the regular season, hurting your chances of making the playoffs in the first place.

Bottom line:  Enjoy his outings while they last, hope he doesn't hurt himself further, and lookout for the 200 IP monster in 2013.

[1995hoo]

Sounds similar to the way Casey Stengel held back pitchers (most notably Whitey Ford) because he wanted a particular guy to pitch in a particular ballpark or against a particular opponent or the like.

[tomterp]

First - what the rest of them said.  The team has said they're not going to do it because it messes with Stras' psyche and the rest of the team and it's not worth the trouble.  So this is purely an academic discussion (unlike all the other discussions on the forum, which you know, the team listens to, right?).

I'm not getting the utility of Stras starts in September vs. Stras starts in July.  As a matter of probability, if we presume that Stras gives us X% chance more to win his starts than whoever the #5/#6 guy is (Wang/Detwiler), then what difference does it make whether he pitches those games in July or September? 

Sure, we might wish in August that we had him to go longer if we're a couple games up.  But - the problem isn't when he pitches, the problem (from a "win now" point of view) is that he's innings-limited.  He's going to go 160-ish or so whether he pitches those innings in July or September.  So what difference does it make if he pitches them in one month or another?  Either way, Detwiler, Wang, Lannan, somebody is going to have start 5-10 games in Stras' spot somewhere along the way.

The only way it makes sense to me is if you actually start to slow him down to try to make him available for the playoffs, but even that doesn't make sense, because then you're limiting how many innings he's going to pitch in the regular season, hurting your chances of making the playoffs in the first place.
Bottom line:  Enjoy his outings while they last, hope he doesn't hurt himself further, and lookout for the 200 IP monster in 2013.

Sanity.