Author Topic: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)  (Read 14482 times)

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Offline LostYudite

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #200: June 14, 2012, 12:31:45 PM »
Yeah, we've been over this about 10 times.  A six-man rotation messes with everybody's rhythm.  It also takes starts away from the better starters (Stras and Gio) and gives them to worse starters (Wang and Detwiler).  It also doesn't really help THAT much with Stras' innings limit. 

The whole point of all of this rotation-fellation is to try to extend Stras into the playoffs.  The playoffs themselves, presuming we make it to the WS (and really, if we're doing all this with Stras, I think any other presumption is dumb) would add at least 25-40 innings to Stras at a minimum, figuring he makes two-three starts per series and goes 6-7 in each start.  And it would require him starting repeatedly on three-days rest.  The biggest risk you can take with his arm is to radically shift how he's prepping - to go from a six man rotation to throwing 40 innings on three days rest is really risky, in my view.

And even if you go to a six-man rotation, it doesn't help that much.  Stras is averaging just about exactly six innings per start right now.  If he went the whole season and made 33 starts (on a normal 5-man rotation), that would be 198 innings.  Plus 30 or so for the playoffs and you're at 230-ish.  Switch to a six-man, and maybe he makes 30 starts instead of thirty three.  That saves 18 innings, so now he's pitching 212-215-ish.  In the meantime, that's three more starts that Wang is making, three more starts that Detwiler is making, etc.

And all of that presumes that you don't really intend to shut him down at any point.  If you want him for the playoffs, you're basically looking at throwing him MORE THAN DOUBLE the innings that he's EVER thrown in his career less than one year after TJ surgery.  It's basically saying "I don't care if we have him for 2013-2017.  I don't care if he's the next Mark Prior.  I want to win in 2012 so bad that I don't care if his arm snaps off at the shoulder."

Sure, it's a view.  In my view, it's plain irresponsible and a bad strategy.  I'd rather overpay for Greinke, slot him in, shut down Stras and take our shot at 2012 that way.