Author Topic: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)  (Read 7918 times)

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Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #200: June 14, 2012, 08:37:48 AM »
Responding just encourages them.

I should know better than to feed the trolls. I'm working on it.

Some people just refuse to be happy no matter what.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #201: June 14, 2012, 08:40:30 AM »
Agreed with the first part, they are smart in the way they are handling him not letting him go out, disagree with the limit.  They will find some way to start him if, sorry when, we are playing huge games in September, they might skip a start or two during the year for these types of things, but I really don't see them taking out the best (at the very least top 3) pitcher in baseball in a playoff chase.  I could also see him going on the DL for some ridiculous non-injury so they don't have to break the innings limit in September.

All we've heard from the FO and Davey is that they want to run him out there every fifth day and when he's done, he's done. I just don't see them changing their thinking no matter what kind of pennant race they're in. I'm willing to take friendly bets on it but no one is taking me up on it.

Offline Smithian

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #202: June 14, 2012, 08:42:50 AM »
If they do shut him down then I'll grit my teeth and accept it.

IF we make the playoffs then Gio is still a true ace and behind him ZNN and Edwin Jackson can win you important games.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #203: June 14, 2012, 08:47:40 AM »
If they do shut him down then I'll grit my teeth and accept it.


Nats fans have gotten used to that.

Offline Slateman

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #204: June 14, 2012, 08:49:39 AM »
He's no Matt Cain ....

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #205: June 14, 2012, 09:40:52 AM »
Smithian, the team is fallible. They are not perfect as you seem to think.

It's ok not to just always accept all the BS they shovel us.

Offline loshjott

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #206: June 14, 2012, 09:55:48 AM »
So, on the one hand we're complaining that Strasburg won't be available in September in the pennant race and on the other we're complaining about lifting him early for these silly reasons.

Every inning he misses in June because of a hang nail or whatever is another inning he can pitch in September. I hope next time he gets lifted after 6 because of an untied shoelace.

Offline Slateman

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #207: June 14, 2012, 10:25:32 AM »
Not that I don't like Strasburg, but he is getting babyed. You look at what guys like Cain, Bumgarner, Dickey, ect and they're going deep in to ball games. Strasburg isn't yet. He's being asked to go 6 innings. That's it. Those guys I mentioned ... their teams are counting on them to go deep in to games.

So, on the one hand we're complaining that Strasburg won't be available in September in the pennant race and on the other we're complaining about lifting him early for these silly reasons.

Every inning he misses in June because of a hang nail or whatever is another inning he can pitch in September. I hope next time he gets lifted after 6 because of an untied shoelace.

You say that, but what if it's a one run game. 7th inning rolls around and Stammen or Lidge are on the mound and they give up a two run bomb. Would you rather have an extra inning of Strasburg in September in exchange for a loss today?

Offline Kevrock

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #208: June 14, 2012, 10:46:22 AM »
Was it a one run game yesterday?

Offline Slateman

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #209: June 14, 2012, 10:50:09 AM »
Was it a one run game yesterday?

No, but what about the next time?

Offline Kevrock

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #210: June 14, 2012, 11:15:48 AM »
He went 7 innings the last time he pitched a close game (vs. ATL), so why would I expect it to be different next time?

Offline Slateman

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #211: June 14, 2012, 11:26:19 AM »
He went 7 innings the last time he pitched a close game (vs. ATL), so why would I expect it to be different next time?

Did he get a hang nail?

Offline Tim Cullen

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #212: June 14, 2012, 11:50:48 AM »
Someone posted this idea at the bottom of this column on Strasburg's inning limit:
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/6/14/3084006/stephen-strasburg-innings-limit-cap-washington-nationals

They wondered if we should bring Detwiler back into the rotation to extend Strasburg's inning limit.


Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #213: June 14, 2012, 11:52:32 AM »
I'd rather give Det the occassional spot start for Stras rather than go to a six-man rotation and mess up EJax, ZimmNN and Gio.

Offline comish4lif

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #214: June 14, 2012, 11:55:58 AM »
Isn't there already a thread on rotation length?

Offline welch

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #215: June 14, 2012, 12:06:05 PM »
Isn't there already a thread on rotation length?


Yes. Several of us have been tossing around ideas, all hoping to find a way for Strassburg to pitch in post-season. One has investigated why and when the 5-man rotation came to be. (Lazy as I am, I was just about to volunteer to check a slew of old box scores to see how the rotation of the '69 Mets, the  '75 Red, '78 Yankees, and the '86 Mets.)

There are some valuable posts on how pitchers recover from a start.


Offline LostYudite

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #216: June 14, 2012, 12:31:45 PM »
Yeah, we've been over this about 10 times.  A six-man rotation messes with everybody's rhythm.  It also takes starts away from the better starters (Stras and Gio) and gives them to worse starters (Wang and Detwiler).  It also doesn't really help THAT much with Stras' innings limit. 

The whole point of all of this rotation-fellation is to try to extend Stras into the playoffs.  The playoffs themselves, presuming we make it to the WS (and really, if we're doing all this with Stras, I think any other presumption is dumb) would add at least 25-40 innings to Stras at a minimum, figuring he makes two-three starts per series and goes 6-7 in each start.  And it would require him starting repeatedly on three-days rest.  The biggest risk you can take with his arm is to radically shift how he's prepping - to go from a six man rotation to throwing 40 innings on three days rest is really risky, in my view.

And even if you go to a six-man rotation, it doesn't help that much.  Stras is averaging just about exactly six innings per start right now.  If he went the whole season and made 33 starts (on a normal 5-man rotation), that would be 198 innings.  Plus 30 or so for the playoffs and you're at 230-ish.  Switch to a six-man, and maybe he makes 30 starts instead of thirty three.  That saves 18 innings, so now he's pitching 212-215-ish.  In the meantime, that's three more starts that Wang is making, three more starts that Detwiler is making, etc.

And all of that presumes that you don't really intend to shut him down at any point.  If you want him for the playoffs, you're basically looking at throwing him MORE THAN DOUBLE the innings that he's EVER thrown in his career less than one year after TJ surgery.  It's basically saying "I don't care if we have him for 2013-2017.  I don't care if he's the next Mark Prior.  I want to win in 2012 so bad that I don't care if his arm snaps off at the shoulder."

Sure, it's a view.  In my view, it's plain irresponsible and a bad strategy.  I'd rather overpay for Greinke, slot him in, shut down Stras and take our shot at 2012 that way.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #217: June 14, 2012, 01:08:43 PM »
bump.

candidate for consolidation with other stras workload / do we shut him down / rotation length threads.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #218: June 14, 2012, 01:14:11 PM »
bump.

Consolidation candidate with the 6 man rotation and when did the 5 man rotation start threads.

Offline PC

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #219: June 14, 2012, 01:16:53 PM »
Best pitcher to start one game


Scouts, execs pick arms to start must-win game now and in three years

Updated: June 14, 2012, 12:39 PM ET
By Kevin Goldstein | Baseball Prospectus


On the surface, the question seems like an easy one: If your team was playing in a championship game tomorrow, and you could have any starting pitcher, who would it be? Your choice is of any ace in the game, but for some it's not just about statistics, it's about comfort and mitigating risk.

The question was posed to 12 industry insiders, ranging from pro scout to general manager, and those 12 generated five different responses. (We also asked them who they think their choice will be in 2015, and those answers are below.)


1. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (seven votes)

Verlander was the runaway winner, but some might be surprised to see him get just more than half the votes. "He just walks to the mound like he owns it," said an American League scouting official. "You're talking about 95-100 mph to both sides of the plate, a hellacious curveball and a plus change."

A National League scout agreed, while focusing on the thought of just one game. "He's capable of no-hitting anyone at any time, in any place," said the talent evaluator. "Every time you see him you wonder if you're going to see something special."

A National League front office member also focused on the one-game aspect but took a different angle. "Verlander has been the most consistent when it comes to maintaining plus-plus stuff deep into games, which for me is really what you ask for when looking for the best player to start one game," the front office member said.


T2. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (two votes)

One of the two young guns to receive votes, Kershaw is just 24 years old and is already on his fourth straight year of putting up ace-level numbers in the big leagues.

"Verlander has more pitches and better stuff, and really he and Kershaw are the only two considerations for me," said a National League official. "I just think Kershaw is the most likely to dominate in a start tomorrow."


T2. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (two votes)

Despite being just 23 years old with less than 170 innings under his belt, Strasburg got a couple of nods.

"His stuff is just so much better than anyone else's stuff," said an American League official.

A scouting executive agreed, adding, "He's evolving from a pure flame guy to a pure pitcher that has an assortment of weapons."


T4. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees (one vote)

Sabathia is generally considered an ace despite that fact he's had an ERA of less than 3.00 just once in his career and struck out more than 200 batters just three times.

"He's just the man," said an assistant general manager. "I know it doesn't match up objectively or on the foundation of any evidence. But I think about what he did in Milwaukee and I think about him ripping off win after win with the Yankees, and for me this is a question about trust, and I trust that guy."


T4. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (one vote)

Last year's runner-up in the Cy Young voting, Weaver has improved his rate stats this year, and one American League executive decided to turn away from the strikeout machines and go for the efficiency.

"I was just thinking about power guys, and I still might rather have power," he explained. "But Verlander is in a bit of a funk right now, so I'll take the guy I know is going to consistently throw strikes."




Thinking about the future

Let's mix things up at bit. Let's change the time frame of this question to three years down the road. Your team is guaranteed a Game 7 in the 2015 World Series. You can pick any starting pitcher for the game, but you have to choose him today. While one pitcher pulled away with the most votes, options nonetheless went from a handful to a plethora.

"There's so much pitching right now," said an assistant GM. "There are so many kids that are mechanically sound, and with strength and conditioning and the way teams are protecting their arms, everything is going towards an era of pitching. It's hard to be a hitter right now." Still, the questions left another executive thinking about young hitters. "Can I take [Bryce] Harper and [Mike] Trout and then not care about what pitcher I get?" he joked.

1. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (six votes)
While Strasburg ran away with the voting, he could have dominated had there not been concern about his injury history. "I'm sticking with Strasburg here, but while my gut says Strasburg, my brain says he might be hurt," said one scouting director. But for others, his injury issues were safely in the rearview mirror.

"2015?" asked a National League scout. "He's four years removed from Tommy John surgery and has four Cy Young awards on his mantle." A scouting official who selected Verlander for the game tomorrow, selected Strasburg while noting similarities between the two. "He's what Verlander was three years ago," he said. "He's going to be that monster that shuts you down on any given day."


2. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (three votes)
Kershaw finished second in both polls, a testament to both his youth and talent. "What is he now? 24?" asked a National League official. "We're talking about a left-hander with dynamite stuff. It could be scary to think about what he looks like in three years."

T3. Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles (one vote)
The biggest surprise of the poll was a vote for a pitcher in A-ball, but both Bundy's stuff and minor league numbers have been the talk of the first half of the season. "We can agree that he's up next year, and maybe as soon as he clears the service time for super-two status," explained an assistant GM. "In 2015, we're talking about a 22-year-old with two-and-a-half years of service time, and he could be pretty damn good."

T3. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals (one vote)
With a walk rate that continues to drop and a strikeout rate that continues to increase, Gonzalez is an under-the-radar pitcher who is slowly but surely working his way to ace status. "I'm taking a 26-year-old who is elite now and has gotten better every year," said an American League scout.


T3. Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays (one vote)
Entering the year as the top prospect in baseball, Moore has begun to dominate more in his first full big league season, and he's still years from his prime. "He has the upside everything is looking for, and he'd just be coming into the prime of his career at that point," said an assistant GM. "I'll admit Trevor Bauer came to mind, but I just can't go there yet."

T3. Justin Verlander (one vote)
The winner of the right now vote, one American League official was quick to note that there's no reason to think Verlander shouldn't be in play three years from now. "He'll be 32, it's not like he'll be old," he said.

Offline OldChelsea

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #220: June 14, 2012, 01:33:04 PM »
I believe that was a factor, at least, when he did it during the 1960 World Series.

'I'll never make the mistake of being 70 again'

- Stengel, following his sacking after that Series

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #221: June 14, 2012, 01:49:52 PM »
Oh, good. Another thread about Stras's innings limit. I think we need at least a dozen.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #222: June 14, 2012, 02:48:11 PM »
Smithian, the team is fallible. They are not perfect as you seem to think.

It's ok not to just always accept all the BS they shovel us.

It's not like the Nats are the only team that handles pitchers coming off TJ this way. If you want to buck state-of-the-art sports medicine that's on you. But they are going to protect their asset as best as they know how.

Offline loshjott

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #223: June 14, 2012, 03:11:45 PM »
Best pitcher to start one game


Two words missing from that long list are Philadelphia and Phillies.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: How Great is Stephen Strasburg? (merged)
« Reply #224: June 14, 2012, 10:48:29 PM »
Simple question, that seems relevant now that he's almost at the halfway point (assuming the same 160 limit Zimmermann had): How much of a cushion do we need when Strasburg gets shut down in order to still make the playoffs?