Author Topic: apologies to LaRoche  (Read 8947 times)

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Offline wpa2629

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #300: August 03, 2012, 11:02:32 AM »
Right it's not an end all be all stat.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #301: August 03, 2012, 11:12:43 AM »
It's pretty safe to assume that guys who get 120+ in a season are doing something right


It's still a stat entirely dependent on teammates. A guy with 120 ribbies is doing something right but he's only getting the chance to because of what his teammates are doing. I remember when Ryan Howard signed his massive deal with the Phillies there were tons of articles lambasting it. One of them I read was talking about that despite four seasons of 130+ RBIs he wasn't all that terribly efficient at producing them. In fact, David DeJesus of the Royals was about as efficient at knocking them in, despite having half the number.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/sports/baseball/02score.html?_r=1

Quote
Similarly, Howard’s mammoth R.B.I. totals stem from the on-base skills of the batters preceding him. Over the last four years, 1,993 men have been on base for him, the highest figure in baseball. During that time, the Kansas City Royals’ David DeJesus has driven in a similar percentage of runners, with 18.3 percent to Howard’s 18.8 percent. But because DeJesus hits leadoff for the lowly Royals, and Howard hits cleanup for the mighty Phillies, DeJesus’s R.B.I. totals pale in comparison.


And of course the classic example of the misleadingness of RBIs is Ruben Sierra's '93 season.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #302: August 03, 2012, 11:19:38 AM »
If you really believe DeJesus and Howard were on the same level that season, more power to you. Almost every stat is dependant on opportunity- notice the drop in Lannan's numbers this season

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #303: August 03, 2012, 11:23:09 AM »
If you really believe DeJesus and Howard were on the same level that season, more power to you. Almost every stat is dependant on opportunity- notice the drop in Lannan's numbers this season

This is actually my entire point. If Howard had been in the same position as DeJesus was he would have only produced RBIs at the level of DeJesus. Yet he was clearly the superior player in terms of value back then. RBIs are not an accurate reflection of talent.

Offline tomterp

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #304: August 03, 2012, 11:47:20 AM »
Not to bring down the mood in this thread... but only once in his nine year career has he ever reached 100 RBI's. In fact, one has to wonder if it's all that smart to bring LaRoche back... as he's basically having a career year this year, nine years in...

Adam wants you to consider his 2006 season before saying 2012 is his career year.

And RBI's?   

 :smh:

Offline tomterp

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #305: August 03, 2012, 11:49:00 AM »

And of course the classic example of the misleadingness of RBIs is Ruben Sierra's '93 season.

Joe Carter is feeling left out of the conversation for worst 100 RBI seasons ever. 

Here's a short excerpt from a 2001 article about Stratomatic Baseball by Rany Jazayerli, talking about what he learned playing the game growing up.

Quote
Performance is independent of context. Strat-O-Matic devises each playing card to perform as closely as possible to the player's real-life performance, but in doing so the game company assumes that the context for each player remains the same as in real life.

 For example, in 1990, Joe Carter had one of the great fluke RBI seasons of all time: despite a .232 average and just 24 home runs in more than 600 at-bats, he amassed 115 RBIs and cemented his reputation as a run producer. Those naive enough to fall for this failed to notice that batting ahead of Carter were Bip Roberts, Tony Gwynn, and Roberto Alomar, all of whom got on-base at a terrific clip, were pretty fast, and rarely cleared the bases with a homer themselves.
 
Strat-O-Matic correctly figured that in creating Joe Carter's card, there was no need to make a drastic adjustment for his RBI total. Used in the same role as he was used in the majors, batting fourth and fifth for the Padres, Carter would be likely to drive in close to 115 runs even with his terrible performance. But taken out of that context--in a draft league--Carter's RBI total would be more in line with the rest of his numbers: unacceptable.
 

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #306: August 03, 2012, 11:55:11 AM »
Adam wants you to consider his 2006 season before saying 2012 is his career year.

And RBI's?   

 :smh:

I wasn't the one using RBI's as a barometer... I was responding to a comment about RBI's.

Offline Smithian

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #307: August 03, 2012, 12:13:35 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised if LaRoche's option is agreed on for next year, but I think he'll be our legit every day 1st baseman for a long time.

I think Michael Morse will be the first guy to succeed LaRoche at 1B, whether or not LaRoche remains with the Nats past this season. I think Morse will get an extension on his current contract and up playing for the Nats through at least 2014/5. He is still peaking as a player and he is in good enough shape he can hold down 1st or LF for a while. Eventually I think you see 1st base turned into a pseudo-DH spot for the Nationals. I think by 2015 you'll see Werth and Zimmerman getting occasional days there and even Bryce if he grows much more. If not Michael Morse, maybe you see a guy like Tyler Moore or another bopper get put there to hold down the spot most days while other players moonlight there for easier days.

I think it'll be a long time before you see the Nationals go out and try to find a first baseman like Prince. A big time slugger would be nice, but keeping 1st open give you a lot of option and huge flexibility.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #308: August 03, 2012, 01:01:14 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised if LaRoche's option is agreed on for next year, but I think he'll be our legit every day 1st baseman for a long time.

I think Michael Morse will be the first guy to succeed LaRoche at 1B, whether or not LaRoche remains with the Nats past this season. I think Morse will get an extension on his current contract and up playing for the Nats through at least 2014/5. He is still peaking as a player and he is in good enough shape he can hold down 1st or LF for a while. Eventually I think you see 1st base turned into a pseudo-DH spot for the Nationals. I think by 2015 you'll see Werth and Zimmerman getting occasional days there and even Bryce if he grows much more. If not Michael Morse, maybe you see a guy like Tyler Moore or another bopper get put there to hold down the spot most days while other players moonlight there for easier days.

I think it'll be a long time before you see the Nationals go out and try to find a first baseman like Prince. A big time slugger would be nice, but keeping 1st open give you a lot of option and huge flexibility.

Call me crazy but I think the Nats will go after a legit leadoff CF this offseason and this will create a logjam in the OF. If so, that means moving Morse to 1B will be next year and LaRoche will have to go. I see Moore as a backup or trade bait for the CF.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #309: August 03, 2012, 01:17:05 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised if LaRoche's option is agreed on for next year, but I think he'll be our legit every day 1st baseman for a long time.

I think Michael Morse will be the first guy to succeed LaRoche at 1B, whether or not LaRoche remains with the Nats past this season. I think Morse will get an extension on his current contract and up playing for the Nats through at least 2014/5. He is still peaking as a player and he is in good enough shape he can hold down 1st or LF for a while. Eventually I think you see 1st base turned into a pseudo-DH spot for the Nationals. I think by 2015 you'll see Werth and Zimmerman getting occasional days there and even Bryce if he grows much more. If not Michael Morse, maybe you see a guy like Tyler Moore or another bopper get put there to hold down the spot most days while other players moonlight there for easier days.

I think it'll be a long time before you see the Nationals go out and try to find a first baseman like Prince. A big time slugger would be nice, but keeping 1st open give you a lot of option and huge flexibility.

I think there is no way LaRoche agrees to the option- he can do better than 1 year $9 million on the open market

Offline Slumpbuster

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #310: August 03, 2012, 01:47:00 PM »
Count me as one that was happy to see Laroche go on the DL last year, we wouldn't miss his weak bat right?
Now we can't afford to be w/out him.
Loved seeing him murder that ball off Cole Hammels last night!

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #311: August 03, 2012, 02:47:17 PM »
Two of LaRoche, Morse, Moore will likely be gone if we decide to pursue a true leadoff CF.   If they decide to keep Harper and/or Werth in CF, then you only need to figure out what to do with one of that triumvirate.  The thing that LaRoche has going for him is he's left handed and a really good defensive 1B.  Really good.  The debate will be had how important that is.  I think Rizzo values it.  I think there will be questions about both Morse and LaR as to how much quality baseball they have in them.  It will be a really intriguing story line to follow in the offseason.  I also think they'd be wise to consider an outfield of Harper/Brown/Werth next year.  I mentioned it over the weekend, but I think Brown's game is similar to Granderson's.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #312: August 03, 2012, 02:50:27 PM »
It's amazing what injury can do to a player, huh? :)
Count me as one that was happy to see Laroche go on the DL last year, we wouldn't miss his weak bat right?
Now we can't afford to be w/out him.
Loved seeing him murder that ball off Cole Hammels last night!

Offline Smithian

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #313: August 03, 2012, 02:52:21 PM »
Call me crazy but I think the Nats will go after a legit leadoff CF this offseason and this will create a logjam in the OF. If so, that means moving Morse to 1B will be next year and LaRoche will have to go. I see Moore as a backup or trade bait for the CF.
That would be ideal.

Looking at our roster right now I am happy we didn't match Prince. He's a beast but we're left with excellent roster and payroll flexibility.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #314: August 03, 2012, 03:21:11 PM »
Except Moore. I don't want to lose Moore. I'd rather see Morse go. I think Morse's best year was last year.
That would be ideal.

Looking at our roster right now I am happy we didn't match Prince. He's a beast but we're left with excellent roster and payroll flexibility.


Offline Hogie

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #315: August 03, 2012, 03:30:31 PM »
Everyone is always chasing that masher at first. That's why the Red Sox are paying $21m for worse production than LaRoche gives us (this year) and the Yankees are paying $22.5m for the exact same production. If we can get LaRoche's production at a relatively cheap price, we're way ahead of the game.

Offline Once an Expos Fan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #316: August 03, 2012, 03:33:14 PM »
I'm sorry, Adam.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #317: August 04, 2012, 04:11:30 PM »
Pick up the option today, motivation for the playoffs

Offline Hogie

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #318: August 04, 2012, 04:21:37 PM »
LaRoche won't agree to that option with the year he's having. Offer him 3/30 right now and see where you stand.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #319: August 04, 2012, 05:30:47 PM »
Draft picks and a white whale.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #320: August 04, 2012, 06:35:47 PM »
LaRoche won't agree to that option with the year he's having. Offer him 3/30 right now and see where you stand.

I thought it was a club option - my mistake

Offline monkeyhit

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #321: August 04, 2012, 06:37:45 PM »
LaRoche won't agree to that option with the year he's having. Offer him 3/30 right now and see where you stand.

Doubt he'd take it, but it's a start.

Offline Hogie

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #322: August 05, 2012, 03:57:12 AM »
I can't believe some of you want to just let him walk for a crappy draft pick in a weak draft.

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #323: August 05, 2012, 08:08:44 AM »
I can't believe some of you want to just let him walk for a crappy draft pick in a weak draft.

Morse can move to 1B and we can get on OF to replace Morse.

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #324: August 05, 2012, 08:11:32 AM »
If LaRoche ends up with forty bombs it'll be crazier than when we didn't re-sign Dunn. It'll be an interesting debate. I think they need to keep the position available for Moore.