Author Topic: apologies to LaRoche  (Read 9742 times)

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Offline mimontero88

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #425: September 07, 2012, 03:10:20 PM »
Yes you did:

I'm not going to argue stats with you because you know a lot more about SABR stats than I'll ever forget.  But come on.  In terms of steroid usage in the game, let's not pretend 2006 was anything like the 1990's.  2012 is a lot closer to 2006 than the "middle of the steroids era."

I know I said "middle of the steroids era," which, was definitely poorly worded.  Tail end would have been better.  I meant I never said that PED usage in 1998 and 2006 were even comparable.  The comparison I did make was between 2006 and 2012.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #426: September 07, 2012, 04:04:10 PM »
Quote
ah so is this how Espinosa always has such a high fWAR?  The crappiness of other NL 2B?

No.  Position influences WAR directly through the position component, which is the same for all 2d basemen.   The positional component takes account of the difficulty of fielding the position and what percentage of the full season you play at the position.  Playing Catcher for a full season I think is plus 12.5 runs.  SS is plus 7.5; 3B, 2d, and CF is plus 2.5 runs, RF and LF is -7.5, 1st is -12.5, and DH is -17.5, IIRC.  There is also another adjustment for games played to reflect that WAR is above replacement rather than above average.

Where Danny cleans up this year is that he plays full time, some at short, and he is a terrific fielder according UZR.  Add in that now he produces about slightluy above average runs, and he gets a little over 2.2 wins from the position and playing full time, 1.3 from defense, and .5 from offense. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #427: September 07, 2012, 04:09:41 PM »
Not sure if this was posted, but it is a Fangraphs article on Adam LaRoche's Suddenly Elite Power:

Quote
And so for the first time since 2006, LaRoche finds himself an impact player. But he isn’t doing anything new. He’s still a predominantly pull hitter with great natural power, a predilection to the fly ball, but mediocre contact skills. This skilllset wasn’t particularly difficult to find in 2007, when the league slugged .423 and its first basemen slugged .463. But five years later, many of those players that defined the league with their power have fallen away, either retiring or declining. LaRoche’s .511 slugging percentage ranks him fourth among qualified first basemen, behind Edwin Encarnacion, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. In 2007, the same mark would have ranked ninth, just behind the ever-capable Mike Jacobs.


Offline Hogie

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #428: September 07, 2012, 05:26:08 PM »
"The Washington Nationals, to the surprise of no one, are going to try to keep first baseman Adam LaRoche with a new deal after the season."

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/20094292/nationals-will-try-to-retain-laroche-their-positional-mvp

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #429: September 08, 2012, 12:56:13 PM »
I'd keep LaRoche definitely. I wonder how much he'll be and how many teams go after him.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #430: September 08, 2012, 05:27:43 PM »
Since only Mike Jacobs has ever been linked to PEDs I don't see the relevance.


So the powero outage is a coincidence.

Offline Hogie

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #431: September 11, 2012, 04:41:59 PM »
Boswell's thoughts (he must answer his chat questions on a 10-year-old blackberry or something)

My guess is that LaRoche, 33 in November, could a 3-yr deal for $35M-to-$40M. Maybe this is my view of his value. The market may have its own. He's never been given xcredit for what is obviously Gold Glove lev el defense and, at least as a Nat, major influence as a club house leader and example.

If I were the Nats, and I have no idea what their plans are, I'd offer LaRoche 2yrs/$25M. If you only pick up his $10M 1-yr option, I think he probably has to leave and take the bigger bucks. He might even get 4 yrs. If you offer two yrs, maybe he thinks, "I've already made $36M in my career. That guarantees I'll m ake more than $60M with this deal. I'm a bow-and-arrow-hunter guy, not a mansion guy. That's enough. I'll take it so I can play on a could of Series con tenders in DC in '13-'14."

http://live.washingtonpost.com/ask-boswell-120910.html#1st-Base-in-201

Offline CatsEye

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #432: September 11, 2012, 05:01:28 PM »
 I don't think it is a smart move to offer LaRoche a new contract. He has been out alot due to injuries, and I 'd rather see someone else at 1rst Base-such as Tyler Moore.  Just my view.....  :popcorn:

Offline mimontero88

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #433: September 11, 2012, 05:07:54 PM »
I don't think it is a smart move to offer LaRoche a new contract. He has been out alot due to injuries, and I 'd rather see someone else at 1rst Base-such as Tyler Moore.  Just my view.....  :popcorn:

When has he been out a lot due to injuries?  He had one injury last year that we knew he had coming in to Spring Training.  Outside of that, he's had a pretty healthy career.

Offline mimontero88

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #434: September 11, 2012, 05:12:29 PM »
Although I know it's a bit arbitrary at $5 million a win LaRoche may give us the entire value of his contract from both last year and this year in this season alone.  That's pretty good.

Offline welch

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #435: September 11, 2012, 05:40:57 PM »
LaRoche fields like a regular infielder...not a clumsy converted outfielder. That makes a difference. Add the hitting, and, yes, just this season has been worth the total of his two year contract.

Sign him.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #436: September 11, 2012, 05:47:20 PM »
I don't think it is a smart move to offer LaRoche a new contract. He has been out alot due to injuries, and I 'd rather see someone else at 1rst Base-such as Tyler Moore.  Just my view.....  :popcorn:

The only down thing about the guy is that he usually has a very weak first half. Luckily for us, he didn't this year.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #437: September 11, 2012, 05:49:03 PM »
fWAR is a rating system that is heavily influenced by league and position. Look at who played first in the NL in 2006 and compare them with the 2012 players.

I'm confused.  Does how the other 1B perform in a year affect the WAR of LaRoche?  I didn't think so and JCA just said it doesn't, but this quote seems to imply it does. 

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #438: September 11, 2012, 06:17:59 PM »
I'm confused.  Does how the other 1B perform in a year affect the WAR of LaRoche?  I didn't think so and JCA just said it doesn't, but this quote seems to imply it does.

How a batter performs relative to the league average factors into WAR, but I'm not aware that the positional adjustment changes from year to year.

One way to look at it is home run totals.  This is by year for NL First Baseman since '06, batter with the highest home run total:

2006 - Ryan Howard - 58
2007 - Prince Fielder - 50
2008 - Ryan Howard - 48
2009 - Albert Pujols - 47
2010 - Albert Pujols - 42
2011 - Prince Fielder - 38
2012 - Adam LaRoche - 29

LaRoche's totals over the same period?

2006 - 32
2007 - 21
2008 - 25
2009 - 24
2010 - 25
2011 - Injured
2012 - 29

One is trending downward, while the other is consistent.  Relative to the league, LaRoche is now top notch, but he hasn't really changed.  Pretty cool.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #439: September 11, 2012, 06:22:48 PM »
How a batter performs relative to the league average factors into WAR

League average at the position, or league average period?

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #440: September 11, 2012, 06:37:20 PM »
League average at the position, or league average period?

League-average first, and then there's an overall adjustment based on position is my understanding.  Meaning you don't get double credit for hitting well because of your position.

Here's the definition from FanGraphs:

"Offensive players – Take wRAA, UBR, and UZR (which express offensive, base running, and defensive value in runs above average) and add them together. Add in a positional adjustment, since some positions are tougher to play than others, and then convert the numbers so that they’re not based on league average, but on replacement level (which is the value a team would lose if they had to replace that player with a “replacement” player – a minor leaguer or someone from the waiver wire). Convert the run value to wins (10 runs = 1 win) and voila, finished!"


Offline aspenbubba

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #441: September 11, 2012, 06:43:38 PM »
When has he been out a lot due to injuries?  He had one injury last year that we knew he had coming in to Spring Training.  Outside of that, he's had a pretty healthy career.

I keep asking for proof that LaRoche was injured PRIOR to ST

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #442: September 11, 2012, 07:51:49 PM »
LaRoche fields like a regular infielder...not a clumsy converted outfielder. That makes a difference. Add the hitting, and, yes, just this season has been worth the total of his two year contract.

Sign him.



good post


Offline lastobjective

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Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #445: September 12, 2012, 12:22:47 AM »
What if they gave him essentially the same offer 2 years with a mutual third.  I don't know what the appropriate dollar figure would be, but 2 years with a mutual third...

Offline Nathan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #446: September 12, 2012, 04:50:09 AM »
Terp signal

Quote
The Nationals will wait until after the year to talk to LaRoche or any other possible extension candidate – like, for instance, Jordan Zimmermann – so as to distract them from the pennant race.

Offline aussienatsfan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #447: September 12, 2012, 06:32:09 AM »
I would live to see T-Mo play every day, but I've been so impressed with La Roche

Offline monkeyhit

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #448: September 12, 2012, 07:39:24 AM »
I would live to see T-Mo play every day, but I've been so impressed with La Roche

TMo in left, ALa at first. we need the left power stroke in this lineup.

Offline tomterp

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #449: September 12, 2012, 07:44:23 AM »
Terp signal

It's gotten really common for people to say exactly the opposite of what they intend.

Really, I could care less.

 8)