Author Topic: apologies to LaRoche  (Read 13485 times)

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Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #325: August 05, 2012, 09:12:42 AM »
If LaRoche ends up with forty bombs it'll be crazier than when we didn't re-sign Dunn. It'll be an interesting debate. I think they need to keep the position available for Moore.

Whatever happened to Chris Marrero?

Offline mimontero88

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #326: August 05, 2012, 09:16:09 AM »
Whatever happened to Chris Marrero?

Playing in AAA I think.  He spent most of the year on the DL.

EDIT:  Just looked it up.  He's hitting .257/.368/.311 in 87 PA at AAA in 2012. 

Total minor leagues this year:  .283/.372/.407 in 113 ABs

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #327: August 05, 2012, 09:25:18 AM »
He's 32. Look at the graphs on how hitters age. LaRoche is peaking, it's not likely he'll every have another year like this one. For that matter, Morse probably won't either.

Without the 'roids, it's a young man's game.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-do-star-hitters-age/

I can't believe some of you want to just let him walk for a crappy draft pick in a weak draft.


Offline blue911

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #328: August 05, 2012, 09:47:30 AM »
The AAV for the top 125 is in excess of $13M. The Nats would have to offer LaRoche that plus his $1M buy out in order to collect draft compensation. $10M might not be enough to keep him but $14M is a different story.

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #329: August 05, 2012, 09:56:37 AM »
If LaRoche doesn't parlay this season into a 4 year deal somewhere, he's nuts.

Tied for 5th in WAR for all first basemen in MLB with.. Prince Fielder!

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #330: August 05, 2012, 09:59:12 AM »
I can't believe some of you want to just let him walk for a crappy draft pick in a weak draft.

better to pay him based on a career year?

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #331: August 05, 2012, 11:20:15 AM »
Yeah, I'm not big on signing him or Morse to a big extension. I'm not opposed to them picking up his option for next year though if they think it will allow them to put the best team on the field.

At the same time, it's hard to say let's just go with Moore simply because he's been so awesome so far this season. I like him, but he's not nearly as proven as LaRoche or even Morse.

Offline mimontero88

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #332: August 05, 2012, 11:35:02 AM »
Don't pay LaRoche based on a career year when you can go out and get Michael Bourn and move Michael Morse to 1B.  Would you rather have Bourn or LaRoche because with Morse, Werth, and Harper firmly entrenched in the outfield you can't have both.


Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #333: August 05, 2012, 01:17:09 PM »
Yeah, I'm not big on signing him or Morse to a big extension. I'm not opposed to them picking up his option for next year though if they think it will allow them to put the best team on the field.

At the same time, it's hard to say let's just go with Moore simply because he's been so awesome so far this season. I like him, but he's not nearly as proven as LaRoche or even Morse.

Maybe they keep Moore as the 1B of the future, pick up LaRoche's option and keep him here for 2013 (or sign him to a one year deal), and then trade Morse for a CF?  Maybe for one of the D'backs CFs?  Part of a package for Fowler?  Carlos Gomez from the Brewers has some pop but is not a leadoff hitter.  Denard Span, possibly.

I also like the idea of giving Brown some time in September to see if he can hold down the CF spot.  He seems to have mastered AAA and is probably at least a bench player in the big leagues and might be more than that.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #334: August 05, 2012, 01:22:16 PM »
They can't pick up laroche's option- it's a mutual option for $10 million with a $1 million buyout that he's be insane to agree to coming off this season

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #335: August 05, 2012, 01:32:21 PM »
You may be right about him not wanting to pick up his end of the option - here is the list of free agents - LaRoche could be one of the top options available.

(http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html)

First basemen
Lance Berkman (36)
Russell Branyan (37)
Jason Giambi (42)
Brad Hawpe (34)
Eric Hinske (35)
Aubrey Huff (36) - $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Casey Kotchman (30)
Adam LaRoche (33) - $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Carlos Lee (37)
James Loney (29)
Xavier Nady (34)
Mike Napoli (31)
Lyle Overbay (36)
Carlos Pena (35)
Ty Wigginton (35) - $4MM club option with a $500K buyout

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #336: August 05, 2012, 01:35:35 PM »
Also free agents that could be played at 1B are Nick Swisher and maybe even Josh Hamilton to save some wear and tear on his body.

Offline Hogie

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #337: August 05, 2012, 03:06:43 PM »
Don't pay LaRoche based on a career year when you can go out and get Michael Bourn and move Michael Morse to 1B.  Would you rather have Bourn or LaRoche because with Morse, Werth, and Harper firmly entrenched in the outfield you can't have both.

This "career year" talk is kind of silly. He's currently batting 7 points higher than his career BA and 10 points higher than his career OBP. Yeah he might hit 36 home runs but his career high is 32 anyway. It's not like he's out there putting up an MVP season out of nowhere.

As for Bourn, you think there aren't risks there? You certainly don't want a Carl Crawford Jr. situation on your hands.

Again, it all depends on the market. if the Dodgers want to make it rain on LaRoche then we shouldn't overpay just to keep him. But if the choice is spending $75 million on Bourn vs half of that on LaRoche, yeah I'll take LaRoche and figure out CF later.

Online Slateman

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #338: August 05, 2012, 03:18:28 PM »
If he won't take the option, let him walk.

Look, I love what he's done, but he's 32. He's having a borderline career year. You can't reasonably expect him to repeat this over the next three years.

Offline Hogie

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #339: August 05, 2012, 03:23:09 PM »
Sure you can.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #340: August 05, 2012, 03:25:01 PM »
And you'll be disappointed. 32 is past prime. The decline from this point on, at least when you average together a lot of players, is precipitous.
Sure you can.


Offline Hogie

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #341: August 05, 2012, 03:36:03 PM »
And you'll be disappointed. 32 is past prime. The decline from this point on, at least when you average together a lot of players, is precipitous.


Meh, it can be. But there are also a ton of examples of guys in that 33-35 range who had identical or better than their career average performance. And that's after you throw out the obviously tainted guys like McGwire. I'd also say that the over 32 numbers are also skewed by fatties playing first base - a problem obviously not there with LaRoche.

But what you said is exactly what we should tell LaRoche when we shove a hometown discount contract extension in his face.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #342: August 05, 2012, 04:35:50 PM »
LaRoche is the hitting machine

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #343: August 05, 2012, 05:12:54 PM »
Since July 22nd


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #344: August 05, 2012, 06:36:55 PM »
I can't believe some of you want to just let him walk for a crappy draft pick in a weak draft.

He's going to get > $20MM and > 2 years.  I'm not sure I want to be paying him much more than that for more years at his age. 

how I expect this to go down is that we exercise our half the option, he declines the player part, we offer him at least 1 year and $13MM to qualify for a comp pick, and then it gets down to his priorities and ours.  I like the lefty power bat who can punish teams that throw righties against us, so at this point I may even think he's more useful than Morse.  I think long term that we should not block Goodwin and Rendon, which makes me reluctant to go 3 years for LaRoche.

Offline RyanZimsKazoo

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #345: August 05, 2012, 06:41:22 PM »
LaRoche has been very streaky this year...

How about if we make it in the playoffs and see how he does in October that we decide to give him some money or not. If he stinks in October then I don't want him. Hell if the truly remarkable happens and we win a World Series I don't want him back because we could use that money towards getting some better depth everywhere.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #346: August 07, 2012, 03:05:00 PM »
Thanks. By the way, I always liked John Bonnes, used to read his stuff regularly when he ran the Strib blog, and he has a great post about how lacking the 1st base FA market is this year. He rates Morneau as the top option.  This is relevant to whether Adam LaRoche would sign and for how much.  To me, it looks like 2 years, $28MM with a team option is his floor.
http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?891-Morneau-vs-The-Void

Ps - I'll copy this into a laroche thread later and split off any responses here on the LaRoche market point.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #347: August 07, 2012, 04:17:59 PM »
He's going to get > $20MM and > 2 years.  I'm not sure I want to be paying him much more than that for more years at his age. 

I agree, except ...

I like the lefty power bat who can punish teams that throw righties against us, so at this point I may even think he's more useful than Morse.  I think long term that we should not block Goodwin and Rendon, which makes me reluctant to go 3 years for LaRoche.

I hadn't thought of it like this before - would you sign LaRoche to a 3/34 deal and then look to trade Morse? 
I'm with you on the not wanting to have both LaRoche and Morse taking up spots that will block others, but if you had to bet - who's more likely to see their skills rapidly erode over the 2013-2015 seasons?  It's debatable - but it's not crazy to think that LaRoche's age 33-35 seasons > Morse's age 31-33 seasons.

LaRoche has a years-and-years long track record of being a 20-25HR, 815 OPS kind of guy with plus defense.  Morse has his breakout since coming to the Nats, but his overall track record isn't as good and he's also a candidate for that early-30s rapid descent kind of trajectory.  Toss in the fact that he's a righty on a team that lacks lefties, and is at best not very good with the glove as an OF, and I begin to wonder about why we're in such a hurry to get rid of LaRoche to move Morse and if we wouldn't be better off with LaRoche longer-term and Morse traded.

I hadn't looked at the list - LaRoche looks to be clearly top-3 in terms of FA class and maybe the best possible option.  I think 2/28 plus a team option may even be low for a floor.  Gotta think the Dodgers will be looking and won't want to give Loney another 500 ABs.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #348: August 07, 2012, 04:28:37 PM »
Laroche is good enough, you could count on him turning down the tender, and Morse is only on the books for one more year, so the question (if you only want one or the other) is:

1 year of Morse at $7 million + draft pick (possibly another one when morse walks too) vs LaRoche for three years at $~11 million + what you can get back for Morse?

I personally would favor the morse side of that equation, but I have faith in Moore to be able to step in in two years

Offline mimontero88

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Re: apologies to LaRoche
« Reply #349: August 07, 2012, 04:33:57 PM »
Morse has his breakout since coming to the Nats, but his overall track record isn't as good...

Not totally a fair assessment.  The issue with Morse was never that he couldn't hit.  He's a career .298/.351/.491 hitter.  It's always been that teams couldn't find a position for him.