Author Topic: 2012 media power rankings  (Read 11589 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #100: March 09, 2012, 01:51:35 PM »
Fangraphs has been running a position by position series on the relative strengths of each team.  this accounts for projected time splits, using ZiPS projections with adjustments (especially for pitching).

Here is how the Nats fare, with PA or IP as a proxy for the tiime split and WAR for summary evaluation. Links are provided for each position.  My comments are below the quotes, and I've bolded some interesting stuff from the authors.

Catcher - 12th - Ramos 500 PA (3.0 WAR) / Flores 200 (0.5)
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Ramos is a legitimate breakout candidate and it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he hits the 4-WAR mark this season. He has all the requisite tools to succeed for a very long time. He tallied 3.5 WAR as a 23-year old last year, hitting .267/.334/.445 and throwing out almost one-third of opposing base-stealers.

Flores is a big question mark, as he has shown flashes in the past mostly erased by the annual news of a new injury. He has a career .141 ISO and certainly has pop, but the former catcher of the future will now look for success as a backup.

1st Base - 24 - LaRoche 450 (0.7), Morse 200 (0.8), others 70 (-0.2)
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The Nationals probably wish they could trade LaRoche so they can move Morse to first and have Jayson Werth and (they hope) Bryce Harper on the corners of the outfield. For now, they need to play LaRoche, but if he gets hurt again or they pass the deadline with LaRoche hitting poorly, I can see Morse getting more of the at-bats. Either way, I do not see LaRoche sucking up the playing time. The other guys are generic utility payers.

2d base - 11 - Espinosa 650 PAs (3.0 WAR), others 50 (0)
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A lot of Danny Espinosa’s value is tied up in his exceptional defense at second base. If he can improve on his rookie line, he might be able to outperform his projected WAR. DeRosa should receive playing time at a bunch of positions, and Lombardozzi may not be up unless there’s an injury. Espinosa played in 158 games last season, so that seems unlikely.

SS - 29 - K.I.D. 500 PAs (1.5 WAR), Blanco 100 PAs (0), Espinosa 100 PAs (0.5)
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If the Nationals braintrust deems that Steve Lambardozzi is done cooking, then there’s a very real chance that Ian Desmond loses his starting job as Danny Espinosa moves over from second base. I put Espinosa here as a prospect, though he’s already a veteran of two seasons, so that we can at the very least see his projected stats. I think I would be mildly shocked if Espinosa isn’t playing shortstop by the season’s end, which should improve the stock here considerably.

3d Base - 4 - FotFF! (Face of the Franchise Forever!) 550 PAs (5 WAR), Lombo 100 PAs (0), Other (a/k/a DeRosa) 50 (0)
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He’s still only 27. Yes, he had an injury-riddled year filled with whispers that his oblique issues would plague him as long as he stayed at the position — but Zimmerman only 27. And when he’s healthy, he has patience, power and glove to drool about. DeRosa is no backup plan, but Lombardozzi could provide in a pinch. The two teams ahead of the Nationals in the queue, however, are better set in case of injury.
jca note - the 2 teams in 3d and 2d are Texas, which has Young as a backup, and Detroit, which has Inge.  Alone  on top is Longoria.

CF - 27 - Bernie 150 PAs (0), Werth 250 (1.5) Ankiel 150 (0.5)
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Center field is in flux for the Nationals. Part of the problem is the incumbent, Roger Bernadina, who is average at defense and below average at the plate. Another issue is whether and when Bryce Harper makes the 25-man roster. When that happens — and manager Davey Johnson seems to want that sooner rather than later — Jayson Werth will move to center field and Harper will play right. ZIPS expects a better season from Werth than 2011, but still not at the level he produced with the Phillies. The Nationals also signed Rick Ankiel to a minor-league deal, but he seems certain to make the team out of spring training. Ankiel adds good value on defense but not much at the plate. None of these players are perfect fit for the Nationals in center, and will likely share the time there until a more permanent solution is found.
jca note - who is shocked that our two relatively weakest positions are CF and SS, followed by 1B?

RF - 15 - Werth 300 (1.5 WAR), Ankiel 100 (0.5), Harper 200 (1)
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The Nationals are by a wide margin the toughest team to place here, as the combination of Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper makes for a wide variety of possibilities in right field in Washington. Does Werth continue to be massive disappointment? Does he rebound? Does Werth move to center field to accommodate Harper’s ascension? Does Werth give way to Harper if he continues to struggle? Does Harper even make the majors in 2012? Does he bust out in spring training? It’s hard to say.

Personally, I have little confidence in Werth returning to much more than he was last year. Nationals Park does not do the same favors Citizen’s Bank Park did, and Werth no longer appears to be an elite defender either. His contract is far too large to simply shove him aside for Harper, but Harper may complicate things with a great spring or a great start in the minors, forcing Werth over to center. Either way, it seems doubtful Harper or Werth will be good enough this year to warrant placing them in front of teams with a more concrete situation at the position.
jca - yet, while clearly no fan of Werth, FG has him at 2 WAR, or average, between CF and RF.  No star, not worth the contract, but the whole "Werthless" shtick is not called for in terms of his play, despite MDS's rants. ;)

LF - 10 - Morse 600 PAs (3 WAR), others 100 (0)
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Morse broke onto the scene for the Nationals in 2011, hitting .303/.360/.550 with 31 home runs in 575 plate appearances. ZiPS sees the 30-year-old regressing a bit in all categories, but still being well above-average at the plate. Morse suffers from the same limitations that have dogged both Morrison and Quentin, though Morse is projected to hit for more power. I also allotted him more plate appearances, which accounts for the extra win given to him in the rankings.

Many national writers have talked up Rick Ankiel over the past two weeks. They say he appears more comfortable, more calm. While it’s certainly good to hear Ankiel feels better in his surroundings, he will probably spend more time in center field than he will in left field — both because Morse has locked down the position and Roger Bernadina should not produce enough at the plate to garner 500 plate appearances at this level. DeRosa spent the 2011 season in the Giants organization. He remains versatile with the glove and can get the bat on the baseball, but the power is gone. ZiPS reflects that, too.

Starting Pitching - 16 - EJack 200 IP (3 WAR); Gio 195 IP (3); JZ 150 IP (2.5); Stras 120 IP (3); Lannan 120 IP (0.5); Det 75 IP (0.5); Wang 75 IP (0.5); Gorzo 50 IP (0.5)
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I was relatively conservative with the innings projections for Strasburg and Zimmerman, so if you think both can stay healthy and pitch something close to a full season, you could bump the Nationals up quite a bit here. Even just giving both of those guys an addition 30 innings would push Washington’s rotation into the top 10, so don’t get too upset over the placement here. There’s obviously a lot of potential here – how well their rotation performs basically depends on how many innings they can get from their young ace, and how quickly they can dump Lannan on someone else.
jca - and if SS and JZ hit their innings targets of 40 more innings a piece, wow.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #101: March 30, 2012, 02:42:42 PM »
Fangraphs will rank the Washington Nationals the #11 strongest organization in baseball based on the factors of 2012 outlook, future outlook, finances, and management quality. The piece will go online next week.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #102: March 30, 2012, 02:50:01 PM »
Fangraphs will rank the Washington Nationals the #11 strongest organization in baseball based on the factors of 2012 outlook, future outlook, finances, and management quality. The piece will go online next week.

:clap:

Offline LostYudite

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #103: March 30, 2012, 03:26:07 PM »
Fangraphs will rank the Washington Nationals the #11 strongest organization in baseball based on the factors of 2012 outlook, future outlook, finances, and management quality. The piece will go online next week.

Wow.  Slightly better than middle-of-the-road.  Hoo rah.   We're number 11!  We're number 11!  You know, if you think about it, 11 is like Double 1.  We're double 1!  We're double 1! :roll:

Let's play some actual games and see how we do, eh?  ;)

Not that I don't think FG shouldn't do meaningless power rankings like every other media outlet, and not that fans shouldn't read them, but really, all the statistical rosterbation about what WAR people project to is pretty limited utility.

We are, probably, where we think we are - on the fringes of playoff contention, with enough holes to make backsliding into mediocrity possible and enough strengths to think we may sneak into the playoffs if everything breaks just so.  Any more specificity than that is more or less bunk.

Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #104: March 30, 2012, 03:32:31 PM »
Let's play some actual games and see how we do, eh?  ;)

You mean like outside? :spaz: I prefer arguing on message boards and statistics. ;)


Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #105: March 30, 2012, 04:35:23 PM »
Not that I don't think FG shouldn't do meaningless power rankings like every other media outlet, and not that fans shouldn't read them, but really, all the statistical rosterbation about what WAR people project to is pretty limited utility.

This is not the same as other power rankings, as I tried to explain. The Fangraphs rating is a combination of 2012 team outlook, depth of farm system and quality of team in 2013 and beyond, track record of the front office, and financial situation. So it's not about WAR; it's about trying to figure out how good of a future the club has.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #106: April 03, 2012, 03:45:50 PM »
Washington Nationals Fangraphs Organizational Ranking: #11

Linty already found the comments section.

Offline PC

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #107: April 03, 2012, 11:59:43 PM »
ESPN first ranking of the season.

Quote
16) Nationals - Stephen Strasburg had a rough spring, as he was 1-4 with a 4.18 ERA in six starts. The Nats had better hope the bad numbers don't continue once the games begin to count. -- ESPN.com

Actually, he didn't have a rough spring.  Now Roy Halladay, HE had a rough spring!

...and why would "the bad numbers continue once the games begin to count" as opposed to any other pitcher's spring numbers?

Offline PC

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #108: April 04, 2012, 12:07:05 AM »
cbssports.com:

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16) Nationals - Unheralded offseason move: Picking a fight with Phillies fans. It might come off as a bit desperate upon initial glance -- because, frankly, it kind of is -- but eventually the Nationals are going to have a rivalry with the Phillies. Why not get a jumpstart on it with a surely growing fan base?

Offline wpa2629

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #109: April 04, 2012, 12:12:36 AM »
ESPN first ranking of the season.

Actually, he didn't have a rough spring.  Now Roy Halladay, HE had a rough spring!

...and why would "the bad numbers continue once the games begin to count" as opposed to any other pitcher's spring numbers?

The fact that they used the spring training win/loss record for a pitcher (OMG LOL) as an indicator of ANYTHING is all you need to know about this evaluation. It's just lazy and stupid.

Ignore it

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #110: April 04, 2012, 07:49:36 AM »
cbssports.com:


Unheralded? Gio at least made some news and that's more than most teams

Offline PC

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #111: April 04, 2012, 12:51:04 PM »
foxsports.com:

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18) Nationals - The return of Stephen Strasburg and the additions of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson give the Nationals an incredibly solid rotation. But really, when do we get to see Bryce Harper?

Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #112: April 04, 2012, 12:52:22 PM »
foxsports.com:


These things are so shallow. Strasburg! Harper! They only have two players, right?

Offline NatsWin

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #113: April 05, 2012, 11:42:46 AM »
Right now I would say we're somewhere in the mid-teens because of injuries.  But once we're back at full strength, this is a Top 10 team.  I firmly believe that.

Offline PC

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #114: April 12, 2012, 05:24:13 PM »
cbssports.com (4/11/2012)

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16 - (Last Week 16) - They aren't higher because they were handed their first two wins of the season. While we can't give the Cubs credit for this and say "they should have two more wins" -- because bullpen pitching is part of the game -- we can certainly denigrate the Nationals for it. They didn't win those two games as much as the Cubs gave them away. What if Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol could get outs? There's obvious potential here, though, so it bodes well these Nats took advantage of the gimmes.

If this isn't the most piss poor rationale I've ever seen, I don't know what is...and today's Nats game proved it.  The Nats took the lead (or tied) in the 8th inning and the Cubs were at home so, minimally, two innings to come back and "force" the Nationals pitchers to blow the save.  The Nationals relievers had to get outs too!   >:(  As today's game showed, you can lose a lead late and come back and win, it's even easier when you're at home because you always have the last at bat.

...and this isn't even Larry Dobrow anymore.  It's Matt Snyder now.

Offline PC

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #115: April 12, 2012, 05:27:53 PM »
foxsports.com (4/10/2012)

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15) - (Last Week 18) - Choosing to shift lefty Ross Detwiler to the starting rotation not only prompted a trade request from mainstay John Lannan, but also weakens a bullpen that is already without closer Drew Storen.

The bullpen is ok, it would seem, so is Detwiler as starter.

Offline PC

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #116: April 12, 2012, 05:29:45 PM »
espn.com (4/9/2012)

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9) - (Last Week 16) - Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann pitched outstanding for the Nationals in their first starts of the season.


Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #117: April 13, 2012, 11:45:04 AM »
Those latest reviews from foxsports and cbssports are just awful.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #118: April 13, 2012, 11:46:20 AM »
the cbs one is the best

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What if Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol could get outs?

apparently credit is only given if you make their starter leave the game while you have the lead

Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #119: April 16, 2012, 11:59:00 PM »
SI.com outsourced their power rankings to Fangraphs' Dave Cameron and Bradley Woodrum, who are rating teams by WAR and bringing in tons of statistics to justify the ratings. Washington is #3. I expect the average SI.com reader to be outraged and mightily baffled by basically the whole article.

Offline Squab

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #120: April 17, 2012, 12:02:37 AM »
The Nats are all over www.si.com
Front page, main story in the MLB page, number 3 in the power rankings. Respect.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #121: April 17, 2012, 12:36:40 AM »
I like #26.

Offline PC

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #122: April 17, 2012, 12:46:36 AM »
espn.com  (4/16/2012)

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6) - (Last Week - 9) - The Nationals' starters have a crazy 1.75 ERA so far this year, leading the National League by two-thirds of a run. -- Harper Gordek: Nationals Baseball

Offline Squab

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #123: April 17, 2012, 01:57:23 AM »
Grantland
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7. Washington Nationals, 7-3 (39 RS, 27 RA) (Last week: 10)

First place in the NL East and the best run prevention in the senior circuit … but it all feels a little fleeting. Drew Storen's visit to Dr. James Andrews didn't result in Tommy John surgery, but a procedure to remove bone fragments from his right elbow will likely keep the Nats closer out until the All-Star break. You can recover from the loss of a short reliever, especially when you've got a fireballer like Henry Rodriguez hitting triple digits in Storen's stead.

The bigger problem is Mike Morse getting shut down for at least six weeks (and very possibly longer) with a lat injury. The Nats rank just 10th in the NL in runs scored and figured to struggle scoring runs even with Morse coming off a 31-homer breakout in 2011. The bold move would be to call up Bryce Harper, given that the Nats are now giving playing time to the dreadful combination of Rick Ankiel and Mark DeRosa in the outfield. However, Harper's hitting just .222 with a .263 OBP to start the year in Triple-A Syracuse, the Nationals want him to gain as much experience as possible playing center field, and the guy's six months away from turning 20. Washington's hopes this year were going to rest on pitching regardless. But a lineup this thin might eventually demand more aggressive action, especially if Morse's injury stretches from weeks to months and Harper's left to develop on the farm.

Offline imref

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Re: 2012 media power rankings
« Reply #124: April 17, 2012, 09:57:22 AM »
we're now at #3 in Fangraphs/SI:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/04/16/power.rankings/index.html
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Washington Nationals
WAR Winning Percentage: .647; Current Winning Percentage: .700; WAR Wins: 6; Current Wins: 7

Everyone expected the Nationals to be good in 2012, but probably not No.-3-in-the-Power-Rankings-good. Washington leads the majors with a team ERA of 1.99 and a FIP of 2.29, but it is hard to imagine this impressive display lasting much longer. Even when the rotation begins performing at their true talent levels, though, a starting group featuring Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson is no pushover, and the NL East will have to take notice.