Poll

Oi.

Hell yeah! It'll suck on a SF Giants level!
13 (26%)
No way! Bryce Haaaaaarrrpuuuuuurrrrr...
15 (30%)
freak Ian Desmond.
22 (44%)

Total Members Voted: 50

Author Topic: Will the offense suck or not?  (Read 1886 times)

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Offline PatsNats28

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Re: Will the offense suck or not?
« Reply #50: January 30, 2012, 04:27:22 PM »
I went ahead and ran the offense numbers for 2011, using the same assumptions as for my 2012 projections (4-year average for preceding 4 years (2007-2010), etc.) at this time last year, we should have expected Werth to have a wRC of 109.21. His actual 2011 wRC was 76. In other words, he underperformed by -33.29 from his projection. This was the worst underperformance on the 2011 Nats.

To put this into perspective, 2011 Jayson Werth was a plague on the Nats greater than to the combined calamities of the injury to Zimmerman (-4.98), La Roche (-12.47), and the puzzling existence of Matt Stairs (-8.33; I still believe Stairs's presence on the '11 Nats is proof he has some unbelievably good blackmail material on Rizzo).

But, as I said, I baked that calamity into my 2012 models. It is my fervent hope that it does not revisit the Nats this year.

I object to the claim above, as you first say:

"we should have expected Werth to have a wRC of 109.21. His actual 2011 wRC was 76. In other words, he underperformed by -33.29 from his projection."

This statement then leads you to say that:

"To put this into perspective, 2011 Jayson Werth was a plague on the Nats greater than to the combined calamities..."

This claim is extremely misleading. The way you have said it strongly implies that Werth hurt the Nats more than Matt Stairs' existence (and Zim and LaRoche's injuries, but I'll get to that). However, simple use of WAR proves your statement false - Werth's WAR was much higher than Stairs'. As for the Zim + LaRoche injuries, you're dealing with major hypotheticals with regard to their production, which brings me to this:

I THINK you're trying to say that relative to your calculations, Werth underestimated your projections more significantly than any other Nat (and by those three Nats combined); however, this differs strongly with "2011 Jayson Werth was a plague on the Nats". He was not, and if he had not played, we would not have done as well as we did this past season.

I'm not assuming any malicious intent on your end to slander Werth; on the contrary, I've found your posts very enlightening so far. I just wanted to make that distinction especially in light of your posts' informative nature, as I wouldn't want such a discrepancy to be held up as fact.

Online PowerBoater69

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Re: Will the offense suck or not?
« Reply #51: January 30, 2012, 06:32:53 PM »
Ouij:  Saw my quotes in your blog with the link to WNFF,  but where is the attribution for PB69???  :-)

http://natstradamus.wordpress.com/2012/01/30/the-limits-of-prescience/

Offline JMW IV

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Re: Will the offense suck or not?
« Reply #52: January 30, 2012, 08:01:45 PM »
The Offense won't "suck" per se.

But it won't be playoff-caliber unless everything is a good bit more than perfect.

This is what it will take for the Nats to post a playoff-caliber offense:

1)Harper Mashes from day 1.
2)Morse improves on last year
3)LaRoche either puts up career-best numbers, or brings us a quality OFer in trade.
     3a)Said Quality OFer puts up good numbers immediately.
4)Desmond learns how to hit, and take a walk, and magically turns into a quality leadoff man.
5)Nobody, and I mean nobody, regresses from last season
6)Werth reverts back to some semblance of who he was in Philly
7)Zimmerman stays healthy all season and posts career norms.

if all of the above happen, then the offense will work as is.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: Will the offense suck or not?
« Reply #53: January 30, 2012, 08:06:00 PM »
Well Morse really only needs to put up the same numbers and it'll work. He definitely needs to have a strong first month, though, so we don't have to deal with what happened last April.

A lot of our offense came from Nix as well last year, at least in the summer months. Hopefully LaRoche can put up similar numbers.

Offline The Chief

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Re: Will the offense suck or not?
« Reply #54: January 30, 2012, 08:40:14 PM »
People getting hung up on "suck" - I don't think the author of the thread meant "suck" to be taken entirely seriously.

Offline ouij

  • Posts: 6
Re: Will the offense suck or not?
« Reply #55: January 30, 2012, 09:55:17 PM »
I object to the claim above, as you first say:

"we should have expected Werth to have a wRC of 109.21. His actual 2011 wRC was 76. In other words, he underperformed by -33.29 from his projection."

This statement then leads you to say that:

"To put this into perspective, 2011 Jayson Werth was a plague on the Nats greater than to the combined calamities..."

This claim is extremely misleading. The way you have said it strongly implies that Werth hurt the Nats more than Matt Stairs' existence (and Zim and LaRoche's injuries, but I'll get to that). However, simple use of WAR proves your statement false - Werth's WAR was much higher than Stairs'. As for the Zim + LaRoche injuries, you're dealing with major hypotheticals with regard to their production, which brings me to this:

I THINK you're trying to say that relative to your calculations, Werth underestimated your projections more significantly than any other Nat (and by those three Nats combined); however, this differs strongly with "2011 Jayson Werth was a plague on the Nats". He was not, and if he had not played, we would not have done as well as we did this past season.

I'm not assuming any malicious intent on your end to slander Werth; on the contrary, I've found your posts very enlightening so far. I just wanted to make that distinction especially in light of your posts' informative nature, as I wouldn't want such a discrepancy to be held up as fact.

I don't disagree, and thanks for pointing this out.

Yes, measured against the objective "replacement player" Werth is much better than Stairs. I guess what I was getting at is this: if there's a reason fans got frustrated (and very vocal) at Werth in 2011, it's captured in the difference between what the Nats told fans they were getting (that 109 wRC figure) and what we actually saw (the not-altogether-awful 76 wRC).

Werth was a fairly capable defender overall last year (+1.0 UZR), which certainly helps his WAR. But he did under-perform, both with respect to his career figures and the more recent moving average I used in my calculations. It is my hope that he will perform much closer to the level that I expect of him. Otherwise, I'll just have to keep on rooting for him through gritted teeth--and by the end of the contract, I'll have no teeth left to grit.

Offline welch

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Re: Will the offense suck or not?
« Reply #56: January 30, 2012, 11:51:20 PM »
The offense looks mediocre. If Harper is Joe Hardy, and if there are no injuries, the offense could keep up with the pitching. If any player gets hurt, or if Harper and Werth don't play like all-stars, this could be long and painful.

Cameron? That's all there is?

Offline Vega

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Re: Will the offense suck or not?
« Reply #57: January 31, 2012, 12:14:50 AM »
Looks like Linty has voted twenty times already...

Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: Will the offense suck or not?
« Reply #58: January 31, 2012, 07:41:54 AM »
If you mean "not good enough to make the postseason" than yes, it will suck.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Will the offense suck or not?
« Reply #59: January 31, 2012, 01:20:28 PM »
Several guys should have an OPS between .800 and .850 - Zim, Morse, Werth, and LaRoche.

I would guess Desmond, Espinosa, and Ramos will all be between .700 and .750.

That last outfield spot could be a disaster if Bernie/Cameron stink.  Could be better if they do well or Harper does great.