Author Topic: The Weather (2012)  (Read 15946 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online Nathan

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 10466
  • Wow. Such warnings. Very baseball. Moderator Doge.
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #125: February 16, 2012, 01:44:17 AM »
models continue to go back and forth between a wet snow / rain event for Sunday in the D.C. area.

What about for me? :nervous:

Offline CatsEye

  • Posts: 1652
  • Very weird season -Creepy - What....
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #126: February 16, 2012, 07:05:36 AM »
What about for me? :nervous:
          Doom and Gloom........ :stir:


Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 13675
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #127: February 16, 2012, 09:02:48 AM »
There seems to be desperation among local weather guys for snow this year- calling for it twice in the next ten days

Offline PatsNats28

  • Posts: 8384
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #128: February 16, 2012, 10:05:00 AM »
Going to DC (on Amtrak right now)... was hoping the weather would be nicer than it is in Boston, but alas, it's basically the same.

Offline Obed_Marsh

  • Posts: 7666
  • ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn
    • Photos
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #129: February 16, 2012, 10:23:10 AM »
So the Nor'easter Sunday isn't happening?

Offline Frau Mau

  • Posts: 1109
  • Good boy!
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #130: February 16, 2012, 11:31:31 AM »
So the Nor'easter Sunday isn't happening?


Oh poo. I wanted some snow this year.

Offline comish4lif

  • Posts: 2497
  • Too Stressed to care.
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #131: February 16, 2012, 12:09:05 PM »
Today's weather sucks. Wish it was 15 degrees colder and we'd have 4" of snow by now...

Offline imref

  • Posts: 15277
  • In Matt We Trust!
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #132: February 16, 2012, 02:22:33 PM »
GFS and Euro both again showing late Sunday snow for the D.C. area.  GFS is pushing the storm a bit more to the North.  This seems to be one of those storms that are so highly variable that the weathermen don't want to make a call.  Margusity says we'll get some snow in D.C.

Capital weather gang says 50% chance of accumulating snow, but they won't have a good feel for the storm until tomorrow.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 15923
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #133: February 16, 2012, 02:48:04 PM »
Maybe Berkeley can put up some photos of euro models.

Online Nathan

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 10466
  • Wow. Such warnings. Very baseball. Moderator Doge.
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #134: February 16, 2012, 05:51:19 PM »
Maybe Berkeley can put up some photos of euro models.

:funny:

Offline imref

  • Posts: 15277
  • In Matt We Trust!
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #135: February 16, 2012, 10:39:43 PM »
Weatheronline says "significant" heavy accumulating snow for the mid atlantic. Richmond north to philly.  Saturday evening into sunday.  Here we go.....

Offline The Chief

  • Posts: 29978
  • Very 2014. Wow.
    • http://www.wnff.net
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #136: February 16, 2012, 10:40:17 PM »
Why can't it ever be on a damn weekday?

Online Nathan

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 10466
  • Wow. Such warnings. Very baseball. Moderator Doge.
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #137: February 16, 2012, 10:42:40 PM »
Weatheronline says "significant" heavy accumulating snow for the mid atlantic. Richmond north to philly.  Saturday evening into sunday.  Here we go.....

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

Online Nathan

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 10466
  • Wow. Such warnings. Very baseball. Moderator Doge.
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #138: February 16, 2012, 10:47:25 PM »
Link?

Offline MarquisDeSade

  • Posts: 13447
  • The Truth.
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #139: February 16, 2012, 10:47:36 PM »
I look forward to it being 55 degrees and biking in shorts again...

Offline imref

  • Posts: 15277
  • In Matt We Trust!

Offline imref

  • Posts: 15277
  • In Matt We Trust!
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #141: February 16, 2012, 11:05:53 PM »
If I'm reading the latest NAM model correctly, it's showing around a foot in metro dc where the storm is centered, and around 6" for a wide swath west. Still early though.

Online Nathan

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 10466
  • Wow. Such warnings. Very baseball. Moderator Doge.
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #142: February 16, 2012, 11:07:00 PM »
If I'm reading the latest NAM model correctly, it's showing around a foot in metro dc where the storm is centered, and around 6" for a wide swath west. Still early though.

Where do you get all this stuff?  Anywhere other than facebook?  I can't get to that now.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 15277
  • In Matt We Trust!
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #143: February 16, 2012, 11:09:22 PM »
Capital weather gang tweeted the latest nam a few minutes ago.  CWG is my favorite source for weather info.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 15277
  • In Matt We Trust!
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #144: February 16, 2012, 11:11:12 PM »
http://ow.ly/i/sPUD for the nam. I believe it's about 1" of moisture to a foot of snow.  So it looks like the brunt is eastern dc and the Delmarva.

Online Nathan

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 10466
  • Wow. Such warnings. Very baseball. Moderator Doge.
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #145: February 16, 2012, 11:21:09 PM »
http://ow.ly/i/sPUD for the nam. I believe it's about 1" of moisture to a foot of snow.  So it looks like the brunt is eastern dc and the Delmarva.


I think I'm in the .5" of moisture area.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 15277
  • In Matt We Trust!
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #146: February 16, 2012, 11:54:18 PM »
CWG just posted an update:

Quote
The models coming in this evening, thus far, have trended colder - which is critical for Sunday’s snow prospects. And while some earlier model runs showed the storm just grazing us, according to this evening’s runs, it now delivers a pretty good blow. So it looks like the necessary moisture and cold air may be coming together for accumulating snow Sunday. But - with the storm still 60-70 hours away - significant fluctuations to the forecast are possible.

This evening’s NAM model, which weather geeks are salivating over, simulates moderate to heavy snow during the day on Sunday, with significant accumulations and temperatures falling below freezing. The GFS run is actually quite similar to to the NAM, just a little warmer and with less moisture (about one third less total precipitation).

The bottom line is that the chances of accumulating snow Sunday have increased. We’ve raised our Snow Potential Index to 6, and the odds of at least 1” of snow are now better than 50/50.

Here’s how I’d characterize current snow probabilities for inside the beltway:

At least 1”: 55%

At least 3”: 40%

At least 5”: 20%

These probabilities are higher to the west and southwest. We’ll release an initial accumulation map tomorrow by midday.

Offline MarquisDeSade

  • Posts: 13447
  • The Truth.
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #147: February 17, 2012, 07:02:23 AM »
CWG just posted an update:

I'll be sure to post pictures of my sitting in shorts on my steel horse on Saturday when it hits 55º.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 15277
  • In Matt We Trust!
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #148: February 17, 2012, 07:54:35 AM »
3-6" in dc according to accuweather. 

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 13675
Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #149: February 17, 2012, 08:01:20 AM »
Of course, the one storm we get will be on a Sunday before a holiday (I still say dusting)