Author Topic: The Weather (2012)  (Read 18654 times)

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Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #475: October 25, 2012, 09:43:14 PM »
i haven't seen weather folks with this kind of sense of foreboding since Katrina,  there seems to be general consensus that this is going to be a storm unlike anything we've ever seen before.  The latest models indicate that this storm will have significantly lower pressure then "any" storm to ever strike the mid-atlantic, around 940MB versus a previous low of 955MB.  They are attributing it to a "warmer then normal jet stream."



Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #476: October 25, 2012, 09:44:55 PM »
the storm is currently 2,000 miles wide.

yes, 2,000.  TS force winds are 200 miles wide.


Offline Nathan

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #477: October 25, 2012, 10:38:04 PM »
So, is it hitting us, or more to the North, or what?

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #478: October 25, 2012, 10:41:38 PM »
So, is it hitting us, or more to the North, or what?


10 PM runs of the Euro show a direct hit on Chincoteague.  Some weathermen give more credence to the GFS model which shows a more northerly track, but for the last 48 hours the GFS keeps moving toward the Euro, not the other way around, and most of the meteorologists I'm following argue that the Euro is a more accurate hurricane tracker.

Here's CWG's latest:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/models-trending-south-some-with-hurricane-sandy-track-mid-atlantic-strike-threat-increasing/2012/10/25/c8407096-1f10-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html

They'll be an 11 PM update from the NHC as well.  If it hits Chincoteague, you are talking about a tremendous storm surge into the Bay.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #479: October 25, 2012, 10:48:21 PM »
Smack in the chicharones, mate.  Get that snow shovel, tarp, and sterno ready.  Maybe a case of pale ale to stick in the snow once the snow-crusted trees have taken down all of the power lines.

So, is it hitting us, or more to the North, or what?


Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #480: October 25, 2012, 10:50:53 PM »
Everything I have read is consistent with this.  So...book it, $hitshow from hell about to happen.  Of course, meteorology is a black science, but this one seems pretty inevitable.

10 PM runs of the Euro show a direct hit on Chincoteague.  Some weathermen give more credence to the GFS model which shows a more northerly track, but for the last 48 hours the GFS keeps moving toward the Euro, not the other way around, and most of the meteorologists I'm following argue that the Euro is a more accurate hurricane tracker.

Here's CWG's latest:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/models-trending-south-some-with-hurricane-sandy-track-mid-atlantic-strike-threat-increasing/2012/10/25/c8407096-1f10-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html

They'll be an 11 PM update from the NHC as well.  If it hits Chincoteague, you are talking about a tremendous storm surge into the Bay.



Offline Coladar

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #481: October 25, 2012, 11:29:51 PM »
freak. The 11pm update moves it... just about exactly over us. With 80mph sustained winds. I hate to sound foreboding, but this area has gone untested for a half century with winds. There are a million weak trees. Look at the August storm where we lost power for a week. This crap could be Armageddon for DC area.

Offline Nathan

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #482: October 26, 2012, 12:06:26 AM »
Smack in the chicharones, mate.  Get that snow shovel, tarp, and sterno ready.  Maybe a case of pale ale to stick in the snow once the snow-crusted trees have taken down all of the power lines.



It's supposed to be cold enough for snow?  Damn.  When does it hit.  It's been a long time since I took Meteorology 101 so hell if I know how to read these models anymore.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #483: October 26, 2012, 12:09:41 AM »
The snow should start as soon as the toads have stopped falling.  But there might be a few locusts first. 

So Sunday night probably. 

Offline Nathan

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #484: October 26, 2012, 12:19:49 AM »
freak.  How am I going to get my beer in that!?

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #485: October 26, 2012, 06:19:10 AM »
Good grief, I didn't have power for like 5 days after the Derecho. This could be awful.

It's a real possibility I get flooded in to my little area.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #486: October 26, 2012, 07:57:10 AM »
Channel 7 / the folks on WTOP were still saying south Jersey was most likely landfall at 5:30 this AM.  I wonder if the that means flammable spray on tanning oil slicks?

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #487: October 26, 2012, 08:21:58 AM »
the NHC official track is moved south, much more in line with the Euro:

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/404744_438687476178516_35315103_n.jpg

Online Slateman

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #488: October 26, 2012, 08:53:33 AM »
We are all going to die

Actually, I'm supposed to fly to Alaska early Tuesday morning ...

Offline OldChelsea

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #489: October 26, 2012, 09:01:57 AM »
Weather.com's current forecast:

Sunday - High 58, low 49, 90% chance of rain, wind topping at 14mph
Monday - High 50, low 41, 70% chance of rain, wind topping at 40mph
Tuesday - High 45, low 39, 30% chance of rain, wind topping at 29mph

Updating:

Sunday - High 58, low 50, 60% chance of rain, wind topping at 22mph
Monday - High 52, low 43, 70% chance of rain, wind topping at 25mph
Tuesday - High 44, low 43, 80% chance of rain, wind topping at 37mph with gusts to 50mph

Online blue911

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #490: October 26, 2012, 09:17:45 AM »
freak.  How am I going to get my beer in that!?

Home brewing, duh

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #491: October 26, 2012, 09:36:03 AM »
Do you home brew, Blue? My brother is really into that.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #492: October 26, 2012, 10:02:14 AM »
You know this thread could not go on much longer without me posting this:
Bruce Springsteen - 4th Of July, Asbury Park (Sandy) (1974) Audio


Agora Ballroom in Cleveland June 1974.  sorry for the feedback at abotu 3:00, but this is a great version.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #493: October 26, 2012, 10:08:49 AM »
another update - models continue to suggest this will be the lowest pressure storm ever recorded on the east coast.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-may-be-unprecedented-in-east-coast-storm-history/2012/10/26/4f6660e6-1f6e-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html#pagebreak

what does it mean?

Quote
These historic low pressure levels simulated by the model are equivalent to a category 3 or 4 hurricane, which have peak winds over 115 mph. But Sandy’s winds will not be that high, because as it transitions into this hybrid hurricane-nor’easter, its core will unwind. So its peak winds will diminish, but strong winds will be felt over a vast area. Think of a compressed slinky expanding as you let it go.

WJLA meteorologist Ryan Miller notes 66,549,869 people live in the National Hurricane Center’s track zone for Sandy. A large percentage of these people will likely contend with tropical storm force winds - over 40-60 mph, if not somewhat greater.

Offline imref

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Offline 1995hoo

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #495: October 26, 2012, 10:56:27 AM »

(Image removed from quote.)


to heck with the wave, what a nice car!


The car is what made me think it's a great picture.


Speaking of cars, I find it amusing how the media advice on preparing for the storm is always focused on grocery shopping. Two things they never mention are getting cash and putting gas in the car. ATMs and electronic gas pumps do not work if there is no power.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #496: October 26, 2012, 11:06:29 AM »
Quote
I’ll conclude with this note posted in the blog by AccuWeather senior Vice President Mike Smith:

A very prominent and respected National Weather Service meteorologist wrote on Facebook last night,

I’ve never seen anything like this and I’m at a loss for expletives to describe what this storm could do.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-may-be-unprecedented-in-east-coast-storm-history/2012/10/26/4f6660e6-1f6e-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html#pagebreak

Online NationalHeat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #497: October 26, 2012, 11:11:06 AM »
Updating:

Sunday - High 58, low 50, 60% chance of rain, wind topping at 22mph
Monday - High 52, low 43, 70% chance of rain, wind topping at 25mph
Tuesday - High 44, low 43, 80% chance of rain, wind topping at 37mph with gusts to 50mph

In other words, if you live in DC, chill out.

We will probably lose power, but thats it. Unless you live on the coast or in the mountains, you'll be good.  I can tell you from years of experience that even up to 60-70 MPH is nothing, and we wouldn't even put up our shutters for that in FL.

Offline GburgNatsFan2

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #498: October 26, 2012, 11:11:38 AM »
That's what Cubans do, they keep their old 1950s American cars running. Of course, they now have industrial diesel engines and truck running gear... but they still go.

The car is what made me think it's a great picture.



Online NationalHeat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #499: October 26, 2012, 11:12:28 AM »
That's what Cubans do, they keep their old 1950s American cars running. Of course, they now have industrial diesel engines and truck running gear... but they still go.

We have no other choice  :bow: