Author Topic: The Weather (2012)  (Read 16528 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #425: September 18, 2012, 03:40:25 PM »
I've taken the train a few times in the dead of winter.  Two winters ago, I took the overnight train back Christmas night to avoid the blizzard we were supposed to get here, which missed here but bombed New England later that Sunday.  I also took the train back when I had three flights cancelled out of Boston in the middle of those bad blizzards in early February 2010.

If I go southwest, then I definitely will switch to the train. If I go USAirways, I try to make them get me back here so that I'm not out the money on the fare. JCAAC.

Offline Clever

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #426: September 18, 2012, 04:01:39 PM »
It's raining hardly right now.

Offline Nathan

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #427: September 18, 2012, 06:46:05 PM »
I was going to check my rain gauge but it had overflowed :shock:

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #428: September 18, 2012, 06:50:15 PM »
My son's at College Park this year. he avoided getting soaked today, but he only rides from the View.

Weather sucks in College Park. Lots or soaked students. I ride to campus and almost got blown over once or twice. Good exercise though.


Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #429: September 18, 2012, 08:00:26 PM »
I was going to check my rain gauge but it had overflowed :shock:

Just one inch for me.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #430: September 18, 2012, 09:19:08 PM »
Don't feel bad. A lot of good men have that problem.
Just one inch for me.


Offline tomterp

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #431: September 18, 2012, 09:20:09 PM »
Don't feel bad. A lot of good men have that problem.

I was wondering how long it would take for someone to pounce on that.


Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #432: September 18, 2012, 09:20:37 PM »
 :rimshot:

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #433: September 18, 2012, 09:22:13 PM »
I'll be here all week. Try the veal.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #434: September 18, 2012, 09:24:09 PM »
I'll be here all week. Try the veal.

best post ever.

Offline CALSGR8

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #435: October 06, 2012, 02:16:31 PM »
Cool front coming through Manassas!

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #436: October 22, 2012, 04:45:42 PM »
there is the potential of a massive storm striking somewhere along the mid-to-upper atlantic coast on Monday.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/monster-east-coast-storm-next-week-or-big-miss/2012/10/22/94bc2152-1c72-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html#pagebreak

Worst case scenario - very slow moving storm with heavy rains and tropical force winds.  Or, it could end up being nothing. :)

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #437: October 22, 2012, 04:58:17 PM »
That Euro track looks like a heck of time for Buzzards Bay and Cape Cod.  Also, if it hits the mid-Atlantic, we can Blame Canada!

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #438: October 22, 2012, 05:00:32 PM »
Wow...20 years almost to the day after the "Perfect Storm"

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #439: October 23, 2012, 11:26:53 PM »
Here's the latest Euro Model run from this morning.



NWS:
Quote
THEREIN LIES THE STORM'S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING
THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY,
OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS
OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY
DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE
OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS
POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #440: October 24, 2012, 10:27:21 AM »
Another update, and a model run for 10-29:

Quote
Sandy, now a strong Tropical Storm, is on the verge of becoming a hurricane. It will move through the Caribbean, impacting Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas as it does so. By this weekend, the storm system will be located just off the US southeast coast. Where it goes from there is still not completely known; while medium and long range forecast guidance differ in their solutions, more solutions bring Sandy to the northeast coast than don't and because of the increased odds of impact, residents in that area should begin to prepare out of an abundance of caution. By Friday, the meteorological community should have a better handle on Sandy's future track and should be able to inform the public whether hurricane preparation plans should turn into actions.

Hurricane Sandy will be joined by an abundance of atmospheric energy as it moves north, with a strong system moving over the great lakes, an unusually positioned jet stream, and an early season pool of Artic air sliding down from Canada. Similar to the "Perfect Storm" of 1991, this event may be even "more perfect" with more variables conspiring to create a truly historic storm. The result from some of the more ominous model solutions paints a picture of an extra-tropical cyclone that has the equivalent strength of a Category 1 hurricane in places like New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. (Other models shift direct impact futher up/down the east coast.)

The result will be an impressive "hybrid" nor'easter/hurricane, with storm force winds well inland, extremely heavy rains of 4-8"+, and exceptionally rough surf; waves may grow in excess of 30-40 feet tall just off-shore. Winds from this storm could be substantially worse than they were with Hurricane Irene throughout New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, New York, and southeastern New England.

The storm is still several days away, giving residents ample time to prepare. Effects from this storm may move into the region as early as the latter part of this weekend and linger into Monday or Tuesday of next week. ** Again, it can't be stressed enough that the exact size, strength, and future track of this storm is not yet etched in stone...but out of an abundance of caution, residents should prepare for the possibility of a worse-case scenario while hoping for the best.**

We will continue to update information through our broadcast and online channels. On Facebook, be sure to select "Show in Newsfeed" under the "Like" button so that future updates and graphics appear when you log-on there. Follow us on Twitter at @theWeatherboy and check the latest maps and warnings at http://www.weatheronline.com/



Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #441: October 24, 2012, 10:29:50 AM »
GFDL model shows a Cat-4 storm striking delaware.  CWG points out that this model is notoriously unreliable.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #442: October 24, 2012, 10:51:02 AM »
Could you imagine if this storm was a week later?

IIRC the Blizzard of '78, which hit Massachusetts really hard in February.  1978 had Dukakis running for reelection with a tough September primary opponent.  Dukakis had been governor during a real tough economic stretch that hit the state very hard, worse than most of the country.  When the Blizzard hit, Dukakis did a great job on the recovery, running the emergency management office, going on TV in a sweater rather than a suit, directing the snow clearing etc...  Just about the opposite of Katrina in terms of Chief Executive involvement. His popularity soared, and he was thought to be a shoe in.  Had the primary been in March, that might have been the case, but as the year moved on, the storm bump disipated and he lost his primary.

Looking at the states this one is targeting, I've got to wonder what its impact would have been on New Hampshire, Philly and NoVa (Loudon and west) turnout.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #443: October 24, 2012, 02:51:55 PM »
the latest Euro model shows the storm coming up and into the Chesapeake Bay.  Monday-Tuesday is going to be very very interesting.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #444: October 24, 2012, 02:55:27 PM »
GFS has shifted west too:


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Offline Mathguy

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #446: October 24, 2012, 10:01:34 PM »
Could be interesting for us, as we move to OBX tomorrow

the latest Euro model shows the storm coming up and into the Chesapeake Bay.  Monday-Tuesday is going to be very very interesting.


Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #447: October 24, 2012, 11:16:43 PM »
Permanently?

Wow. 

Congrats...but sorry about the weather.

Could be interesting for us, as we move to OBX tomorrow




Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #448: October 24, 2012, 11:56:18 PM »
Good luck mathguy.

Every model but the GFS is still showing a massive storm hitting somewhere from Va up to NYC, GFS has it turning more out to sea but the GFS isn't usually accurate in these scenarios from what I've read tonight. 

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #449: October 25, 2012, 12:01:16 AM »
Sandy now category 3 by pressure, most intense hurricane since Ophelia last year.

Does it not realize that it is october and things are supposed to be cooling down by now?