Author Topic: The Weather (2012)  (Read 17442 times)

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Offline Frau Mau

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #400: August 09, 2012, 01:28:56 PM »
Does anyone understand weatherman math? On the 10 day view there is a 40% chance of rain, on the hourly a 40% chance at 8:00, a 50% chance at 9:00 and a 60% chance at 10:00 and 11:00

No.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #401: August 09, 2012, 01:37:11 PM »
The hours in the daily basis of the 10 day include more than the 8pm-11pm data

Does anyone understand weatherman math? On the 10 day view there is a 40% chance of rain, on the hourly a 40% chance at 8:00, a 50% chance at 9:00 and a 60% chance at 10:00 and 11:00


Offline hammondsnats

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #402: August 09, 2012, 02:16:18 PM »
last night was so nice.   had some brews and a stogie outside watching the nats game.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #403: August 09, 2012, 02:18:36 PM »
The hours in the daily basis of the 10 day include more than the 8pm-11pm data



So shouldn't the chance be higher on the ten day- i.e. if the probability if something happening in a given hour varies between 40% and 60% percent, how can a day that includes those hours have a probability of the same event happening of less than 60%

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #404: August 09, 2012, 04:25:43 PM »
It also only takes one hit in 24 hours to have it rain that day.  You would think the odds for rain would be equal to the highest odds for rain at any time.  It could not be lower than 60% if, during one hour, the odds for rain is 60%.  Perhaps it could be higher (a base of 60% plus some odds for it not raining during that hour yet raining during another).

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #405: September 08, 2012, 05:44:35 PM »
bump.  post your pictures here.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #406: September 09, 2012, 01:24:39 AM »
My phone was full of water within seconds of that first squall line...so no photos.  I saw several hats actually leave the stadium in those first gusts...I wonder how many osprey chicks will grow up in nests lined with New Era Authentic Collection shwag. 

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #407: September 17, 2012, 07:30:58 PM »
weather people seem to be really concerned about tomorrow's storms, worst part is expected around the evening commute.



CWG notes:
Quote
The NAM model shows very strong winds (50-60+ knots or 55-70 mph) at an altitude of about 5,000 feet Tuesday afternoon and evening blowing through the region. Should thunderstorms develop, they may force these winds down to the ground.



Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #408: September 17, 2012, 07:53:37 PM »
Phudge!  I'm supposed to fly into DCA at 6:30 PM.  Guessing I don't get out of  Boston that evening.

Offline CALSGR8

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #409: September 17, 2012, 08:08:53 PM »
Phudge!  I'm supposed to fly into DCA at 6:30 PM.  Guessing I don't get out of  Boston that evening.

Have a lobster roll while you wait. ;)

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #410: September 17, 2012, 08:59:28 PM »
Phudge!  I'm supposed to fly into DCA at 6:30 PM.  Guessing I don't get out of  Boston that evening.

Ever try Acela?  It's about a 6 hour trip.  I take it all the time to NYC and back.  I took it once home from Boston after Logan and Dulles were both getting hit with ice storms.  With the 6 hour trip, and the cab ride from Union Station back to Dulles to get my car, I still got to Dulles only 30 minutes after my flight and had a much more enjoyable trip.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #411: September 17, 2012, 08:59:53 PM »
Have a lobster roll while you wait. ;)

Potbelly's just opened in the United/Jet Blue terminal at Logan!

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #412: September 18, 2012, 11:34:28 AM »
entire D.C. region under a tornado watch until 7 PM.  We're getting hit with very strong storms here in western prince william county.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #413: September 18, 2012, 12:10:44 PM »
Just cancel the game so I don't have to drive down to South Capitol street.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #414: September 18, 2012, 12:28:58 PM »
Guessing I don't get out of  Boston that evening.

i'm sure you're happy 8)

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #415: September 18, 2012, 02:33:44 PM »
hell of a line of storms moving through western PWC now, we just got hit with severe winds/sideways rain but it was over in about 5-10 minutes.  50-60 MPH winds, heading towards Manassas/Aldie/Ashburn now.

Offline CALSGR8

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #416: September 18, 2012, 02:36:48 PM »
Pouring like crazy in Manassas city!

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #417: September 18, 2012, 02:40:47 PM »
Just cancel the game so I don't have to drive down to South Capitol street.


Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #418: September 18, 2012, 02:43:50 PM »


the storms should be out by 8 PM, there's probably a really good chance now of playing.  CWG should have an update soon.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #419: September 18, 2012, 02:52:09 PM »
the storms should be out by 8 PM, there's probably a really good chance now of playing.  CWG should have an update soon.


Where do you see that? I can't find a good CWG update, Accuweather and Weather.com has storms all night until midnight.

Offline Slateman

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #420: September 18, 2012, 02:53:22 PM »
If I leave now .... I'll get rained on

Offline OldChelsea

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #421: September 18, 2012, 03:11:23 PM »
Where do you see that? I can't find a good CWG update, Accuweather and Weather.com has storms all night until midnight.

...including (in the latter case) forecasts of 90-100% chance of rain from 16.00 through 21.00 inclusive - I looked at CWG about a half hour ago and didn't notice an update either.

Will probably take a pass on tonight's match - really don't feel like blowing $10 return on the transit just to go sit in the drizzle all evening waiting for them to remove the tarp (especially when I have to go to work at 06.00 the next morning).

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #422: September 18, 2012, 03:27:42 PM »
James Wagner ‏@JamesWagnerWP
Tarp on the field. And it does not look good at all at Nats Park.

DO SOMETHING RIZZO :whip:

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #423: September 18, 2012, 03:34:09 PM »
Phudge!  I'm supposed to fly into DCA at 6:30 PM.  Guessing I don't get out of  Boston that evening.

Well, I decided to skip going to the synagogue for the 2d day of Rosh Hashanah and headed to the airport early.  By the time I got to the airport, USAirways had dropped the fee for changing flights.  I was able to get on the noon shuttle, and was back at my apartment in CC at 1:45.

Verizon FIOS flickered bad right at about 3 or so, but the down pour and gusts from about 15 minutes ago has stopped.  They have a farmers market across the street from my apartment on Tuesday from  3 -7, and they were setting up when I got home.  Right now, I'm thinking it looks like that Gallagher at the Farmer's  Market commercial for GEICO.

Offline lastobjective

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #424: September 18, 2012, 03:39:30 PM »
Weather sucks in College Park. Lots or soaked students. I ride to campus and almost got blown over once or twice. Good exercise though.