Here are some snippets from the Thursday morning update from one of the more reliable analysts. Mathguy, you may want to make alternative plans for next week just in case.
https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/-alert-thursday-morning-update-oct-25/438357316211532 Let me repeat that. Not a single one of the new hurricane models show sandy going out to sea without making an impact on land. WELCOME TO 5 DAYS AGO. But in addition there is a cluster of tracks showing a land fall in the Delmarva which again identical to the tracks shown by the 0z European model the 0z navy model and the 0z GFDL.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? The threat to the Middle Atlantic Coast is increasing. The media coverage should begin to really ramp up here today as the hurricane models are now shifted all towards the coast. This remains a unusual event not only because it's late October but because SANDY m is going to turn sharply to northwest then west northwest as it strikes the coast. I think .. but I do not know for sure yet-- think it's going to strike on the Delmarva but there still a lot of variability here and it's possible that SANDY could make landfall in New Jersey or even New York City or Long Island. Assuming that it does make landfall in the Delmarva --- the lower Maryland Eastern shore and Delaware peninsula for those of you who are geographically deprived -- that area can expect conditions at least as bad as what you saw with Isabel in 2003 and probably worse. Areas such as Ocean City Maryland Cape May New Jersey wallops island Virginia could take a devastating hit. The approach of the coast from the southwest of the northeast will drive a wall of water into the entire Delmarva region as well as Southern New Jersey and Hampton roads.... and to a lesser degree over northeastern North Carolina Northern New Jersey and New York City Long Island. The full Moon on the 29th is going to make things particularly bad and damaging along the coast with the storm tide. Winds could cost up to 90 mph in many locations
This also is a serious threat for the northern neck of Virginia as well as the wash DC Baltimore metro area and all of eastern Virginia including Hampton roads and Richmond. In all of these areas winds could reach up to 75 miles per hour in gusts during the height of the storm which will be fairly prolonged. The rainfall amounts will be at least 5 to 10 inches and these areas.
Significant rain and wind will push into all of Virginia and the interior portions of northeastern North Carolina as well as all of Maryland New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
The snowstorm potential here remains high especially in the elevation above 800 or 1000 feet. It is still too early to know which portion of the interior Middle Atlantic mountain areas are going to see the heavy snow but somebody is gonna get really crushed with an early season snowfall.
If the European navy and GFDL track are correct there will be snow showers throughout much of Central Virginia including the Richmond area on October 30-31.
