Author Topic: The Weather (2012)  (Read 20704 times)

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Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #450: October 25, 2012, 12:09:32 AM »
IIRC, the 'Perfect Storm' had 30+ foot waves actually hitting shore around coastal MA, NH, and ME.  This is starting to look ugly.   

Offline Coladar

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #451: October 25, 2012, 08:01:59 AM »
What are they expecting the winds to be when it makes landfall? Best I could find reading three differenr articles was turning into a Nor'Easter without indication of winds. From what I read it was so vague as to possibly make landfall with 30mph winds or 300mph winds (meaning they gave zero idea, not that 300mph winds would be possible.)

Seems the thing they're most hyping is the full moon and resultant flooding. I've always wondered how NYC would fare with a Category 3 or better storm. Obviously windows shattered and flying shrapnel would result in incredible death tolls, but I wonder how some of the older buildings would do. Not that this storm is going to do that - sounds like it'll either be us/DelMarVa or Mass. and Maine. Or simply out to sea. At least with the WS in SF on Sat-Mon and not returning to Detroit until Wednesday the impact there will be minimal to nada.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #452: October 25, 2012, 08:22:03 AM »
the only one I found to reference it was in relation to it hitting the hudson river valley (one of the early predictions) and that was category 1 far in land. I'd think/hope with modern building codes NYC wouldn't filled with shrapnel

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #453: October 25, 2012, 08:37:30 AM »
What are they expecting the winds to be when it makes landfall? Best I could find reading three differenr articles was turning into a Nor'Easter without indication of winds. From what I read it was so vague as to possibly make landfall with 30mph winds or 300mph winds (meaning they gave zero idea, not that 300mph winds would be possible.)

Seems the thing they're most hyping is the full moon and resultant flooding. I've always wondered how NYC would fare with a Category 3 or better storm. Obviously windows shattered and flying shrapnel would result in incredible death tolls, but I wonder how some of the older buildings would do. Not that this storm is going to do that - sounds like it'll either be us/DelMarVa or Mass. and Maine. Or simply out to sea. At least with the WS in SF on Sat-Mon and not returning to Detroit until Wednesday the impact there will be minimal to nada.

it's way too soon to know for sure, but it's pretty rare that anything above a cat-1 would hit at this time of the year, the concern is that if it merges with the other storm coming in from the west, it will be a huge storm with a vast wind-field (tropical-storm force) extending over hundreds of miles.  That's what happened Hazel and the '91 "perfect" storm.  Current NHS forecasts are calling for 70-80MPH winds by day 3.

if the storm pushed directly into lower manhattan, it would be far worse then Irene given high tides and the fact that this is a much more powerful storm, and even Irene caused significant flooding in the coastal areas of NYC.

Offline Slateman

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #454: October 25, 2012, 08:49:47 AM »
On Tuesday, the weatherman said it was going to be shining sun and mid to upper 70s all week and through the weekend.


Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #455: October 25, 2012, 09:08:09 AM »
Here are some snippets from the Thursday morning update from one of the more reliable analysts.  Mathguy, you may want to make alternative plans for next week just in case.

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/-alert-thursday-morning-update-oct-25/438357316211532

Quote
Let me repeat that.  Not a single one of the new hurricane models show sandy going out to sea without making an impact on land.   WELCOME  TO   5  DAYS  AGO.  But in addition there  is a cluster of tracks showing a land fall in the Delmarva which again identical  to the tracks shown by the 0z European model the 0z navy model and the 0z GFDL.
 
 
WHAT   DOES THIS  MEAN?  The threat to the Middle Atlantic Coast is increasing.  The media coverage should begin to really ramp up here today as the hurricane models are now shifted all towards the coast.  This remains a unusual event not only because it's late October but because  SANDY   m is going to turn sharply to northwest then west northwest as it strikes the coast.     I   think  .. but I do not  know for sure yet--   think it's going to strike on the Delmarva but there still a lot of variability here and it's possible that   SANDY could make landfall in New Jersey or even New York City or Long Island.   Assuming that it does make landfall in the Delmarva   --- the lower Maryland Eastern shore and Delaware peninsula for those of you who are geographically deprived -- that area can expect conditions at least as bad as what you saw with Isabel in 2003 and probably worse.  Areas such as Ocean City Maryland   Cape May New Jersey wallops island Virginia could take a devastating hit.  The approach of the coast from the southwest of the northeast will drive a wall of water into the entire Delmarva region as well as Southern New Jersey and Hampton roads....  and to a lesser degree over northeastern North Carolina Northern New Jersey and New York City Long Island.   The full Moon on the 29th is going to make things particularly bad and damaging along the coast with the storm  tide.  Winds could cost up to 90 mph in many locations
 
 
This also is a serious threat for the northern neck of Virginia as well as the wash  DC Baltimore metro area and all of eastern Virginia including Hampton roads and Richmond.  In all  of these areas winds could reach up to 75 miles per hour in gusts during the height of the storm which will be fairly prolonged.  The rainfall amounts will be at least 5 to 10 inches and these areas.
 
 
Significant rain and wind will push into all of Virginia and the interior portions of northeastern North Carolina as well as all of Maryland New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
 
 The snowstorm potential here remains high especially in the elevation above 800 or 1000 feet.  It is still too early to know which portion of the interior Middle Atlantic mountain areas are going to see the heavy snow but somebody is gonna get really crushed with an early season snowfall.
 
 If the European navy and GFDL track are correct there will be snow showers throughout much of Central Virginia including the Richmond area on October  30-31.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #456: October 25, 2012, 09:46:03 AM »
Snowfall in richmond?  Trick or treat, Linty / Chief.

It's not that I wish this on anyone, but isn't the middle of Long Island about the safest place on the coast for something like this to land?  big, long wide barrier island with the surge side to the east, avoiding the big surge in Narragansett or Buzzards Bay? 

There's some old, spectacular photos of the Hurricane of 1938 that clobbered Providence.  providence is at the head of narragansett bay, so a storm surge gets funneled into it. 

sounds like Old Town Alexandria could be in for a double hit between surge and rain drainage.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #457: October 25, 2012, 09:50:08 AM »
So this looks like it would hit on Monday morning if it turns in to hit the area?

Commute should be fun...

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #458: October 25, 2012, 10:20:19 AM »
Snowfall in richmond?  Trick or treat, Linty / Chief.

It's not that I wish this on anyone, but isn't the middle of Long Island about the safest place on the coast for something like this to land?  big, long wide barrier island with the surge side to the east, avoiding the big surge in Narragansett or Buzzards Bay? 

There's some old, spectacular photos of the Hurricane of 1938 that clobbered Providence.  providence is at the head of narragansett bay, so a storm surge gets funneled into it. 

sounds like Old Town Alexandria could be in for a double hit between surge and rain drainage.

I lived through Gloria in 1985 on long island.  We were about 2 miles from the south shore in suffolk CO and the eye came right over us.  There was lots of wind/rain, power was out for about 5 days, several large tries went down.  Closer to the shore it was an absolute mess.  Numerous houses crushed by falling trees, significant flooding along the coast, large amounts of beach erosion as well.  And, that was a Cat-1 storm that quickly broke up.

Offline OldChelsea

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #459: October 25, 2012, 10:37:33 AM »
Waether.com's current forecast:

Sunday - High 58, low 49, 90% chance of rain, wind topping at 14mph
Monday - High 50, low 41, 70% chance of rain, wind topping at 40mph
Tuesday - High 45, low 39, 30% chance of rain, wind topping at 29mph


Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #461: October 25, 2012, 12:36:47 PM »
Latest Euro:


Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #462: October 25, 2012, 12:50:14 PM »
now that looks like a proper $hitshow in the making

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #463: October 25, 2012, 02:16:24 PM »
Looks like major surge up the Delaware Bay from that track.

Surge up funnel shaped estuaries is never good.

Offline OldChelsea

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #464: October 25, 2012, 02:54:06 PM »
Even Politico has a piece on Sandy - that's how seriously people hereabouts are taking it (and should take it): http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82871.html?hp=l10

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #465: October 25, 2012, 03:19:05 PM »
every Euro run shows Sandy coming right up into the chesapeake bay.

CWG's latest says worst case scenario (30% chance):
Quote
* Rain likely begins Sunday morning and increases in intensity during the day. Winds also gradually pick up, becoming very gusty by evening.

* The heaviest rain and strongest winds occur late Sunday night into Monday afternoon, with widespread power outages. Peak sustained winds from 50-70 mph and gusts over 75 mph possible.

* Winds remain strong into Tuesday, gusting over 40 mph frequently.

* Rain and wind slowly taper off Tuesday or early Wednesday.

* Rainfall totals of at least 4-8”. Widespread flooding occurs in low lying areas and creeks/streams.

* Severe, possible historic coastal flooding for Maryland, Delaware beaches.

* Crippling snow possible at high elevations of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia, possibly 6-12” or more with tree damage, power outages.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-scenarios-for-washington-dc/2012/10/25/0ebdb0f2-1ec5-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html#pagebreak

Offline lastobjective

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #466: October 25, 2012, 03:39:26 PM »
Damn, getting to class on Monday is going to be a nag... might skip but I have to turn in homework by hand :| hopefully they'll call off classes if it gets as bad as predicted.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #467: October 25, 2012, 03:50:05 PM »
You should have to sit by a fireplace and write you lern'n out with charcoal, like we had too!

:old:

Offline tomterp

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #468: October 25, 2012, 04:16:05 PM »
Damn, getting to class on Monday is going to be a nag... might skip but I have to turn in homework by hand :| hopefully they'll call off classes if it gets as bad as predicted.

Snowball fight South Chapel Lawn, then break a few windows down on Frat row before adjourning to one of the fine Rte. 1 libation establishments.  Life could be worse.

Offline lastobjective

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #469: October 25, 2012, 04:21:06 PM »
Snowball fight South Chapel Lawn, then break a few windows down on Frat row before adjourning to one of the fine Rte. 1 libation establishments.  Life could be worse.
I was thinking it would rain. I don't have snow clothes here right now, going to need to buy gloves.

Offline 1995hoo

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #470: October 25, 2012, 04:31:02 PM »
I was thinking it would rain. I don't have snow clothes here right now, going to need to buy gloves.

That comment reminds me of a classmate of mine in law school who was wearing a windbreaker around during the so-called Blizzard of 1996. When I asked her why she wasn't wearing a warmer coat, she said that because she was from Connecticut she felt winter clothing should not be necessary in North Carolina and so she hadn't brought any.  :doh:

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #471: October 25, 2012, 04:32:58 PM »
Was she blonde?
That comment reminds me of a classmate of mine in law school who was wearing a windbreaker around during the so-called Blizzard of 1996. When I asked her why she wasn't wearing a warmer coat, she said that because she was from Connecticut she felt winter clothing should not be necessary in North Carolina and so she hadn't brought any.  :doh:


Offline 1995hoo

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #472: October 25, 2012, 04:43:19 PM »
Was she blonde?



Nope. Dark hair. Wasn't all that good-looking either, though she was a nice person and extremely intelligent. She landed a Supreme Court clerkship after we graduated, as I recall.


Regarding the weather, the Washington Post has this great photo of Sandy kicking up surf in Havana:


Offline tomterp

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #473: October 25, 2012, 09:28:31 PM »





to heck with the wave, what a nice car!

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: The Weather (2012)
« Reply #474: October 25, 2012, 09:32:35 PM »
Of course this happens my first year over at Salisbury. :hang: