Author Topic: Stats. Giggity!  (Read 17248 times)

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Offline houston-nat

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #100: April 22, 2013, 11:15:03 PM »
Look out tomorrow morning for my second contribution to the FanGraphs Community Research section, which is about the players with the ten lowest season BABIPs since 1945, and by strange coincidence is actually called The Ten Lowest BABIPs Since 1945. Wherein evidence is supplied for common and uncommon explanations of why a hitter's batting average on balls in play might suddenly decline.

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #101: April 23, 2013, 01:02:28 AM »
Can't wait to read it!

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #102: April 23, 2013, 08:33:48 AM »
Too bad they did not run the Werth article last year.  History might have been different.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #103: April 23, 2013, 08:56:42 AM »
Too bad they did not run the Werth article last year.  History might have been different.
For my next trick I'm planning a Detwiler piece explaining why I feel he can keep beating projections.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #105: April 25, 2013, 09:07:56 AM »
Does anyone have a link to the study of when hitting ratios stabilize?  In particular, after how many PAs can we say that K% is no longer a small sample size and now reflects a stable rate?

Offline blue911

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #106: April 25, 2013, 11:22:54 AM »
Does anyone have a link to the study of when hitting ratios stabilize?  In particular, after how many PAs can we say that K% is no longer a small sample size and now reflects a stable rate?

I asked Colin Wyers.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #107: April 25, 2013, 11:32:28 AM »
Does anyone have a link to the study of when hitting ratios stabilize?  In particular, after how many PAs can we say that K% is no longer a small sample size and now reflects a stable rate?
I think Cameron said that contact and swing % are the first things to stabilize and are already reliable. Was in a chat though. K%, unsure.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #108: April 25, 2013, 01:33:50 PM »
I'm sort of thinking of working up a good post on Espinosa and wanted to see if a decline in K% for a low contact hitter correlates to fewer deep counts and a worse BABIP.  What I floated yesterday.  I'll cede the idea to Houston if you want to be a regular writer for Fangraphs.

Offline blue911

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #109: April 25, 2013, 01:45:29 PM »
I'm sort of thinking of working up a good post on Espinosa and wanted to see if a decline in K% for a low contact hitter correlates to fewer deep counts and a worse BABIP.  What I floated yesterday.  I'll cede the idea to Houston if you want to be a regular writer for Fangraphs.

Espinosa is sitting at 2.77 P/PA down from 3.88 and 3.84 in previous seasons.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #110: April 25, 2013, 02:14:56 PM »
Wow.  How on Earth is it that Eckstein or Johnson has not gone up to him and said, "son, whatever you are doing to try to improve yourself, its wrong.  Go back to what you knew how to do."  It's one thing to change your swing lefty so you don't swing and miss as often.  It's another thing to waste that contact on pitches you can't hit.

Offline blue911

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #111: April 25, 2013, 03:00:49 PM »
Wow.  How on Earth is it that Eckstein or Johnson has not gone up to him and said, "son, whatever you are doing to try to improve yourself, its wrong.  Go back to what you knew how to do."  It's one thing to change your swing lefty so you don't swing and miss as often.  It's another thing to waste that contact on pitches you can't hit.

The problem is what he was doing was wrong. His XBH% is higher than before (SSS) so there is reason to look at exit velocity and spin type. There are so many variables with Danny, his shoulder injury,his wrist injury, and a rebuilt swing. I'm on board with the send him to Syracuse and call up Kobernus suggestion.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #112: April 25, 2013, 05:10:25 PM »
The shortened swing is better, and probably helping some, but it is the swinging at crud that is killing him.

The exit velocity we can speculate is better on the balls he hits that are Z-swings, but so much greater a % of his contact is on O-swings that I doubt he's getting better velocity over all.   His GB/FB  is up from 1.1 to 1.4 to 1.8 in 2011, 2012 and 2013.

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #113: April 26, 2013, 03:03:19 PM »
Denard Span up to #4 in UZR per Fangraphs.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #114: April 30, 2013, 09:09:47 AM »
While looking at Danny's K rate in a post in the Espinosa Question thread, I pulled the K rates, BB rates, and P/PA for the team. I thought that stuff should be here:

If you look at the 9 Nats with over 30 plate appearances this year, Danny is 5th in K% at 16.9%.  He's been around there for a couple of weeks.  This is roughly half of his K% of last year.  He's been bad offensively, but Ks are not his problem this year (yes, I saw Teheran in the first inning).

By the way, K% (Ks per PA) for the 9 nats with over 30 PAs this year, with BB% in parentheses:

             K%     (BB%)
ALR - 34.6%    (8.6%)

Desi - 25.3%   (3%)
RZ  - 23%        (11.5%)

Werth - 18.8% (5.9%)
Espi    - 16.9%  (3.9%)
Bryce  - 15.2%  (13.1%)
Zuki    - 15.2%  (13.6%)
Span   - 12.9%  (10.9%)

Lombo - 4.9%    (2.4%)

Gaps indicate >3% spread.

Looking at this, why not Suzuki batting second?  He's also tops in P/PA at 4.40 (Werth's 4.19, Harper's 4.13, and Span 4.09).  Lombo is 2.88, Espinosa is 3.2, and Desi is 3.47.  Why on Earth bat any of those guys 2d? 

Rendon, by the way, is 5.00 P/PA, with a K% of 26% and a BB% of 13%.

Offline Squab

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #115: April 30, 2013, 12:17:39 PM »
Part of that is the fact that Suzuki bats right before the pitcher, so he's often pitched around. The only reason Davey bat Lombo/Espi second recently is that's the lineup that produced a little offense, it's sucking now predictably.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #116: April 30, 2013, 01:19:19 PM »
Squab - perhaps you are right.  he is below average for P/PA for his career (3.66, avg is 3.81).  he almost always used to face about 62 - 65% strikes and this year he's faced 58%. He is drawing more walks, too. Something may be real here because he is drawing 2x the walks he drew last year when he batted 8th.   Most of his career, he's 2:1 K:BB ratio.  This year, it is 1.1:1.  Perhaps it is just he's very comfortable batting 8th in the NL. 

Still, I'm appalled at using Lombo and DE at #2.  They are both below .300 in OBP and do not work the count well.  I'd be inclined to see if Suzuki can carry over his plate approach to #2 before I'd run those guys out there in that slot.  I'd also be inclined to let Rendon see if he can figure it out.

Offline Squab

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #117: April 30, 2013, 01:42:28 PM »
Squab - perhaps you are right.  he is below average for P/PA for his career (3.66, avg is 3.81).  he almost always used to face about 62 - 65% strikes and this year he's faced 58%. He is drawing more walks, too. Something may be real here because he is drawing 2x the walks he drew last year when he batted 8th.   Most of his career, he's 2:1 K:BB ratio.  This year, it is 1.1:1.  Perhaps it is just he's very comfortable batting 8th in the NL. 
Still, I'm appalled at using Lombo and DE at #2.  They are both below .300 in OBP and do not work the count well.  I'd be inclined to see if Suzuki can carry over his plate approach to #2 before I'd run those guys out there in that slot.  I'd also be inclined to let Rendon see if he can figure it out.
Ideally I'd have Espinosa bat eighth, he would be less inclined to strike out. But then you've got
Span L
Werth R
Bryce L
Zim R
LaRoche L
Desmond R
Suzuki/Ramos R
Espinosa S
P
It messes up Davey's beloved L/R order, but I think it'd be better. Desmond hits a lot of doubles, it sucks to not have someone that can drive him in more consistently, or at least get on base to pass the buck and drive up pitch counts.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #118: April 30, 2013, 01:43:48 PM »
More like this -

Span L
Werth R
Bryce L
Zim R
LaRoche L
Desmond R
Suzuki/Ramos R
Espinosa K
P

Offline Squab

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #119: April 30, 2013, 02:24:04 PM »
Espinosa K
Just FYI, it was pointed out earlier that he's striking out less than Werth, Zim, and Desi, and of course LaRoche.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #120: May 05, 2013, 09:16:12 PM »
KLaw, behind the pay wall, writes about how the best hitter should bat 2d, not 3d. 
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/law_keith/id/9227029/joey-votto-bat-second-cincinnati-reds-mlb
Quote
The Los Angeles Angels have been batting Mike Trout, their best all-around hitter, second for most of this season. The Cincinnati Reds could learn a thing or two from that.

The idea of putting your best hitter second, rather than third, is still a novel one within baseball and has yet to gain widespread acceptance, even though the evidence in favor of such an arrangement is pretty strong. Using metrics such as batting runs, estimating the runs gained or lost through changing a lineup, shifting to an optimal lineup is only worth about 10-15 runs, or just over a win, in the course of a full season. That said, the marginal gain in getting your best hitter another handful of at-bats, including extra at-bats at the end of games, makes it worth trying to capture value that otherwise would be squandered.

The Reds are the best example this year of a team that is giving away offense by putting their worst hitter, Zack Cozart, ahead of their best hitter, Joey Votto, an example of archaic thinking that still persists within the game because that's how we've always done it


Applying this to the Nats, perhaps Harper and Desi should be flip-flopped.  Desi's contact heavy but below average OBP and high SLG suggests he might be better off in the 3 spot, behind Harper. If he comes up with either Span or Harper on, he's got a decent shot of driving one in, and if he comes up with no one on, you aren't really looking for a walk in that spot.  Harper sees enough pitches and is the best overall hitter. 

Maybe this all works out once Werth is back.  He's probably an acceptable #2 hitter.  Harper might also be in a funk due to his sore side.  Otherwise, maybe we should do like LAA.

Offline blue911

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #121: May 05, 2013, 09:23:26 PM »
KLaw, behind the pay wall, writes about how the best hitter should bat 2d, not 3d. 
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/law_keith/id/9227029/joey-votto-bat-second-cincinnati-reds-mlb
Applying this to the Nats, perhaps Harper and Desi should be flip-flopped.  Desi's contact heavy but below average OBP and high SLG suggests he might be better off in the 3 spot, behind Harper. If he comes up with either Span or Harper on, he's got a decent shot of driving one in, and if he comes up with no one on, you aren't really looking for a walk in that spot.  Harper sees enough pitches and is the best overall hitter. 

Maybe this all works out once Werth is back.  He's probably an acceptable #2 hitter.  Harper might also be in a funk due to his sore side.  Otherwise, maybe we should do like LAA.


isn't Trout getting fewer At Bats hitting second instead of leadoff?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #122: May 05, 2013, 09:57:41 PM »
Yes, by definition.  I guess the way it works with line up optimization is that if you hit one of the 3 best hitters you have (the one with the most OBP-heavy OPS) leadoff, #2 comes up with the best chance of having at least one guy on. 

So why not 2 hitters in front of your best hitter?  Even the best hitters make outs 2/3 of the time, so you'll be having him up with bases empty 2 outs most often. I guess bases empty, 1 out has a greater run expectancy than bases empty 2 outs.  I'll admit I have not read the original work on this.

Personally, I would think with Werth and Span ahead of #3, then the odds start to swing more in favor of a sliding the best hitter back to #3.  A couple of gusy you hope to have .360+ OBP probably changes the bases empty 2 outs likelihood.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #123: June 04, 2013, 03:06:17 PM »
Just gonna self-promote again. My third FanGraphs Community post is now up!

The Ten Highest BABIPs Since 1945
http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-ten-highest-babips-since-1945/

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Stats. Giggity!
« Reply #124: June 04, 2013, 04:51:42 PM »
I'll never forgive them for the one that got away on the White Whale Werth.