Author Topic: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)  (Read 13801 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 19473
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #500: December 09, 2011, 10:08:53 AM »


LaRoche's career average WAR is around 1.2, Harper (like every other hot prospect) hasn't done jack in MLB yet, Desmond and Werth will, at best, match last years WAR so unless Espinosa, Ramos, Strasburg, and Zimmerman can all improve by an average WAR of 2.5 I don't see this happening.


since when has a teams wins actually equalled the sum of their wars

Offline MarquisDeSade

  • Posts: 14955
  • I am Djour Djilios.
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #501: December 09, 2011, 10:10:35 AM »
since when has a teams wins actually equalled the sum of their wars

Never, you should know this is me just :stir: the sheet a bit.  The point is you'd still have to have significant performance improvement from four guys.

Offline Tyler Durden

  • Posts: 7970
  • Leprechaun
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #502: December 09, 2011, 10:33:10 AM »
Fangraphs has a great article about how Carlos Beltran could be a sweet bargain.

"The Nationals may really shift Jayson Werth to center if they cannot acquire a legitimate centerfielder. Manager Davey Johnson intends to give Bryce Harper a shot at earning the right field role in spring training, but he’ll presumably start the season in the minors. Roger Bernadina is a nice player with potential, but the Nationals are a sleeper wild card contender, and adding Beltran could change the complexion of that lineup."

I totally agree with this.  Morse-Werth-Beltran in the outfield would be among the better hitting groups in baseball.  When Harper is ready, trade LaRoche, shift Morse to 1B, and put Harper in LF.  Or just trade Beltran once Harper is ready.

Offline Bloo

  • Posts: 2175
  • Ok this is epic
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #503: December 09, 2011, 10:33:11 AM »
Rizzo advertised all these moves just so he could sit at the "cool table" with the rest of big market teams GMs.

Offline Tyler Durden

  • Posts: 7970
  • Leprechaun
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #504: December 09, 2011, 10:35:19 AM »


LaRoche's career average WAR is around 1.2, Harper (like every other hot prospect) hasn't done jack in MLB yet, Desmond and Werth will, at best, match last years WAR so unless Espinosa, Ramos, Strasburg, and Zimmerman can all improve by an average WAR of 2.5 I don't see this happening.

And what do with do with the Magic Glove at first base?

There is no way you actually believe this.

Offline MarquisDeSade

  • Posts: 14955
  • I am Djour Djilios.
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #505: December 09, 2011, 10:37:34 AM »
There is no way you actually believe this.

Never, you should know this is me just :stir: the sheet a bit.  The point is you'd still have to have significant performance improvement from four guys to have any form of improvement over 2011.

I do think they're going to trot LeGlove out to 1B until he sucks or his contract is over.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 44348
  • thanosdidnothingwrong
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #506: December 09, 2011, 11:05:07 AM »
I think some of you are forgetting how lights out our pitching staff was at the beginning of the year. We had, statistically speaking, a top 5 pitching staff. I don't expect that to be duplicated again. I honestly think.JZ will struggle a little bit. So will CMW and Detwiler.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 25282
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #507: December 09, 2011, 11:07:17 AM »
Well, from 2008 - 2010, LaRoche had 5.1 WAR, so figure he's capable of 1.7 when healthy.  If he isn't healthy, he does not play.  That'd be 1.9 WAR more than last year. 

Strasburg, in 92 major league innings, compiled 3.7 WAR.  It is not too hard to say he's a 5 - 6  WAR pitcher over 160 innings. Last year, he only put up 1.1 WAR.  Figure a 4 WAR gain from him, and that may be conservative.

You can hope that RZ's improvement will compensate for Morse's drop off.

Zimmermann, if you give project 195 innings in 2012 and the same level of pitching would be 4+ WAR, so add a half a win there.

So,, that's 6.5 WAR or so, before figuring out whether Werth has any bounce back and how Espinosa, Desmond or his replacement, and Ramos develop. 

Lots of mystery about the performance of the back 3 slots in the rotation; replacing the 3.5 WAR from Livo and Marquis out of Wang, Lannan, and the Det/Milone/Peacock is not a lock.  Also, some regression from Clippard and Storen is reasonable (2.1 WAR). 

It's nice to be arguing about how much over .500 this team can reasonably be predicted if it does nothing other than stay healthy.  It'd be better if we upgraded the obvious needs, but I don't have to take as many opiates to make this argument as I would have in the past.

Offline MarquisDeSade

  • Posts: 14955
  • I am Djour Djilios.
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #508: December 09, 2011, 11:10:50 AM »
JCA - you're falling into the WAR translates to team wins trap.  Unless you're also :stir: and :poke: us all as well.

EDIT: There's going to have to be improvements from a lot of guys from last year, obviously.  What's being forgotten is that you're also going to have to hope that this translates to wins over other teams that you play regularly that, on paper, have improved significantly.

Offline BerkeleyNat

  • Posts: 5025
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #509: December 09, 2011, 11:11:50 AM »
Please lock this thread up. Offseason freaked

 :lmao:

You're too much SF. Sometimes I think you just do this stuff for the LULZ, but then I realize you're dead serious. That makes it even better.


Offline MarquisDeSade

  • Posts: 14955
  • I am Djour Djilios.
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #510: December 09, 2011, 11:12:58 AM »
You're too much SF. Sometimes I think you just do this stuff for the LULZ, but then I realize you're dead serious. That makes it even better.

Just wait until you hear my SF tribute song!


Offline Lintyfresh85

  • Posts: 35047
  • Champs!
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #511: December 09, 2011, 11:15:35 AM »
Rays re-sign Matt More to a 5/14 deal with three club options that make it 8/37.

Fantastic deal for the Rays, as usual.

Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 12501
  • Troll So Hard University
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #512: December 09, 2011, 11:18:12 AM »
How do the Rays always pull off deals like that?

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 44348
  • thanosdidnothingwrong
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #513: December 09, 2011, 11:21:30 AM »
Rays re-sign Matt More to a 5/14 deal with three club options that make it 8/37.

Fantastic deal for the Rays, as usual.

Damn ... That is a good deal.

Bet you in three years, they're talking about trading him for salary relief

Offline Lintyfresh85

  • Posts: 35047
  • Champs!
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #514: December 09, 2011, 11:22:12 AM »
How do the Rays always pull off deals like that?

Hey Matt, you've pitched nine innings in the bigs... and you're going to make 280K for the next three years.... and, if you suck, you might not even get to see a raise in arbitration. How's 14 million sound? Good? How's 37 million sound? Even better? Ok... sign here!

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 19473
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #515: December 09, 2011, 11:22:29 AM »
How do the Rays always pull off deals like that?

because they are smart enough to do it when a player is so far from free agency that the smaller dollar value offsets the health and performance risk

Offline Lintyfresh85

  • Posts: 35047
  • Champs!
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #516: December 09, 2011, 11:23:02 AM »
Damn ... That is a good deal.

Bet you in three years, they're talking about trading him for salary relief

No they won't.

That's less than three million a year. The Rays have a tight budget... but three million is not going to be something they trade away.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 25282
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #517: December 09, 2011, 11:27:20 AM »
Quote
Rays re-sign Matt More to a 5/14 deal with three club options that make it 8/37.

Fantastic deal for the Rays, as usual.
Was someone around here saying Extennd Zimmermann last July?  I am amazed that not only the team has not done so, but the beat writers never even ask the question as to whether it is on the radar.  Really, you'd expect a cheap but sharp team to have done this. 

MDS - You had phrased the argument in terms of WAR when you mentioned LaRoche, so I was replying in your terms, minus your fake jive and a lot of z'es instead of s'es. 

Sure, we have to beat an Atlanta team that should get a bounce back from Heyward and improvement from a lot of otehr young guys too, a Miami team that seems better on paper with a good recovery by Johnson (much more questionable than Stras at this point) and probably a better infield regardless of whether HanRam is moved or traded, and a Philly team that has yet to fall off.  It's a heck of a division.  That said, there are weaker sisters to pick on when we go out of the division, and all the teams in ours have ifs, too.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 44348
  • thanosdidnothingwrong
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #518: December 09, 2011, 11:32:18 AM »
Darvish supposedly has asked for 20 million a year. US Dollars.

Hello Roy Oswalt. Just sign here for like 8 mil. We promise to trade you to a contender at the deadline.

Online imref

  • Posts: 26440
  • 1B: The New Hot Corner
Re: Official Winter Meetings Gameday Thread (Day 4)
« Reply #519: December 09, 2011, 11:34:00 AM »
Darvish supposedly has asked for 20 million a year. US Dollars.

Hello Roy Oswalt. Just sign here for like 8 mil. We promise to trade you to a contender at the deadline.

$20 million per year?  He's insane, even the Yankees won't pay that.