Author Topic: 2012 MLB Draft  (Read 20500 times)

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Offline zimm_da_kid

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2012 MLB Draft
« Topic Start: November 20, 2011, 07:50:36 PM »
Well it's never too early to start thinking about next years draft so here we go.  Without a high end pick like previous years the nats still have the chance to have a good draft.  This is a solid draft class but no where near as good as last years so the bats brass will really have to do their homework on who to pick at #16.  Some guys whom I like and believe will be available then are RHP Jake Barrett and OF David Dahl.  I can also see rizzo gambling on a high upside high school player who falls due to signabilty in a scenario kind of like Josh bell and the pirates last year.  Two high upside high school OFers that I think could fall because they are both football players also are Byron Buxton and Nick Williams.  If you haven't heard of them, look them up.  Buxton is a 5-tool player and Williams has drawn comparisons to Ken Griffey jr.  It is good to know that if we mess up this draft pick with a high risk high reward player and he bombs then it won't completely screw over our future like in some previous years.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #1: November 20, 2011, 08:25:00 PM »
Nice.

I meant to start this thread as soon as the final standings were out. I love the draft, and read some preliminary BA stuff toward the end of the season.

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #2: November 20, 2011, 09:16:13 PM »
I can also see rizzo gambling on a high upside high school player who falls due to signabilty in a scenario kind of like Josh bell and the pirates last year. 

With the rules changed so far as slotting goes, so will change the "signability" calculus.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #3: November 20, 2011, 09:34:52 PM »
With the rules changed so far as slotting goes, so will change the "signability" calculus.

This and international signing caps.  MLB is really trying to cut off good clubs from signing young talent.  This will just lead to free agents being payed more and that's gonna suck. 

Buxton has been compared to Justin Upton with more useable speed.  Buxton makes me drool.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #4: November 20, 2011, 09:38:09 PM »
I just checked and the way I understood it is that there will be a total amount that teams can spend on bonuses in a draft and if they go over then they have to pay a tax.  I wouldn't see that tax as a roadblock for Rizzo when it comes to drafting.  He will spend in the draft.  period.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #5: November 20, 2011, 09:42:27 PM »
Rizzo will just combine high bonus guys like Strasburg with cheap signability picks like Storen.

Online blue911

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #6: November 20, 2011, 09:50:19 PM »
Rizzo will just combine high bonus guys like Strasburg with cheap signability picks like Storen.

Teams will start offering MLB contracts to more players, so they can lower the bonuses without lowering the guaranteed money.

Offline Nats113437

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #7: November 20, 2011, 10:15:37 PM »
Teams will start offering MLB contracts to more players, so they can lower the bonuses without lowering the guaranteed money.


Brilliant thought.  I wonder if MLB caught that.  If not, good loophole by you. :)

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #8: November 20, 2011, 10:17:20 PM »
Teams will start offering MLB contracts to more players, so they can lower the bonuses without lowering the guaranteed money.


If this is what the end result is, then the union just took a bunch of jobs away from veterans in favor of guys who are not even members of the union yet. 

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #9: November 21, 2011, 09:03:45 PM »
Byron Buxton   :az:

Offline RD

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #10: November 21, 2011, 11:32:41 PM »
Buxton is a pipe dream. Kid is a stud, but there's no way he slides to us, even if he is very raw.

You always need to go BPA, regardless of level, but I really hope we go with some HSers early. We basically ignored the HS level this year, so there is going to be a decent gap in terms of talent waves in our system.

My top two guys that have barely a shot to fall are Trey Williams and Kevin Gausman. Gausman really doesn't have much of a chance, but being sophomore eligible, he could bring some signability concerns, so you never know. Trey Williams is considered by many a top ten guy, but BA has him at 13 among HSers, so there's at least some level of a chance. Kid can rake. 3b seems set for a long time, but he's a HSer who'll take a couple years, so you never know.

I also like Victor Roache from Georgia Southern. He has amazing power. There is some question about playing at Georgia Southern but he did extremely well in the Cape Cod league, both with wood and against better talent. He should be able to play OF at the next level, but 1b is always an option since we do have some pretty decent OFs in the system already.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #11: November 22, 2011, 01:19:04 PM »
Brilliant thought.  I wonder if MLB caught that.  If not, good loophole by you. :)

Loophole closed.

Quote
SI_JonHeyman

Drafted players may only sign minor-league deals now. #MLB, #cba

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #12: November 22, 2011, 02:58:05 PM »
I just checked and the way I understood it is that there will be a total amount that teams can spend on bonuses in a draft and if they go over then they have to pay a tax.  I wouldn't see that tax as a roadblock for Rizzo when it comes to drafting.  He will spend in the draft.  period.

Of course now we see that the tax is draconian.

Offline NFA Brian

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #13: November 22, 2011, 05:09:36 PM »
I will never understand Selig's obsession with holding down draft bonuses. In the grand scheme of things, the investment of $5M in a Josh Bell is a mere pittance in comparison to the money MLB teams piss away on utility players/relievers.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #14: November 22, 2011, 06:36:23 PM »
Screw selig

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #15: November 22, 2011, 07:00:34 PM »
How will the money for draft positions be calculated.  The total $ are based on draft position in the first few rounds, right?   Will the money be based on what Selig thinks a draft choice should make (low ball slots of the past few years) or will it be based on contracts that were signed?  Strasburg money or Storen money?  I know its a total, but what are the numbers going into the total?  Reality or Selig's fantasy?

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #16: November 22, 2011, 07:02:39 PM »
How will the money for draft positions be calculated.  The total $ are based on draft position in the first few rounds, right?   Will the money be based on what Selig thinks a draft choice should make (low ball slots of the past few years) or will it be based on contracts that were signed?  Strasburg money or Storen money?  I know its a total, but what are the numbers going into the total?  Reality or Selig's fantasy?

If the numbers are Selig's doing then screw him even more


Offline Bloo

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #17: November 22, 2011, 08:28:36 PM »
Selig is the anti-thesis of King Midas. Everything he touches turns into crap.

Offline saltydad

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #18: November 22, 2011, 08:41:54 PM »
In addition, if we really go overboard  in signing, there is an escalated tax PLUS loss of 1st round picks for the next 2 years. Serious stuff.

Online aspenbubba

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #19: November 23, 2011, 06:32:20 AM »
Though MLB is exempt from anti -trust laws by Congress I think the new CBA will come under scrutiny and someone will sue . This reminds me of the era right before Curt Flood sued for FA for players. I am not saying it will happen tomorrow but some "about to be drafted " players family will sue. Wasn't it Aaron Crows father threatening to sue at one point?

Offline NFA Brian

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #20: November 23, 2011, 07:27:27 AM »
I figure that Scott Boras is going to either (a) find a player to challenge/sue MLB over the new rules or (b) find a loophole in the CBA and exploit the hell out of it

(the answer is likely to be (c) ... both of a & b)

Online blue911

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #21: November 23, 2011, 07:42:22 AM »
Quote
However, the initial assumption that the new penalties would be based on something near the old slots doesn't appear to be correct. Last year, MLB valued the total worth of the 331 picks in the first 10 rounds at $133 million. Those slot numbers were less that MLB's guidelines from five years earlier, however, and were 44 percent lower than the $192 million teams paid to sign 303 of those players.

MLB won't get to unilaterally decide the worth of draft picks going forward
, though. It negotiated the values with the union, and they reportedly (and not surprisingly) will be much higher. Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman and CBS Sports' Danny Knobler tweeted that the aggregate pools would range from $4.5 million to $11.5 million, depending on how many picks a team had and where they fell. Yahoo's Jeff Passan tweeted that the total pool for all 30 teams would be around $200 million



http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2011/11/draft-cap-may-not-be-so-harsh/


Quote
If the overall bonus pool is approximately $200 million as has been reported, up from MLB's $133 million in slot recommendations in 2011, clubs still can be aggressive but not as much at the top end. I think the end result will be that the top picks in the draft still will sign, though the high-end bonuses will come down a little so teams don't blow most of their cap on one player. The top high school players still will sign, as seven-figure bonuses still will be alluring.



http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2011/11/analyzing-draft-changes-in-the-cba/



It doesn't appear to be as bad as I first thought, but it still is a bassackward way of controlling player costs.

Online The Chief

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #22: November 23, 2011, 09:42:13 AM »
So how is the pool allocated per team?  I'm not sure I understand what they're saying there.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #23: November 23, 2011, 12:50:33 PM »
The  key is figuring out what players are worth saying screw the system and drafting even if they have to pay the penalties.  If a stud falls in your lap during the draft then you don't let him get past you.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #24: November 23, 2011, 12:57:21 PM »
This is more a discussion for the CBA thread, but I don't think you accept that penalty (losing two first rounders) no matter who the player is. It's not like they can re-enter the draft and get a ton more money, they don't have leverage.