Author Topic: 2012 MLB Draft  (Read 20023 times)

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Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #75: November 29, 2011, 09:44:20 PM »
As much as we would love, teams still have to work with MLB, so they won't try it.

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #76: November 29, 2011, 10:22:41 PM »
Or we can go overslot and just say eff the system.  I would love to see a team do that.

So, pay a guy a couple mil over slot, then give up our 1st rounder next year as the penalty? 

No thanks. 

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #77: November 30, 2011, 06:35:42 AM »
So, pay a guy a couple mil over slot, then give up our 1st rounder next year as the penalty? 

No thanks. 

We'll do it if Boras tells us to.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #78: November 30, 2011, 09:04:48 AM »
Boras has said that is the way to game the system.  He may have a point.  For example, in Harper's draft year, the rest of the draft was relatively weak in comparison to this year.  With that sort of projection, you could see a team in Strasburg's year being willing to go over 15% and take the first and third round penalty the following year, especially if they were a middle of the pack team.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #79: November 30, 2011, 09:27:36 AM »
I could see high schoolers and first year eligible college players going for way over slot in later rounds- basically players with the leverage to return to school. I think there is something to be said for blowing it out every few years, with the caveat being that when you do, just go all out every round to mitigate/spread the penalty (i.e. if you're sacrificing the first round picks, you might as well get the most bang for your buck)

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #80: November 30, 2011, 09:32:25 AM »
I could see high schoolers and first year eligible college players going for way over slot in later rounds- basically players with the leverage to return to school. I think there is something to be said for blowing it out every few years, with the caveat being that when you do, just go all out every round to mitigate/spread the penalty (i.e. if you're sacrificing the first round picks, you might as well get the most bang for your buck)

Yup.  If you go over then it would be best to go completely all out to make it worthwhile.

Offline Mr Clean

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #81: November 30, 2011, 09:42:14 AM »
I am sure it has been posted here but I would reiterate that Boras and other agents need to sue over this.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #82: November 30, 2011, 02:42:48 PM »
I am sure it has been posted here but I would reiterate that Boras and other agents need to sue over this.

Suing takes alot of money and MLB is going to fight back.  It wouldn't be an easy case to win so it could drag on for years potentially.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #83: November 30, 2011, 02:46:21 PM »
13 teams will be eligible for the first lottery based on their market size and revenue: the Diamondbacks, Orioles, Indians, Royals, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, and Cardinals.

That is from MLB trade rumors.  How are the Cards eligible for this?  St Louis is arguably the best baseball town in america, so how can St. Louis be among the bottom in revenue and market size.  The Nats have a crappy TV deal where if we do good and our ratings go up then the O's get most of the profit.  If St. Louis qualified, then why didn't we?

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #84: November 30, 2011, 03:29:28 PM »
Suing takes alot of money and MLB is going to fight back.  It wouldn't be an easy case to win so it could drag on for years potentially.

Plus, who's going to benefit from spending that can only go in one direction - towards MLBPA members?

Agents will continue to get their share, so why go to court?

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #85: November 30, 2011, 07:48:26 PM »
I would love it if we could get our hands on Nick Williams, David Dahl, or Michael Wacha.  Nick Williams is really intriguing to me.  There is huge upside in that dude and would be a great addition.  I will admit that part of my interest in Wacha is so that we can start a cheer where we say "wacha wacha".  I just saw the muppetts movie and I have a huge mancrush on Fozzy.


Is anyone in that movie besides amy adams? I didn't notice.

Offline NFA Brian

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #86: December 01, 2011, 12:23:39 PM »
I could see a team assessing the relative strength of the next year's draft and making the move when that year is weak.

The Nats pick #16 in 2012. Let's assume the 2013 draft is viewed as a very weak draft. The Nats could go over slot in 2012 on a guy who slides (like Rick Porcello did). Combining the fact that the Nats are hoping to be better in 2012 (and thus a pick in the mid to late 20s) with a weak 2013 draft and the Nats could in essence use two 1st rders on a guy who is viewed as a top talent who,slides do to salary demands

Not saying it would be easy, or even likely ... it's something teams can do to game the system

Online blue911

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #87: December 01, 2011, 12:30:41 PM »
I could see a team assessing the relative strength of the next year's draft and making the move when that year is weak.

The Nats pick #16 in 2012. Let's assume the 2013 draft is viewed as a very weak draft. The Nats could go over slot in 2012 on a guy who slides (like Rick Porcello did). Combining the fact that the Nats are hoping to be better in 2012 (and thus a pick in the mid to late 20s) with a weak 2013 draft and the Nats could in essence use two 1st rders on a guy who is viewed as a top talent who,slides do to salary demands

Not saying it would be easy, or even likely ... it's something teams can do to game the system

Why not simply draft a inferior player (a player in the 100-200 range) with your first pick, then overslot.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #88: December 01, 2011, 12:59:03 PM »
The one part I don't understand about this new draft cap system is the tax each team has to pay if they happen to sign a player to overslot.  Maybe somebody that has read up on the new CBA more than me could explain it.  For instance, lets say purely for example that the Nats have a $1 million slot for their pick in the 1st round and they sign the guy to a $1.05 mil deal (or 5% over).  What kind of tax would they have to pay on that?  What if they went $1.15 mil (or 15% over)?

I'm not into the business side of things of the sport at all (more of a player development/talent evaluator type of guy thanks to my uncle), so I tend to get confused about the financial stuff.

Online blue911

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #89: December 01, 2011, 01:18:11 PM »
The one part I don't understand about this new draft cap system is the tax each team has to pay if they happen to sign a player to overslot.  Maybe somebody that has read up on the new CBA more than me could explain it.  For instance, lets say purely for example that the Nats have a $1 million slot for their pick in the 1st round and they sign the guy to a $1.05 mil deal (or 5% over).  What kind of tax would they have to pay on that?  What if they went $1.15 mil (or 15% over)?

I'm not into the business side of things of the sport at all (more of a player development/talent evaluator type of guy thanks to my uncle), so I tend to get confused about the financial stuff.

As far as I know, it hasn't been finalized. Most of what we hear is from drafts and rumor. The MLBPA site still has the current CBA (07-11). I'll post a link to the new CBA once it gets published for the great unwashed.


Offline JMUalumni

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #90: December 01, 2011, 01:30:55 PM »
As far as I know, it hasn't been finalized. Most of what we hear is from drafts and rumor. The MLBPA site still has the current CBA (07-11). I'll post a link to the new CBA once it gets published for the great unwashed.


Alright, thanks.


Offline tomterp

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #91: December 01, 2011, 01:32:12 PM »
As far as I know, it hasn't been finalized. Most of what we hear is from drafts and rumor. The MLBPA site still has the current CBA (07-11). I'll post a link to the new CBA once it gets published for the great unwashed.

Right, but it's a sure bet that the "tax" will only be on the overage, not the total spent, right?

If you spend $1.5m vs slot of $1.0m, the tax would on the $0.5 overage.

Offline Nats113437

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #92: December 01, 2011, 01:32:55 PM »
The one part I don't understand about this new draft cap system is the tax each team has to pay if they happen to sign a player to overslot.  Maybe somebody that has read up on the new CBA more than me could explain it.  For instance, lets say purely for example that the Nats have a $1 million slot for their pick in the 1st round and they sign the guy to a $1.05 mil deal (or 5% over).  What kind of tax would they have to pay on that?  What if they went $1.15 mil (or 15% over)?

I'm not into the business side of things of the sport at all (more of a player development/talent evaluator type of guy thanks to my uncle), so I tend to get confused about the financial stuff.

My understanding is that you will not be penalized for going over an individual slot.  There is going to be a total cap of the combined slot values of your picks in the first ten rounds.  Where a team gets penalized is when they go over that cap. 

Let's say you have $6 million total for all of your picks in the first ten rounds.  My understanding is you can use, for example, $5.5 million for the first round pick and $500 K for the rest.  As long as you do not go over the total cap. 

One other point, is you lose the slot value of any picks you do not sign.  So you could not spend all $6 million on your first rounder and then just not sign anyone else.

Also, after the tenth round, you can not spend for than $100K on a player or it counts toward your total pool ($6 million in the example above)

Offline Nats113437

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #93: December 01, 2011, 01:39:45 PM »
I could see a team assessing the relative strength of the next year's draft and making the move when that year is weak.

The Nats pick #16 in 2012. Let's assume the 2013 draft is viewed as a very weak draft. The Nats could go over slot in 2012 on a guy who slides (like Rick Porcello did). Combining the fact that the Nats are hoping to be better in 2012 (and thus a pick in the mid to late 20s) with a weak 2013 draft and the Nats could in essence use two 1st rders on a guy who is viewed as a top talent who,slides do to salary demands

Not saying it would be easy, or even likely ... it's something teams can do to game the system

Where I could see a team gaming the system would be in a scenario similar to the Nats draft last year.  The maximum penalty is two first round picks, plus the tax.  If I can get four players I value as high first rounders like they did, I might say "screw those two future picks, give me the top guys now."  In fact, if you are willing to pay that tax, why not go completely crazy and get as many guys as you can in a great draft and pass on the future picks.  It seems you would come out ahead, especially if you are likely going to be picking later anyway, as Brian said.

It will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out.  Will players just accept lower bonuses?  Will players still fall?  In theory, you could just say "to Hell with all my first rounders" and spend big on overslot guys that fall(if they still do).  You would just keep giving away first rounders in perpetuity, but if you are getting top players in later rounds, why not?

Offline Nats113437

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #94: December 01, 2011, 01:42:43 PM »
Right, but it's a sure bet that the "tax" will only be on the overage, not the total spent, right?

If you spend $1.5m vs slot of $1.0m, the tax would on the $0.5 overage.

The tax would not be on an individual slot as explained above.  The tax would be on your overage for the total spent on the top 10 rounds.  If your total for the top 10 rounds was $6 million, you would be taxed for whatever you spent over that. 

In your scenario, if you spend $1.5 on your first rounder, but go lower on your others, you do not have to pay tax.

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #95: December 01, 2011, 02:25:30 PM »
The tax would not be on an individual slot as explained above.  The tax would be on your overage for the total spent on the top 10 rounds.  If your total for the top 10 rounds was $6 million, you would be taxed for whatever you spent over that. 

In your scenario, if you spend $1.5 on your first rounder, but go lower on your others, you do not have to pay tax.


I'm pretty sure someone posted guidance to the contrary, do you have a source for this? 

EDIT:  It appears you are correct, here's a summary from Perotto in BP:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15572


Quote
The Rule 4 Draft, also known as the first-year player draft or amateur draft, will continue to be conducted in June, but the signing deadline will be moved to a date between July 12 and July 18 depending on the date of the All-Star Game.

Drafted players may only sign minor-league contracts.

Each club will be assigned an aggregate signing bonus pool prior to each draft. For the purpose of calculating the signing bonus pools, each pick in the first 10 rounds of the draft has been assigned a value. (These values will grow each year with the rate of growth of industry revenue). A club’s signing bonus pool equals the sum of the values of that Club’s selections in the first 10 rounds of the draft.

Players selected after the 10th round do not count against a club’s signing bonus pool if they receive bonuses up to $100,000. Any amounts paid in excess of $100,000 will count against the pool.

Clubs that exceed their signing bonus pools will be subject to penalties as follows:

Excess of Pool Penalty
  (tax on overage/draft picks)
 
• 0-5%
 75% tax on overage
 
• 5-10%
 75% tax on overage and loss of 1st round pick
 
• 10-15%
 100% tax on overage and loss of 1st and 2nd round picks
 
• 15%+
  100% tax on overage and loss of 1st round picks in next two drafts
 

Proceeds generated by the tax will be distributed to payee clubs under the revenue sharing plan that do not exceed their signing bonus pools. Draft picks that are forfeited by clubs will be awarded to other Clubs through a lottery in which a club’s odds of winning will be based on its prior season’s winning percentage and its prior season’s revenue. Only clubs that do not exceed their signing bonus pools are eligible for the lottery.

Competitive Balance Lottery

For the first time, clubs with the lowest revenues and in the smallest markets will have an opportunity to obtain additional draft picks through a lottery.

The 10 clubs with the lowest revenues and the 10 clubs in the smallest markets will be entered into a lottery for the six draft selections immediately following the completion of the first round of the draft. A club’s odds of winning the lottery will be based on its prior season’s winning percentage.

The eligible clubs that did not receive one of the six selections after the first round and all other payee clubs under the revenue sharing plan will be entered into a second lottery for the six picks immediately following the completion of the second round of the draft. A club’s odds of winning the lottery will be based on its prior season’s winning percentage.

Picks awarded in the Competitive Balance Lottery may be assigned by a club, subject to certain restrictions.


Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #96: December 01, 2011, 03:03:27 PM »
There will always be guys who fall.  Football recruits will go to college because teams know that they can't offer them as much money to lure them away from football.  There will also be your Josh Bells who fall because they just want a college education.  In other words, Rizzo will always have choices to make about falling talents.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #97: December 01, 2011, 03:07:51 PM »
There will always be guys who fall.  Football recruits will go to college because teams know that they can't offer them as much money to lure them away from football.  There will also be your Josh Bells who fall because they just want a college education.  In other words, Rizzo will always have choices to make about falling talents.

Unfortunately the one mechanism to convince a kid not to play football (money) is no longer available, so.the kid may fall and just go unsigned instead of falling and getting a big bonus

Offline saltydad

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #98: December 01, 2011, 03:10:41 PM »
A tad off topic here. After seeing the more recent data on concussions, TBIs, and subconcussive injuries, I really wondering about letting my son play football in HS.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012 MLB Draft
« Reply #99: December 01, 2011, 03:22:28 PM »
A tad off topic here. After seeing the more recent data on concussions, TBIs, and subconcussive injuries, I really wondering about letting my son play football in HS.

Glad I have a daughter (the again cheerleading is the.most.dangerous.sport)