Author Topic: 2011/12 off-season  (Read 97734 times)

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Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2450: December 10, 2011, 03:09:53 PM »
I think.Rizzo should be embarrassed that Buehrle was his.number 1 free agency target in the first place. Seriously? Not Wilson? Not Pujols? Not Fielder?

Do you really think he was going to be given the green light to do that when he should have known (and probably did) that three years wasn't going to do it for, as he said, his number on offseason FA.  What, given the spending of the ownership group and ticket sales and branding, would lead anyone to think they'd be in the hunt for a guy that's going to cost over $200m (Pujols) or two guys that going to get upwards (or above) of $100m?  Nothing. 

Offline Rasta

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2451: December 10, 2011, 03:46:53 PM »
Really? What if Buehrle owns us, but we win the wild card? Did Rizzo screw up then?

Buehrle got 14.5 a year from the fish. Wilson got 15.5 a year from the Angels. Who got fair market value and who got overpaid?

If Buehrle is better than our 3rd pitcher then probably yes.  We won't know if they overpaid until down the road. 

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2452: December 10, 2011, 03:57:33 PM »
what rotation is better:

a) strasburg, zimmermann, buehrle, wang, lannan

or

b) strasburg, zimmermann, lannan, wang, detwiler

Offline Rasta

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2453: December 10, 2011, 03:58:04 PM »
Backing out when 3/ $39MM was not acceptable was sensible.  Buehrle would have been nice but not necessary for this team.  Quite a few people here think the best reason to sign Buehrle would have been to make Lannan expendable.  Lannan is OK for the role of change of pace LHP between SS and JZ.  Not as good, but not a disaster.  I know Lannan would not have been the key to a deal for Upton or Bourjos, and I'm pretty sure he is not going to be the key to a deal for Span, either.

Blue says Buehrle is a low break down risk.  I can accept that he might be lower than most guys his age given the low, low stress he puts on his arm.  Maybe he's Boomer Wells without the gut.  I still hate going longer than 3 years for a pitcher in his 30s.  The Marlins had better hope he continues to give up contact that finds fielders.  For me, if I'm spending $15MM a year for 4 years, I want Ks, I want a lot of them, and I don't want just 2 or 3 Ks per 9 more than the walks my pitcher is allowing. 

He and Lannan are more similar than I thought over the past 4 seasons. Here are some graphs comparing the two. Lannan allows more BBs and has a higher WHIP but gives up fewer homers.  I'm OK with Lannan serving the innings eating lefty whose ERA is better than his peripherals role for a while.  I might even think Lannan is more likely to do what he's done the past 4 years for the next two or 3 than Buehrle is given their age and stage of their careers. 

And I'm not big John Lannan fan, either.


I posted this in November.  They aren't that similar when you go deeper into the stats....

WAR over the last 4 years

Beuhrle - 4.6/5.4/3.7/3.4
Lannan - 1.3/1.1/1.4/1.2

ERA Last 4 years

Beuhrle -  3.79/3.84/4.28/3.59
Lannan - 3.91/3.88/4.65/3.70

FIP Last 4 years

Beuhrle - 3.94/4.46/3.90/3.98
Lannan - 4.79/4.70/4.47/4.28

BB/9

Beuhrle - 2.14/1.90/2.10/1.97
Lannan - 3.56/2.97/3.08/3.70

So basically, while playing in the AL with the DH, Beuhrle has a much higher WAR, better ERA's, better fielding independent stats and walks guys at a much lower rate while striking out more guys. 




Offline Rasta

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2454: December 10, 2011, 04:02:48 PM »
I personally don't mind passing up on Buerhle if Rizzo is going to find another pitcher like Darvish or via a trade.  Going into the season assuming that CMW, Lannan, Detwiler, Pea**** & Milone can help us to compete is a big risk IMO.  Obviously Rizzo thought it was a risk thus him telling the whole world we need another top of the rotation starter. 

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2455: December 10, 2011, 04:16:16 PM »
I personally don't mind passing up on Buerhle if Rizzo is going to find another pitcher like Darvish or via a trade.  Going into the season assuming that CMW, Lannan, Detwiler, Pea**** & Milone can help us to compete is a big risk IMO.  Obviously Rizzo thought it was a risk thus him telling the whole world we need another top of the rotation starter. 

This is how I feel. I just hope that the failure to get Buerhle isn't a common thing this offseason. I hope they know their needs and go and and fix them!

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2456: December 10, 2011, 04:22:03 PM »
The problem I see with the Nats in FA is they treat it like the draft... As if they're the only team bidding on a player... So they try to strong arm them into taking a bad deal.

Sure. That was the problem with the Werth deal.  And Jason Marquis.  And that's why we ended up with LaRoche instead of Casey Kotchman.  OK, on the latter, our preferences were Dunn, Pena and Lee, but we had limits on how high we'd go. How'd that work out?  I guess the team that did the best on that was the Cubs, because they were smart enough to offer the single year, high AAV deal.

There is nothing wrong about saying there's a limit to how far you will go to pursue a player, even your preferred player.  The issue is what is the alternative.  I can see a reasonable person say that for price and performance, John Lannan can give you a close enough approximation of Mark Buehrle's performance over the past 4 years that we are going to not go beyond a certain number of years and a certain AAV. 

I have not heard anyone say there were multiple 4 year offers on the table for old man Buehrle.  I think there are a number of people who are surprised that he's getting $14.5MM a year.  That was above most people's estimates.  At some point, you back out of bidding.  I'm happy we did. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2457: December 10, 2011, 04:30:55 PM »
I posted this in November.  They aren't that similar when you go deeper into the stats....

WAR over the last 4 years

Beuhrle - 4.6/5.4/3.7/3.4
Lannan - 1.3/1.1/1.4/1.2

ERA Last 4 years

Beuhrle -  3.79/3.84/4.28/3.59
Lannan - 3.91/3.88/4.65/3.70

FIP Last 4 years

Beuhrle - 3.94/4.46/3.90/3.98
Lannan - 4.79/4.70/4.47/4.28

BB/9

Beuhrle - 2.14/1.90/2.10/1.97
Lannan - 3.56/2.97/3.08/3.70

So basically, while playing in the AL with the DH, Beuhrle has a much higher WAR, better ERA's, better fielding independent stats and walks guys at a much lower rate while striking out more guys. 





Yah, Rasta, I remember.   I said in my post Buehrle had a better walk rate.  fWAR is a FIP and innings based stat, and I don't think FIP does either Buehrle or Lannan justice.  They consistently outperform their FIP.  Groundball pitchers do that.   ERA is remarkably close.  Lannan's HR/9 is better over the past 4 years.  [edit - your original post was why I was surprised at how close they were once you back out the BB rate]

For fun, I have not even looked at their SIERAs, which is a different and probably better defense independent measure, or their ERA+, which is park adjusted.  I'll do that in the next post.  I'm guessing it is closer but Buehrle is better on SIERA and that ERA+ is a wash.  Also for fun, I'll pull Bill James projections for next year, too.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2458: December 10, 2011, 05:12:01 PM »
SIERA  Buehrle  Lannan
2008   4.13       4.44
2009   4.62       4.92
2010   4.72       4.63
2011   4.38       4.47

.30 of  run in '08 and '09, a wash in '10 and '11. 

xFIP isn't much of a different story. 

xFIP   B         L
08    3.98   4.24
09    4.37   4.64
10    4.49   4.36
11    4.14   4.24

xFIP is better than FIP if you are switching home parks.

ERA+   B       L
08     122    110
09     121    109
10     100      89
11     117    104

Consistently, 11 -13% difference relative to park adjusted average.  However, that suggests to me he did really well relative to other pitchers at the Cell.   I can't find ERA+ split by home and away, but this seems confirmed by looking at his tOPS+ for home and away splits on BR (3 of 4 years - not 2009).  He has been more effective at the Cell.  Don't know why, and don't know why this would be transferable to either Nats Park or Miami.

Bill James still likes Buehrle more than Lannan for ERA in 2012,  3.98 to 4.40.   His estimate looks close to FIP. 

BTW - in fairness, FIPs for Buehrle look closer to ERA than SIERAs, and a wash with xFIPs.

Offline Rasta

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2459: December 10, 2011, 05:51:06 PM »
Good stuff JCA.  I still much prefer Buehrle to Lannan.  As I mentioned though, as long as Rizzo finds another way to get a pitcher I don't mind passing on Buehrle.  I just have serious reservations that we'll get another one and I sure don't trust our options 3-7 to take us to anything but mediocrity. 

JMO

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2460: December 10, 2011, 06:58:29 PM »
If I had to pick a pitcher for a year or a game, and I did not consider the development chain and cost and the contract terms, Buehrle is the man.  I just think it is important for their stage of development for Detwiler or Pea**** or Milone to fill the 5th starter role, and don't want them squeezed off the roster by Lannan and Wang.  I still have some patience.  Call me the anti-Hammonds.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2461: December 10, 2011, 07:35:05 PM »
If I had to pick a pitcher for a year or a game, and I did not consider the development chain and cost and the contract terms, Buehrle is the man.  I just think it is important for their stage of development for Detwiler or Pea**** or Milone to fill the 5th starter role, and don't want them squeezed off the roster by Lannan and Wang.  I still have some patience.  Call me the anti-Hammonds.

i like detwiler/pea**** and am cool with them in the rotation.  but i would rather have a proven winner like buehrle who can take some pressure off the other kids.  it shouldn't be that hard to comprehend. 

and to say i'm not patient, i understand this organization needed to build up the farm system but that doesn't mean our crappy owners didn't have to spend on the major league product. 

Offline Nathan

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2462: December 10, 2011, 07:47:43 PM »
Ryan Braun news split off to a new topic and moved to the Out of Town Scoreboard.

http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=25339.0

Online Slateman

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2463: December 10, 2011, 08:18:25 PM »
If I had to pick a pitcher for a year or a game, and I did not consider the development chain and cost and the contract terms, Buehrle is the man.  I just think it is important for their stage of development for Detwiler or Pea**** or Milone to fill the 5th starter role, and don't want them squeezed off the roster by Lannan and Wang.  I still have some patience.  Call me the anti-Hammonds.

I'm right with you on that. Detwiler has worked and improved himself to where he deserves a shot to be an everyday starter. If we don't start him now, we never will. I wanna see what we got. We finally have some major league ready  talent available. Let's use it.

What's the worst that happens? We don't make the playoffs again?

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2464: December 11, 2011, 09:53:41 AM »
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/in-mlb-free-agency-teams-face-the-albert-pujols-dilemma-how-much-is-too-much/2011/12/09/gIQAxANTlO_story_1.html

Boz says to offer Oswalt the same contract we offered Buehrle.

I could live with that - 3 yrs/13 mil per season.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2465: December 11, 2011, 10:08:40 AM »
http://www.masnsports.com/nationals_buzz/2011/12/gorzelanny-slaten-flores-sweating-out-mondays-non-tender-deadline.html

Nice article on our arbitration cases - MASN lists Gorzelanny, Slaten, and Flores as the only question marks.  To me, Flores is a no-brainer that we should tender.

Slaten is also a no-brainer non-tender. 

Gorzelanny is a tough case.  He probably has some trade value but isn't worth a $3 mil yearly salary.  I think they may end up non-tendering him as well.  That will only be a good decision if they spend that money elsewhere (Oswalt or Edwin Jackson?).

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2466: December 11, 2011, 10:08:48 AM »
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/in-mlb-free-agency-teams-face-the-albert-pujols-dilemma-how-much-is-too-much/2011/12/09/gIQAxANTlO_story_1.html

Boz says to offer Oswalt the same contract we offered Buehrle.

I could live with that - 3 yrs/13 mil per season.


I wouldn't go higher then a 2 year deal but I would really prefer only 1

Offline Squab

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2467: December 11, 2011, 11:23:42 AM »
I wouldn't go higher then a 2 year deal but I would really prefer only 1
That would be the same mistake as Buerhle. Give him the contract he wants (3 years) if he's healthy, which he appears to be. His fastball velocity was back up in September and now he'll have the offseason to rest.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2468: December 11, 2011, 11:33:13 AM »
I would want to get a feel for what Oswalt prefers at this stage of his career.  Does he want to go year to year, something short, or does he want the larger guarantee that comes with the extra years.  I would go 1 year, $15 - 16 MM if he prefers a shorter deal, or 2 years, $28 - 30MM. 

I might then turn to Minnesota and offer a Detwiler (who would be Minnesota's hardest throwing lefty) along with Desmond or Lombo, and Bernie for Span.  Essentially seeing if the deal they wanted can be done with Detwiler rather than Storen.  I'd even put in Josh Wilkie if he's still under team control.  Maybe this is not realistic.

Offline Squab

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2469: December 11, 2011, 11:50:00 AM »
Oswalt wants a three year deal, and he's going to have a lot of suitors, if they don't go three years they won't get him, like burleyman

Online Mr Clean

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2470: December 11, 2011, 12:01:22 PM »
Do the Nats want or need Carlos Quentin? Heyman tweets that the Sox are shopping him.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2471: December 11, 2011, 12:14:39 PM »
A few interesting points in today's notes column from Cafardo:
Quote
Updates on nine

1. J.D. Drew, OF, free agent - He will have options if he’s willing to play for about $5 million on a one-year deal. For a National League team, he could be a good fourth outfielder that provides a solid bat off the bench. An American League team could use him as a DH or extra outfielder. Tampa Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco, Texas, and St. Louis are all possible fits. “I know he had a wasted year,’’ said an NL GM, “but he can still hit, he can still defend, and for a National League team, he’d be a heck of a bat off the bench. If he wants that role. He could easily be a starter somewhere. He’s not that old, and sometimes that fresh start energizes a player.’’
...
4. Cody Ross, OF, free agent - The 2010 NLCS MVP is looking for a three-year deal at about $6 million per season, according to a major league source. He is precisely the high-energy player the Red Sox are looking for - a righthanded bat with power who obviously loves to play. However, as our own Bill Chuck points out, “Ross has seen his OPS drop from .804 in 2008, to .790 in 2009, to .735 in 2010, to .730 in 2011.’’
...
6. Dmitri Young, 1B-DH, free agent - He was a very good hitter before his career ended in 2008 when his management of weight and diabetes issues spiraled out of control. He was at the winter meetings looking thin and in shape, and wants to make a comeback at age 38. “I was very impressed with the way he looked,’’ said Manny Acta, Young’s former manager in Washington. “I heard that he was the same weight when he was playing A ball. It was pretty impressive. He’s a guy that’s been able to put the fat part of the bat on the ball. So if he wants to come back, I hope he gets an opportunity.’’

7. Roy Oswalt, RHP, free agent - There is decent interest in the former Astros and Phillies righty. Arizona, Texas, the Yankees, Baltimore, and Miami are possibilities. He would be an ideal fourth starter for the Red Sox if they could get him on a two-year deal. Once leery of big markets, Oswalt could now be open to another Northeast city.
...
9. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, free agent - The Yankees have made a one-year, $12 million offer, and the Red Sox also seem interested, as they were at last season’s trading deadline, when Kuroda informed the Dodgers that he did not want to leave Los Angeles. He appears more open to it now. The Sox have the incentive of Valentine, who is perceived as the Japanese players’ friend.


I know some people like Blue think the guy is an absolute passionless jerk (I don't think he is a jerk), but JD Drew would be a terrific corner OF placeholder for Harper.  His D is still solid, and he has good on base skills.  He could easily slide in front of Zimmerman in the batting order on days he plays.  At $5MM, that might be a good solution, especially if we went after Ross.  Ross had an off year, but he still has had around a .340 OBP v. LHP the past 4 years, and his average was .280+ for 2008 - 10 vs. lefties.  Stick the two of them in right until Harper is ready, or run them out in left if LaRoche is moved before Harper is up.  I don't like the year commitment Ross is looking for, but maybe you offer him a bit more AAV for a shorter contract. 

Also, it is interesting that Kuroda might be interested in playing on the east coast.  He might be an ideal guy to go high AAV, short years.   As for Oswalt, this is another indication that $38 over 3 may be less of what he is looking for than shorter, more AAV.  Finally, nice note on Dmitri

Online Mr Clean

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2472: December 11, 2011, 12:31:40 PM »
JD Drew would be a good pickup.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2473: December 11, 2011, 12:53:19 PM »
I agree about JD Drew.  I prefer Beltran, but Drew would be cheaper and could be jsut as good.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: 2011/12 off-season
« Reply #2474: December 11, 2011, 01:11:57 PM »
haha JCA loves his red sox