SIERA Buehrle Lannan
2008 4.13 4.44
2009 4.62 4.92
2010 4.72 4.63
2011 4.38 4.47
.30 of run in '08 and '09, a wash in '10 and '11.
xFIP isn't much of a different story.
xFIP B L
08 3.98 4.24
09 4.37 4.64
10 4.49 4.36
11 4.14 4.24
xFIP is better than FIP if you are switching home parks.
ERA+ B L
08 122 110
09 121 109
10 100 89
11 117 104
Consistently, 11 -13% difference relative to park adjusted average. However, that suggests to me he did really well relative to other pitchers at the Cell. I can't find ERA+ split by home and away, but this seems confirmed by looking at his tOPS+ for home and away splits on BR (3 of 4 years - not 2009). He has been more effective at the Cell. Don't know why, and don't know why this would be transferable to either Nats Park or Miami.
Bill James still likes Buehrle more than Lannan for ERA in 2012, 3.98 to 4.40. His estimate looks close to FIP.
BTW - in fairness, FIPs for Buehrle look closer to ERA than SIERAs, and a wash with xFIPs.
