It's interesting that they are just getting around to this analysis when some of us had done the same thing a long time ago. He's right about the value that a guy like Werth has in the OF and on the basepaths, but in terms of productivity at the plate, he still seems very incredulous. There's really nothing new. Morse has always been able to hit. The issue was that he couldn't find a home in the field - which is often as much a result of the way a player is handled organizationally as it is the player himself.
It's interesting to look at his extra base hits in the minors. I think a lot of us had said that always showed the potential for power even if his MLB homer total as a 22 year old SS was a little lower than a corner player should have. Here are his age, ABs, XBH, HR, and level, starting with his first full season at age 20:
20 (2002) - 417 ABs, 36 XBH, 2 HR (SAL A-)
21 (2003) - 432 ABs, 42 XBH, 10 HR (CAR A+)
22 (2004) - 366 ABs, 42 XBH, 17 HR (SOU, TEX AA)
23 (2005) - 412 ABs, 34 XBH, 7 HR (PCL AAA / SEA MLB)
24 (2006) - 249 ABs, 26 XBH, 5 HR (PCL AAA / SEA MLB)
25 (2007) - 291 ABs, 32 XBH, 6 HR (PCL only)*
26 (2008) - injury
27 (2009) - 425 ABs, 45 XBH, 16 HR (PCL, INT AAA)**
* also 18 ABs at Seattle with 2 doubles. Omitting rehab stint in rookie league
** 52 ABs in
with 6 XBH, of which 3 were HRs.
If it weren't for 2004, this would look pretty much like a steady improvement in power as he aged and remained healthy. A trend from a little less than 1 XBH for every 10 ABs to slightly more than 1 XBH, with a gradual increase in the HR rate. He's also changed towards more of a fly ball hitter, which helps his HR total. Even this year's numbers (47 XBH in 403 ABs) are not so out of line with what he has done in the past.
