2012 free agency

[blue911]

Other than the fact they are derived from explained methods and can be duplicated from the BIS data, I can see how you'd say it is a mindfact like an SF assertion.

Chance Gardner and his ilk inspire zero confidence

[MarquisDeSade]

Chance Gardner and his ilk inspire zero confidence

I guess I forgot my [sportsfan] [/sportsfan] tags....

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The only free agent that definitely makes sense now and for the future is Jose Reyes, as far as Im concerned.

At what price point would CJ Wilson or Edwin Jackson make sense to you?  Same for Coco Crisp?   

[The Chief]

yes, but Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns, and Ryan Wagner aren't producing for another major league team!

I don't even know what we're talking about, I just figured it had something to do with Rizzo's competency, so I jumped in with a zinger.

Are people really still pining after Willingham?  I liked the guy but he's gone and he's not coming back, nor do we need him to.  Not sure why a bunch of numbers need to be trotted out to "prove" that to anyone.

[HalfSmokes]

Other than the fact they are derived from explained methods and can be duplicated from the BIS data, I can see how you'd say it is a mindfact like an SF assertion.

Here's something I've always wondered about war- if you add all the WAR on a team for one season together, will that number give you an accurate reflection of a team's record vs. what ever number of wins 0 war is supposed to be?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Here's something I've always wondered about war- if you add all the WAR on a team for one season together, will that number give you an accurate reflection of a team's record vs. what ever number of wins 0 war is supposed to be?

there can be some big deviations, like Cincy this year.  One thing to think about with just summing the WAR is that it factors out some of the stringing effects and I also believe it factors out leverage.  With a team, one player's play may affect another.  Is Curtis Granderson's UZR diminished by the incredible range of Brett Gardner?  Does the fact that Teixeira and Cano come up with men on make their hits lead to more runs than Ryan Zimmerman?  WAR only represents individual talent.  The sum of the whole may be different than the sum of the parts.  

[MarquisDeSade]

WAR only represents individual talent.  The sum of the whole may be different than the sum of the parts. 

Serious question - does WAR take RBIs into consideration?  I assume it does but I think you can see why I'd ask.  Also, what would be interesting is to see what effect a particular players has in tiring a pitcher out.  Vague I know but it's something I thought out when I was looking at Dan Uggla's May and July plate appearance data the other day.

[HalfSmokes]

there can be some big deviations, like Cincy this year.  One thing to think about with just summing the WAR is that it factors out some of the stringing effects and I also believe it factors out leverage.  With a team, one player's play may affect another.  Is Curtis Granderson's UZR diminished by the incredible range of Brett Gardner?  Does the fact that Teixeira and Cano come up with men on make their hits lead to more runs than Ryan Zimmerman?  WAR only represents individual talent.  The sum of the whole may be different than the sum of the parts. 

to me then, given the title sounds very objective, the stat is 'mindfacty'- if replacing a 1 war player with a 3 war player doesn't mean 2 more wins then the stat isn't measuring what it's title claim

[Evolution33]

Serious question - does WAR take RBIs into consideration?  I assume it does but I think you can see why I'd ask.  Also, what would be interesting is to see what effect a particular players has in tiring a pitcher out.  Vague I know but it's something I thought out when I was looking at Dan Uggla's May and July plate appearance data the other day.

I do not think WAR accounts for RBI. I believe WAR uses stats that treat every situation the same and that a stat like WPA would reflect more on the situations a batter faced than how well they did overall.

[MarquisDeSade]

I do not think WAR accounts for RBI. I believe WAR uses stats that treat every situation the same and that a stat like WPA would reflect more on the situations a batter faced than how well they did overall.

Thanks, so basically it treats every Plate Appearance as an independent event.  If that's the case it means what I'd like to wouldn't be a good comparison metric.  I'm more curious how what someone does during a Plate Appearance effects the outcome of the batters after him and the game in general.  Possible reinvention of the wheel?  Sure.  Possible satisfaction of my curiousity?  Definitely.

[Evolution33]

Thanks, so basically it treats every Plate Appearance as an independent event.  If that's the case it means what I'd like to wouldn't be a good comparison metric.  I'm more curious how what someone does during a Plate Appearance effects the outcome of the batters after him and the game in general.  Possible reinvention of the wheel?  Sure.  Possible satisfaction of my curiousity?  Definitely.

WPA tells you how much a player affects the outcome of a game. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/wpa/

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

ANCOVA it up, bro!

Thanks, so basically it treats every Plate Appearance as an independent event.  If that's the case it means what I'd like to wouldn't be a good comparison metric.  I'm more curious how what someone does during a Plate Appearance effects the outcome of the batters after him and the game in general.  Possible reinvention of the wheel?  Sure.  Possible satisfaction of my curiousity?  Definitely.

[MarquisDeSade]

WPA tells you how much a player affects the outcome of a game. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/wpa/

Interesting.  I think I'm going to do something a little different though.   

[MarquisDeSade]

ANCOVA it up, bro!

Why stop there?  I'm sure I can pull out my friend the ol' Tobit model too while I'm at it!  Chi-square tables activate!!!!!!!

[Terpfan76]

Yea it is. Or how else do you explain Desmond looking good and not having throwing errors. Laroche was picking like a beast. Its why they were so reluctant to shut him down.

Oh and healthy Laroche puts up numbers similar to Josh Willingham. So Morse in LF and Laroche is our best option for next season.

I think you're giving LaRoche too much credit right there. Desi seemed to calm down a lot after the birth of his child. I do agree that LaRoche's defensive skills as well as the "idea" of LaRoche being there added to the confidence level of the infielders. At the same time, I didn't see a sudden drop in the infield defense when LaRoche went down. Desi has had some defensive hiccups and they usually come in clusters, but he hasn't fallen apart defensively. I'm not suggesting that LaRoche isn't a superior fielder, I just don't think he's some kind of magic elixir. If Morse can move back to LF with out a drop in his plate production, then great! Morse in LF and LaRoche at 1b, but if his offense falters, I'd rather have his bat first. (that's considering he keeps his offensive numbers up)

I think most are aware that I don't follow the advanced metrics like others do. That's not because I don't believe in them or agree with them, I just don't "get" them I guess. If the metrics prove my view wrong, then so be it. My views only pass my eye test, not some sort of fancy algorithm.

[PatsNats28]

you'll have to e-mail fangraphs and ask them to break it out- they just have 2011 2 teams

I can assist you with that good sir.

0.1 WAR as a Nat. wOBA of .292.

[PatsNats28]

to me then, given the title sounds very objective, the stat is 'mindfacty'- if replacing a 1 war player with a 3 war player doesn't mean 2 more wins then the stat isn't measuring what it's title claim

I can check this out for you, give me ~30 minutes.

[PatsNats28]

Okay, I'm extremely inexperienced with Google Docs, but here we go. I realized that I quoted the wrong post there, I meant to quote the one above where you were asking about team wins vs. WAR.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Au7pNbzpQ42XdFVpbGR3MVlVaXZxdmw3ZkpHcndZREE#gid=1

Tell me if anything doesn't work/I've done it the wrong way, etc.

[PatsNats28]

Data would seem to suggest that teams underperform their WARs.

[GNatsNoMore]

You get the feeling that as soon as Harper is ready for LF they will be looking to unload LaRoche and move Morse back to 1B. So both of those positions are set IMO.

What they need is a leadoff CF. And starting pitching.

This!

i worry that signing fielder to a big contract will be a disaster as he grows to 300lbs in a couple of years and becomes a huge liability at 1st.  I'd spend the money on CJ Wilson first and foremost, we need 3 top starters to compete with Philly.

And this!

[welch]

Quote from: Baseball is Life on Today at 10:37:38 AM
You get the feeling that as soon as Harper is ready for LF they will be looking to unload LaRoche and move Morse back to 1B. So both of those positions are set IMO.

What they need is a leadoff CF. And starting pitching.
This!

Quote from: imref on Today at 10:54:03 AM
i worry that signing fielder to a big contract will be a disaster as he grows to 300lbs in a couple of years and becomes a huge liability at 1st.  I'd spend the money on CJ Wilson first and foremost, we need 3 top starters to compete with Philly.
And this!

**********************

Sounds like Harper will play 1/2 at Harrisburg, then 1/2 at Syracuse. Arrive in DC in September.

Reasoning: he hasn't mastered AA, though he has flashes. Must master both levels before he's ready. Half-year each should do it.

That leaves most of the season with LaR at 1B and Morse in LF.

Conclusion:

- need a CF who hits something like Granderson, or
- Some combination of Espinosa/Desmond/Lombo have to improve to hit like Cano and Jeter.

I'm searching, but I don't see the relief column. Probably better pitching in 2012 and slightly better hitting, but still an offense that gets throttled by good pitchers.

[houston-nat]

Are people really still pining after Willingham?  I liked the guy but he's gone and he's not coming back, nor do we need him to.  Not sure why a bunch of numbers need to be trotted out to "prove" that to anyone.

I think I saw a thread where PC suggested replacing the Nix/Gomes "mess" with Willingham in the offseason.

[HalfSmokes]

I'm searching, but I don't see the relief column. Probably better pitching in 2012 and slightly better hitting, but still an offense that gets throttled by good pitchers.

What is Rendon's ETA September call up in 2013 if things go well, maybe earlier- to me, realistically, he and Harper are the relief- they aren't paying prince Pinole or Reyes and trading for a guy like Upton won't transform the offense

[The Chief]

I think I saw a thread where PC suggested replacing the Nix/Gomes "mess" with Willingham in the offseason.

PC just doesn't like anything with "nix" in the name.  Josh Willingham rhymes with Microsoft Sam.

[Nathan]

PC just doesn't like anything with "nix" in the name.  Josh Willingham rhymes with Microsoft Sam.

You are such a freaking NERD!!!