Author Topic: John Lannan is a better man than I'll ever be  (Read 11609 times)

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Offline The Chief

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That's a popular sentiment here, and for awhile I agreed with you guys.  But the sabr community has done plenty of work try to figure out whether Lannan is doing anything remarkable that helps keep his ERA below his traditional peripherals.  They don't hate him, they're curious about him because, like the other guys I mentioned above, studying him may produce new insights into other ways pitchers have of controlling their ERAs.  But... Lannan doesn't really have anything special going for him.  He just doesn't.  The more you analyze him, the more his results scream "luck."  And indeed, he regressed significantly last year, and there are plenty of starts left this year in which he might regress.  It's in our nature as fans to try to tell ourselves that a guy who's having a great year despite warning signs that it's being done with smoke and mirrors has something special, something great that will help him defy his numbers.  People did it with Ubaldo last year, too, and we did it with Pudge for awhile.  Ultimately, the best way Lannan can prove the stats guys wrong is to continue to have season that are much better than his peripherals suggest.  But the overwhelming balance of evidence is on their side.

I'm sorry but I just can't accept that 95 games over 3.5 seasons is "lucky" but 14 games over half a season condemns him.  That absolutely screams "bias" in big read letters to me.