you're crazy if you think the phillies won't contend this year.
On paper I expect more wins from them in 2013 than in 2012, but I don't see them overtaking the Nats or Braves for top honors in the division. I don't see the Nats winning 98 again though. I'd say Nats get 93, Braves 90 and Phillies grab 86-88. Close race until the end. Phils still have a very strong top of the rotation. Offense will be something they need to find all year long, also relief pitching is very unproven.
Nats added a true CF leadoff guy and a better than Jackson pitcher to fill the number 4/5 slot. They remain largely unchanged. The Braves traded a true CF leadoff guy for a power CF guy and lost Chipper. They have to fill leadoff and LF somehow and generally are saying it's mutually exclusive. I expect them to fill it in house with Jose Constanza. Also they have more question marks with the rotation as of opening day due to the lack of Beachy and the loss of Hanson. Teheran/Delgado need to step up and neither has shown they are capable yet.
All in all, I think the Nats are best set to win it again but never count out the Braves or Phillies.