Author Topic: John Lannan is a better man than I'll ever be  (Read 9731 times)

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Offline LostYudite

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #200: September 13, 2012, 12:36:26 PM »
What would be so wrong with offering him arb?

Because then you're paying him either $6m to be a AAA legend or giving up on EJ and Greinke and being ok with Lannan as your #5, which means you are one injury away from a Gorzo/Maya/Duke replacement level mess.

The team's whole long-term success strategy is built on dominant starting pitching.  Not "good starting pitching," not "generally better than yours starting pitching." Dominant pitching.  I like Lannan and love that he makes SABR nerds mad, but he is what he is - a league-average lefty at best.  Good for a few starts now at the end of the season, but I'd much rather have EJ as the #5 than Lannan.  I'd happily pay EJ 3/40 and let the Meyer, Purke, etc. sort itself out in 2014.

No knock against Lannan - he's ballsy, but he's a high-wire act every time he goes out there.  When it's working he's great, but the second he loses one ounce of control, he's replacement level.

Offline lastobjective

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #201: September 13, 2012, 01:09:35 PM »


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #202: September 13, 2012, 01:31:27 PM »
I don't disagree that Jackson and Grienke are better than Lannan.  I just am hesitant to go 5+ years and $18MM AAV for Greinke that I think he may command as a free agent, plus the loss of a 1st round pick, and I wonder about whether Jackson is a good signing at 3 years and $40MM that I think he's likely to get. 

As Lannan is in his last year of team control, I'm not sure when he'd have to be offered arb to keep him.  I think it would be after our exclusive rights to Jackson expire.  I would first see if I can sign Jackson to more team-friendly terms, but if I can't, I might be able to live with Lannan as an MLB average kind of innings eater at the back of the rotation for a year.  The fellow I might not bring back would Gorzellany, who may be in the $2.5 MM - 3 MM range.  I would look to Meyer, Purke, Rosenbaum, whoever in 2014, not 2016, which is when a slot would be open if we brought back Jackson at 3/$40MM.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #203: September 13, 2012, 01:43:05 PM »
strasburg - gio - greinke - JZ - lannan/detwiler would be sick.  but i like jackson too. 

and besides they aren't going to add a starter if they didn't with strasburg being shut down. 

oh not to mention a top tier starter like greinke will cost money and ... well, you know.

Offline JdoubleU

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #204: September 13, 2012, 02:27:38 PM »
He's a quality back end starter. The Nats have one arm too many, which is a shame since he probably won't make the postseasn roster. Then again, he'll get contenders the rest of the season, so he may just yet earn a spot.

Offline mimontero88

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #205: September 13, 2012, 02:39:29 PM »
THE LANNIMAL!!!!!

Offline LostYudite

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #206: September 13, 2012, 02:44:06 PM »
I might be able to live with Lannan as an MLB average kind of innings eater at the back of the rotation for a year.  [...] I would look to Meyer, Purke, Rosenbaum, whoever in 2014, not 2016, which is when a slot would be open if we brought back Jackson at 3/$40MM.

All based on a no-injury assumption, though, right?  That's the part that worries me - maybe we have found four or five of the most durable high-performing power arms that there are, but two have already had TJ, so I'm going to worry every year about the health, and I like knowing Lannan (or somebody like him) was in AAA if one went down.  What I meant by "sort itself out in 2014" is that Meyer, Purke and Rosenbaum are all possible in 2014, but I'd much rather have one of them force their way in by being better than one of our current 5 rather than have to pull one in because we had an injury.  Much rather have a young power arm at AAA for an extra year because the rotation is just that good than end up one short because we didn't build in injury insurance.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #207: September 13, 2012, 03:29:57 PM »
I'm on board with what you are saying, and my insight was somewhat based on the clarity that Jack Daniels provides. He's out of options so I don't think another year in the minors is on the table.  At $6MM, he probably can't be kept in the swing man role that Gorzo had, and I'm not sure he's better suited for it than Gorzo.  My guess is he's at least allowed to explore opportunities elsewhere, and that someone, maybe a Cleveland, maybe a Cubs, gives him a clearer path to being a rotation regular and he'll take it.  The only way he is back here I think is if the bidding war on Jackson and Grienke gets too costly very quickly.

Offline welch

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #208: September 14, 2012, 07:20:39 AM »
In a must-win game, I might just prefer Lannan over Detwiler, and maybe even Jackson.

Offline tomterp

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #209: September 14, 2012, 07:56:09 AM »
Having given this thread a few days on its own, I'm thinking it's time to merge it into the "John Lannan is a better man than me" thread.

Does anyone make strenuous objection?

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #210: September 14, 2012, 07:56:59 AM »
Yes, please. There's too many threads as is. Don't need two on Lannan.

Offline blue911

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #211: September 14, 2012, 09:01:34 AM »
Having given this thread a few days on its own, I'm thinking it's time to merge it into the "John Lannan is a better man than me" thread.

Does anyone make strenuous objection?

I prefer if you split this into two or three threads. Can't have enough threads about the same topic. I hate beer.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #212: September 14, 2012, 09:27:11 AM »
I enjoy lots of intervention by mods.  In fact, I'm going to make a subtle edit to Blue's last post. See if you can spot something Blue would not have written.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #213: September 14, 2012, 09:38:10 AM »
Yes, please. There's too many threads as is. Don't need two on Lannan.

Lannan and his 2.41 ERA deserve its own multiple threads. Strasburg gets them, but Lannan can't despite actually helping the team for the playoffs right now?

Offline loshjott

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #214: September 14, 2012, 09:50:23 AM »
He's a quality back end starter. The Nats have one arm too many, which is a shame since he probably won't make the postseasn roster. Then again, he'll get contenders the rest of the season, so he may just yet earn a spot.

I think he'll make the post-season roster. He'll be a long man out of the pen and spot starter if games get bunched up due to rainout(s) and a 5th starter is needed. Detwiler was the 5th starter until last week and he surely would have made the post-season roster in that role if Stras was still pitching.

Offline tomterp

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Re: UNLEASH THE LANNIMAL~!
« Reply #215: September 14, 2012, 01:13:24 PM »
Thank you for your input.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #216: September 14, 2012, 02:12:28 PM »
free agent, plus the loss of a 1st round pick

New CBA states that if the Angels don't offer a competing offer, there is no draft pick lost.  He will most likely decline the 13 mil that will be offered to him, but he could always accept so nothing is for certain.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #217: September 14, 2012, 02:58:29 PM »
on MLB Network's The Rundown later today.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #218: September 14, 2012, 03:31:48 PM »
johnny boy on right now.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #219: September 14, 2012, 04:24:00 PM »
Angels offer at least 1 year, $13MM.  Hard to imagine otherwise.  Greinke'd lose us a draft choice if we signed him.  not that that is a show stopper, but it has to be considered as a cost to us along with the contract.  figure it is equivalent to an extra $5MM of talent we lose as part of the deal.

Offline welch

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #220: September 14, 2012, 04:26:21 PM »
Isn't Greinke the tootler who didn't want to pitch in Washington?  I'd rather have the 2012 Nats' six starters.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #221: September 14, 2012, 04:33:07 PM »
What he said is he did not want to go to a team that would be stripped down in a trade to get him.  He had nothing against the Nats, he said.  It was just the offer that was being talked about would have stripped out a lot of building blocks, and he'd have nothing around him. IIRC, it was something like JZ and Espinosa and maybe Norris, too.  bigger than the Gio package, before we had restocked the system.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #222: September 14, 2012, 05:16:24 PM »
What he said is he did not want to go to a team that would be stripped down in a trade to get him.  He had nothing against the Nats, he said.  It was just the offer that was being talked about would have stripped out a lot of building blocks, and he'd have nothing around him. IIRC, it was something like JZ and Espinosa and maybe Norris, too.  bigger than the Gio package, before we had restocked the system.

I think it was JZ, Espi and Storen, IIRC.  It was a lot.

All the more reason to get him now when he can be had just for $$$.

Offline wpa2629

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #223: September 14, 2012, 05:29:34 PM »
What he said is he did not want to go to a team that would be stripped down in a trade to get him.  He had nothing against the Nats, he said.  It was just the offer that was being talked about would have stripped out a lot of building blocks, and he'd have nothing around him. IIRC, it was something like JZ and Espinosa and maybe Norris, too.  bigger than the Gio package, before we had restocked the system.

What he meant was he wanted to go to a contender, all the other stuff is just noise

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: John Lannan is a better man than i'll ever be
« Reply #224: September 14, 2012, 05:32:18 PM »
Not really. Gutting the team you're being traded to really isn't that smart of an idea.