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Online Lintyfresh85

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Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Topic Start: May 18, 2011, 02:08:51 PM »
2008 was not kind to the Nationals.

Quote
The Washington Nationals
1st Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri (DNS)
2nd. Destin Hood, OF, Alabama HS
3rd. Danny Espinosa, SS, Long Beach State
4thx- Graham Hicks, LHP, Florida HS
5thx- Adrian Nieto, C, Florida HS
15thx- J.P. Ramirez, OF, Texas HS

Things got a whole lot better for the Nationals after this draft (Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen in ’09 and Bryce Harper in ’10). Crow failed to sign and eventually agreed to terms with Kansas City. He’s been lights-out in the big league bullpen in 2011. Hood shows potential but he’s struggling a bit in high-A ball this year. If he can trim down on his strikeouts he could develop into a useful fourth outfielder. Espinosa was handed the club’s second base job this season but he has yet to show that he can hit big league pitching. In parts of two seasons (241 at-bats) he’s hitting .203/.288/.407. He’s also suffered from a low BABIP during that stretch (.230). Ramirez has shown flashes of potential with the bat, but he’s having a rough season in high-A ball. Hicks was traded to the Chicago Cubs earlier this year as part of the loot for starter Tom Gorzelanny. Nieto has been a disappointment as a pro and is currently on the restricted list. Louis Coleman (14th), like Crow, is now a Royal and has also been solid out of the big league bullpen. Steve Lombardozzi (19th) has a chance to develop into a starting second baseman, or a valuable bench player. Unsigned Anthony Meo (43rd) and Alex Dickerson (48th) both have the chance to be taken in the first two rounds of the 2011 draft.


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-amateur-draft-review-the-nl-east/

Offline Smithian

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #1: May 18, 2011, 02:28:04 PM »
It's like we took 2006-2008 off when it comes to drafting.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #2: May 18, 2011, 02:29:41 PM »
It's like we took 2006-2008 off when it comes to drafting.



Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #3: May 18, 2011, 02:30:48 PM »
I will definitely give credit to Rizzo for how he's drafted so far.

Especially the signing bonus guys later in the draft. That's how you game the system. Let the talent drop, and when no one thinks they'll sign, offer them something nice and pick up surplus 1st round talent in the later rounds.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #4: May 18, 2011, 02:37:16 PM »
Espinosa was a good pick. Not signing Crow got us Storen who is leading NL in ERA.

The jury is still out on Hood and Ramirez who are doing okay but not great in High-A. Both are still really young though.

Nieto is a bust I will admit. Not sure why he was so highly regarded coming out of HS. We paid way overslot to sign him.

Hicks help us get Gorzelanny who is helping us out.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #5: May 18, 2011, 02:45:26 PM »
It's like we took 2006-2008 off when it comes to drafting.
The 2007 draft was solid. It netted us Detwiler, Zimmermann, Burgess, Norris, Meyers. I don't think the problem was the drafting so much as it was the player development. The skeleton staff that MLB put up wasn't fixed early on by the Lerners. Plenty of highly rated prospects fizzled IMO because they didn't get the proper development (Marrero, Burgess, Smoker, McGeary, Willems, etc.).

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #6: May 18, 2011, 02:48:41 PM »
Drafting is definitely Rizzo's strength.  He was with the organization from 2006-2008 as Assistant GM and VP Baseball Operations, so he certainly had a say in those weaker years, but he didn't get full control of the drafting until 2009.  Along with signing top round talent later in the draft, it seems like he has also done a very good job of drafting in the middle rounds, something Bowden did not do very well at all.  

The farm system is slowly being rebuilt.  There is a lot of talent at Potomac and Hagerstown has become a juggernaut in the Sally League this year, but my thinking is that the organization is still about 2 drafts away from being well stocked at every level.  Rebuilding the farm system is obviously one key, but a lot also depends on what kind of moves they make with that talent in the future.  Rizzo hasn't had much success in trades to this point, but he also hasn't had a great deal of flexibility in terms of the talent he could offer.  One would hope that he can make some nice moves as talent moves up to the AA and AAA levels.

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #7: May 18, 2011, 02:50:13 PM »
Potomac's offense is terri-bad though.

Seems that's the last group of talent drafted by the Bowden era.

Rizzo hasn't had much success in trades to this point, but he also hasn't had a great deal of flexibility in terms of the talent he could offer.  One would hope that he can make some nice moves as talent moves up to the AA and AAA levels.

I do worry about the trades he makes... especially with what he wanted to give up for Greinke.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #8: May 18, 2011, 02:55:36 PM »
Potomac's offense is terri-bad though.

Seems that's the last group of talent drafted by the Bowden era.

I do worry about the trades he makes... especially with what he wanted to give up for Greinke.

The Potomac offense is off to a slow start for sure, but it is also the youngest team that Potomac has ever had.  Just based off of my personal observations of a lot of the guys that play there, I think a lot of them will adjust and come around in the second half.  But, yeah, pretty much the demarcation line between the Rizzo and Bowden regime is currently at Hagerstown/Potomac.

As for the Greinke trade, I agree that is worrisome what he was willing to give up.  With that said, the trade would have looked much better if they had more upper echelon talent to offset the loss of those players.  When you only have a few hot prospects at AA, AAA, and MLB levels, it is difficult to make any trade without leaving some serious holes.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #9: May 18, 2011, 03:09:05 PM »
You'll get agreement here that it will be very interesting to see how Rizzo trades once the talent starts percolating up to AA/AAA. The catching depth will be his first major test, there, but the proliferation of starting pitching arms will also offer a lot of opportunity. It's been Rizzo's goal to hoard pitching, pitching and more pitching, probably something we'll see again with the glut of arms in this year's draft. Now that that is starting to come to fruition, I'll be expecting him to deal the pitchers to acquire the hitters.

As for the Greinke trade, I agree that is worrisome what he was willing to give up.

On top of that, Ben Goessling hinted in a chat yesterday that Rizzo's extension offer to Greinke was "nine-figure."

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #10: May 18, 2011, 03:10:13 PM »

On top of that, Ben Goessling hinted in a chat yesterday that Rizzo's extension offer to Greinke was "nine-figure."

Wow.

Who knew we'd be thankful Greinke didn't want to come here?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #11: May 18, 2011, 03:19:27 PM »
While I'm of the mind that the likely Greinke deal was not one I'd like, I might give Riz a little credit if, in his honest assessment, he viewed Lombardozzi as Desmond's long-term 2d base partner and he thought Ramos would be a full time catcher. That makes both Norris and Espinosa expendable. It would then come down to the JZ v. Greinke element, and Greinke is established and under control for 2 years, while JZ was a toss up and under control for 4 - 5 years.  I still think too much of JZ to do the deal even if he's right about Lombardozzi and Ramos / flores, but I think it was a call based on his view of the surplus as far as position players goes.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #12: May 18, 2011, 04:49:50 PM »
While I'm of the mind that the likely Greinke deal was not one I'd like, I might give Riz a little credit if, in his honest assessment, he viewed Lombardozzi as Desmond's long-term 2d base partner and he thought Ramos would be a full time catcher. That makes both Norris and Espinosa expendable. It would then come down to the JZ v. Greinke element, and Greinke is established and under control for 2 years, while JZ was a toss up and under control for 4 - 5 years.  I still think too much of JZ to do the deal even if he's right about Lombardozzi and Ramos / flores, but I think it was a call based on his view of the surplus as far as position players goes.

These were great comments JCA.  The strength of the minor league system, if there is one, lies in the middle infielders (plus Bryce Harper).  We do also seem to have a surplus of ML caliber catchers.  I do agree with you that giving up JZ was probably too much to give on top of both Norris and Espinosa. 

I don't know if Storen factored into the deal, but relievers are generally replaceable - even really good relievers.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #13: May 18, 2011, 05:07:53 PM »
I would value JZ, Norris, and Espinosa more than Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes, which got the Red Sox Adrian Gonzalez.  I'm not sure who I'd target with the Nats package.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Fangraphs reviews 2008 draft
« Reply #14: May 18, 2011, 05:16:08 PM »
I would value JZ, Norris, and Espinosa more than Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes, which got the Red Sox Adrian Gonzalez.  I'm not sure who I'd target with the Nats package.

Halladay :lol: