Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Chris Marrero, 1B  (Read 11041 times)

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Offline BBQ

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Follow the Prospects: Chris Marrero, 1B
« Topic Start: April 25, 2011, 05:43:24 PM »
I was doing a baseball-stat binge during one of my computer 'classes' today and came up with some interesting numbers. We can start to do these for others I'll start with Marrero.

Player..................Age at AA................BB %..............K%........HR%.........AVG.........OBP
Marrero...................20-21..................7.7%..............20%............3.4%...........290..........348
Adrian Gonzalez.........20.................... ..9.4%..............22%............3.3%...........266..........344
Nick Swisher.............22................. .....11%...............26.2%..........3.1%...........230..........324
Prince Fielder............20.................. ....11.2%............18.7%..........4.6%...........272..........366
Dan Uggla..............24-25....................8.6%..............19.9%..........3.1%..........283..........357

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #1: April 25, 2011, 06:03:03 PM »
GMU (a/k/a Sue Dinem - not his / her real name) spotted the Adrian Gonzalez comp on the NatsProspects blog last year.  The old link to GMU's blog on the WNFF Marrero thread got me a 404, but here is GMU's nice prospect list.  http://nationalsprospects.com/watch-list-and-player-reports/

In the WNFF thread, [ http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=16736.0], I linked up to a nice Fangraphs / Dave Cameron piece on opposite field power kind of being overlooked and late developing.  For those who regularly watch Marrero, is his power more to all fields than pull?






Offline GMUNat

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #2: April 25, 2011, 06:11:29 PM »
GMU (a/k/a Sue Dinem - not his / her real name) spotted the Adrian Gonzalez comp on the NatsProspects blog last year.  The old link to GMU's blog on the WNFF Marrero thread got me a 404, but here is GMU's nice prospect list.  http://nationalsprospects.com/watch-list-and-player-reports/
I'm not sue dinem, I just wrote an article on his site. I can't find the article on the internet, but here is the unedited version that is saved on my computer:

 
Quote
1B Chris Marrero is one of the Washington Nationals top prospects. The 21 year old product from Miami was drafted 15th by the Nationals in the 2006 MLB Draft. Marrero was ranked 6th in the Nationals farm system this past off-season according to Baseball America. To see if Marrero will become a star in the big leagues, we need to first compare him to the 1B in the big leagues to see if he compares favorably to those 1B numbers in the minors.
Here are the average Minor League numbers for the 25 qualified MLB players who played 1B this season when they were in their age 20 seasons.
   Age   HR   HR/PA%   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   ISO
Avg 1B   22.3   16.3   3.4   .296   .382   .490   .872   .195
Marrero   -   17   3.1   .282   .358   .452   .810   .168
*Age is the average age of the debut season for these 1B.
-Note: 8 of the 25 qualified 1B were not in professional baseball at the age of 20.

Marrero’s age is a plus. Marrero will turn 22 in July. He should be able to reach the big leagues by opening day 2011 (Age 22) or as a September call up (Age 23). 52% of the players in this sample reached the big leagues at age 22 or younger. 88% reached by age 23 or younger. Only 3 of the 25 qualified 1B reached after 23 (Ryan Howard, 24; Adam LaRoche, 24; Kevin Youkilis, 25). It’s not a bad sign to reach after 23 as these 3 players combined for 4 All-Star appearances, and 6 top 6 MVP finishes. Only 1 player in this sample reached the big leagues at age 20 (Miguel Cabrera).
11 out of the 17 1B who played pro ball at age 20 played at AA or higher. 2 of them made it to AAA that season (Albert Pujols, Paul Konerko).

Here is the percentile rank of where Marrero compares to the 25 1B’s minor’s numbers
HR   HR/PA%   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   ISO
70   61   50   31   24   24   20

Marrero only finishes in the top half in 3 out of 7 categories and finishes in the bottom 3rd in 4 of the categories.
Marrero compares somewhat favorably to the others in both HR’s and HR/PA%. But, Marrero lags behind in all of the triple slash. What’s concerning is the fact that Marrero’s SLG% is 38 points behind the average. Baseball America was quoted with this on Marrero’s power: “Marrero's best tool is his plus-plus raw power to all fields, though he's still learning to tap into it.” So far, Marrero hasn’t shown that power yet. Another concern is that his isolated power has declined in each of the past 3 seasons (.209 in 2007, .203 in 2008, and .168 in 2009).

Comparisons
It’s hard to find a comparison to Marrero in this. Only 2 players had an OPS within 30 points of Marrero’s .810 (Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez), but Marrero compares the best with Adrian Gonzalez.
Player   Level   HR   HR/PA%   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   ISO
Marrero   A-AA   17   3.0   .266   .344   .437   .781   .171
Gonzalez   AA   17   3.1   .282   .358   .452   .810   .168

Both players have almost identical amount of HR’s and HR/PA%. Both of them have similar ISO. Marrero edges Gonzalez in triple slash stats mostly due to better luck with balls in play and playing in A ball for half the season. Marrero had a 20.8 K%, 9.0 BB% Gonzalez had a 19.5 K%, 9.4 BB%.
After a disappointing Age 21 season (.692 OPS between 2 levels), Gonzalez had a solid Age 22 season (.821 OPS in AAA). Gonzalez went on to have a brief stint in the big leagues that season (16 games). At age 23, Gonzalez had a breakout season (.960 OPS in AAA) which lead to him being called up midseason to the Rangers big league club. In 2006, Gonzalez at the age of 24, became a full time big league player. That season, he started a streak of 4 straight seasons with a Slugging % of .500 or better culminating in a 2009 season where he finished in the top 5 in OPS. Gonzalez started showing his power at the age of 24. It will be interesting to see if Marrero can tap into his “Plus-Plus raw power to all fields” that Baseball America believes he has similar to the way that Gonzalez did. If Marrero becomes an Everyday 1B, it will mostly likely happen at age 23 or 24 like it did for Gonzalez.

Conclusion
It’s likely that Marrero ends up as a journeyman 1B for most of his career. Marrero’s stats do not have any special indicators that point to him being an average 1B for the future. Marrero’s best hope is to follow the Adrian Gonzalez path of breaking out at around age 23. Gonzalez, like Marrero, looked like a disappointment, but Gonzalez got traded from the Marlins to the Rangers. The Rangers were not patient enough with Gonzalez and he got traded to the Padres. The Padres were rewarded by watching Gonzalez become a franchise player. Hopefully, the Nationals won’t have to trade Marrero to see him breakout.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #3: April 25, 2011, 06:39:05 PM »
Wait... GMU is Sue Dinem? I always wondered who that was!

Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #4: April 25, 2011, 06:42:19 PM »
I'm not sue dinem, I just wrote an article on his site. 

Sure and SpiderNat and AnnieSavoy are different people. ;)

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #5: April 25, 2011, 09:21:04 PM »
Sure and SpiderNat and AnnieSavoy are different people. ;)
You saw me in person so you are capable of confirming my existence

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #6: April 25, 2011, 09:22:21 PM »
You saw me in person so you are capable of confirming my existence

Was it a date?

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #7: April 25, 2011, 09:23:23 PM »
Was it a date?
Special WNFF date night, but we only invited the secret VIP list posters.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #8: April 25, 2011, 09:48:08 PM »
Taking the liberty to copy some stuff from here into GMU's thread on Marrero.

Offline BBQ

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #9: April 25, 2011, 10:02:59 PM »
Yeah sure I did this with 20 minutes of down time with a calculator and the internet, not really intellectual property. We can use stat sheets like this more it would be good. I actually got the idea to compare similar to this from a blog I used to read about Braves prospects lol

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #10: April 25, 2011, 10:34:29 PM »
sue dinem is a guy? 8)

Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #11: April 26, 2011, 11:46:09 AM »
You saw me in person so you are capable of confirming my existence

Quite true. Nothing however indicated you were or were not a Nationals blogger who writes under the pen name Sue Dinem. Hey, it is possible... ;)

Note: Sue Dinem a.k.a. Pseudonym, a.k.a. a boy named Sue. Pretty clever.

Online houston-nat

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #12: April 26, 2011, 11:51:01 AM »
Note: Sue Dinem a.k.a. Pseudonym,

Oh snap. All this time I've been pronouncing it "DIE-nem" and thinking that could be a real name.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #13: April 26, 2011, 12:10:07 PM »
Oh snap. All this time I've been pronouncing it "DIE-nem" and thinking that could be a real name.

Haha... it took me about a month to figure out that it wasn't a woman's name, but actually Pseudonym.

Glad I wasn't alone.

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #14: April 26, 2011, 01:15:48 PM »
Oh snap. All this time I've been pronouncing it "DIE-nem" and thinking that could be a real name.

I think I figured that out last night or this morning. I just assumed I was missing an inside joke or something so I didn't mention it lol...
Good one

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #15: April 26, 2011, 01:17:07 PM »
Marrero has been disappointing again.

Batting .221/.289/.353 in 68 ABs in AAA.

Take away the one game where he hit 2 HRs and 3 RBIs and his numbers look even worse.

Offline BBQ

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #16: April 26, 2011, 08:08:31 PM »
Just give him time. Not even 23 yet.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #17: April 26, 2011, 08:10:42 PM »
Marrero has been disappointing again.

Batting .221/.289/.353 in 68 ABs in AAA.

Take away the one game where he hit 2 HRs and 3 RBIs and his numbers look even worse.

last week he was a god to some ... relax ...

Offline BBQ

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #18: April 26, 2011, 08:14:58 PM »
last week he was a god to some ... relax ...
I never said he is a god. Don't act like that wasn't directed at me.

Offline imref

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #19: May 02, 2011, 10:27:18 PM »
he hit a walk-off tonight.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #20: May 02, 2011, 10:52:43 PM »
I never said he is a god. Don't act like that wasn't directed at me.

Lol did I say that?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #21: May 10, 2011, 01:44:23 PM »
Not showing any signs of life yet with the bat.  Past 10 games - .244 / .279 / .390,  1 HR, 41 ABs, 2 BB, 10 Ks.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #22: May 10, 2011, 01:46:52 PM »
Not showing any signs of life yet with the bat.  Past 10 games - .244 / .279 / .390,  1 HR, 41 ABs, 2 BB, 10 Ks.

last night i heard he hit the ball hard twice, but nothing to show for.

it is a shame though, because if he was tearing it up ... maybe he could've gotten a bump up and give LaRoche a couple days off a week.

not making excuses, but maybe it's because the cuse line-up is so bad, he's not seeing any pitches?  again, not an excuse, maybe a reason?

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #23: May 10, 2011, 01:49:02 PM »
No, he just isn't hitting like he has frequently done at other levels. Little power and he's not even hitting for BA now.

Just hasn't lived up to the hype. Not a bad player but doesn't look like more than a backup 1B at best if that because his defense isn't great or anything.

Offline welch

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Re: Projecting Chris Marrero
« Reply #24: May 14, 2011, 07:27:38 PM »
Hitting seems to have picked up. Now at .261. Can he field? If he's not a plumber, maybe it's time for LaRoche to take a rest, and time for Stairs to leave?