Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP  (Read 2150 times)

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Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #25: May 08, 2012, 05:54:16 PM »
If they can get some weight on him, I could see him maxing out at 95 on the gun.

Offline RD

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #26: May 08, 2012, 07:13:49 PM »
If he's in the low 90's now, that's a positive sign. Could've sworn I read an article last week about him peaking at 90 though. Could be based on what game was seen though.

I'm hopeful for Estevez but I don't believe he's our #4 arm in the organization. Purke, Meyer, Ray, Solis, and Rosenbaum for sure. But there are guys with better stuff(although maybe no the results yet) that would be viewed higher. Guys like Turnbull, Demny, maybe even Karns and Smoker because of their power arsenal. Taylor Jordan as well once he's healthy.

There's a lot to like about Estevez so far but I don't think he's a great prospect just yet.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #27: May 08, 2012, 07:49:53 PM »
Ray is ranked ahead of him.

Estevez is someone to look out for but I wouldn't call him much of a prospect yet.

Offline GMUTrkstar

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #28: May 08, 2012, 09:00:41 PM »
If he's in the low 90's now, that's a positive sign. Could've sworn I read an article last week about him peaking at 90 though. Could be based on what game was seen though.

I'm hopeful for Estevez but I don't believe he's our #4 arm in the organization. Purke, Meyer, Ray, Solis, and Rosenbaum for sure. But there are guys with better stuff(although maybe no the results yet) that would be viewed higher. Guys like Turnbull, Demny, maybe even Karns and Smoker because of their power arsenal. Taylor Jordan as well once he's healthy.

There's a lot to like about Estevez so far but I don't think he's a great prospect just yet.

Estevez and Ray are debatable. Both are young and projectable Ray is a lefty but Estevez is a bit younger. So I can see putting Ray ahead of Estevez the other guys you mentioned not so much. Smoker and Karns are relievers I'll rank a young, projectable starter over a reliever any day especially Smoker he's still living off his stuff and draft position results so far have left much to be desired. Solis was drafted and noted as an injury risk and his two trips to the DL thus far have done little to get rid of those concerns. Turnbull is 2+ years older than Estevez with a limited track record. Demny is a solid arm but I'm more of an Estevez fan.


Offline imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #29: May 08, 2012, 10:14:48 PM »
Ray is ranked ahead of him.

Estevez is someone to look out for but I wouldn't call him much of a prospect yet.

maybe he's ready to close for us?

Offline RD

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #30: May 08, 2012, 11:03:00 PM »
Estevez and Ray are debatable. Both are young and projectable Ray is a lefty but Estevez is a bit younger. So I can see putting Ray ahead of Estevez the other guys you mentioned not so much. Smoker and Karns are relievers I'll rank a young, projectable starter over a reliever any day especially Smoker he's still living off his stuff and draft position results so far have left much to be desired. Solis was drafted and noted as an injury risk and his two trips to the DL thus far have done little to get rid of those concerns. Turnbull is 2+ years older than Estevez with a limited track record. Demny is a solid arm but I'm more of an Estevez fan.



Its not a debate between Ray and Estevez. Ray is a mere months older than Estevez, but has already had a full season of quality performance at Hagerstown. He's a step above Estevez on the ladder, is left handed, and has better stuff. It's not a debate.

I get the argument about the age of guys like Karns and Turnbull, etc but age isn't the most important thing. Stuff is. Shairon Martis always performed well in the minors despite being much younger than his competition, but his stuff wasn't big time. He made it to the bigs at a young age, got tossed around, and hasn't made it back. Not saying Estevez is on the same track. Just saying, numbers at a young age without the standout stuff doesn't make you a great prospect.

Whether or not Karns and Smoker are relievers isn't a great argument either IMO. If you have a power arm and can make an impact, even as a reliever, Ill take that over a marginal starter. At this point, that's all Estevez is. He absolutely has potential and a projectable frame, so he's not a finished product. But he does have a long way to go to be a legitimate prospect IMO.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #31: May 09, 2012, 12:37:36 AM »
Its not a debate between Ray and Estevez. Ray is a mere months older than Estevez, but has already had a full season of quality performance at Hagerstown. He's a step above Estevez on the ladder, is left handed, and has better stuff. It's not a debate.


Scouts seem to hate Ray, for what it's worth.

Offline GMUTrkstar

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #32: May 09, 2012, 07:53:38 AM »
Its not a debate between Ray and Estevez. Ray is a mere months older than Estevez, but has already had a full season of quality performance at Hagerstown. He's a step above Estevez on the ladder, is left handed, and has better stuff. It's not a debate.


How do you know he has better stuff?

Scouts seem to hate Ray, for what it's worth.


+1
Quote
9) Robbie Ray, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+: Limited pitch counts in Low-A, but strong K/IP ratio. Reports on stuff and projectability are mixed, but he did well for a 19-year-old in full-season ball.


http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/20/2650433/washington-nationals-top-20-prospects-for-2012

Ray was said to have an advanced feel for his secondary pitches that most 19 year olds don't have and that low A ball players are not ready for. It'll be interesting to see how his stuff plays as he moves up the ladder.

I get the argument about the age of guys like Karns and Turnbull, etc but age isn't the most important thing. Stuff is. Shairon Martis always performed well in the minors despite being much younger than his competition, but his stuff wasn't big time. He made it to the bigs at a young age, got tossed around, and hasn't made it back. Not saying Estevez is on the same track. Just saying, numbers at a young age without the standout stuff doesn't make you a great prospect.

Whether or not Karns and Smoker are relievers isn't a great argument either IMO. If you have a power arm and can make an impact, even as a reliever, Ill take that over a marginal starter. At this point, that's all Estevez is. He absolutely has potential and a projectable frame, so he's not a finished product. But he does have a long way to go to be a legitimate prospect IMO.


What does "legitimate prospect" mean? If you look at Sickels list Turnbull, Smoker, Hill, etc... are all on the "OTHERS TO WATCH" list just like Estevez can't see how any of those guys are any more legitimate than Estevez. Did you read the Byron Kerr article I posted earlier Doug Harris seems to think the kid has good stuff. We'll agree to disagree on the whole reliever prospects v. starter prospects argument. I don't think Estevez is a "great prospect" but I do think post the Gio trade he has a claim to Top 5 pitching prospects in the Nats organization and could become a mid-rotation starter if things work out.



Offline RD

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #33: May 10, 2012, 12:45:56 AM »
Im not trying to act like Im down on Estevez. Im not at all. At the same time though, Im not going to believe that this kid has major league ability until he shows it. Im hopeful he does, but just because he's a National, Im not going to get all hot and bothered by the kid. Im not one to judge solely by stats, but the kid has a 6 ERA at the level that Ray had a damn good season at last year, at a younger age. There simply is no argument to place him above Ray at this point.

As for Ray, I dont think he has front line potential or anything of the sort. I actually think he's somewhat similar to Estevez, in that they seem to have polished secondary pitches, are a bit advanced for their age in terms of poise, and have frames that need to be filled out. Their ability to fill out those frames and add velocity is what will ultimately determine future success. But, Ray is left handed, was a tad younger at a comparable level(Hagerstown) and had a lot more success there.

I think the simple fact that EVERYONE has Ray ranked considerably higher than Estevez among rank in our system pretty much tells you where he stands in comparison to Estevez. He's the better prospect.

Estevez may prove to be better and have a bigger impact at the big league level. At this point, there isn't anything to suggest thats the case though. Everyone ranks Ray higher, Ray is a step higher in the system, and Ray had more success at the level Estevez is still at.

As for guys like Karns and Smoker ... they project as relievers at the big league level, but they have a power arsenal. They have mid to high 90's fastballs and a breaking pitch that can be tough to hit when its on. Certainly, relievers have lower ceilings than starters. But impact relievers have more value than fringe starters. While both of these guys have a long way to go to be big leaguers, their stuff says they'll get a taste of the bigs at some point.

I can understand an argument against those two, and a couple others. I just dont think there is any way to justify Estevez as a top 5 arm in our organization at this point. When I talk about legitimate prospect ... You either have the stuff or the clear cut success. Estevez hasn't had either yet. I know he is very young, but not every kid younger than 21 is a legitimate prospect. Especially righty's that top out at 92. I know he's got potential, so he's someone to keep watching. He's just not there yet.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #34: May 10, 2012, 10:01:09 AM »
What I do like about Estevez is the difference in his ERA/FIP is the highest in the SAL. So hopefully he'll start to see results more in line with what's expected from his peripherals.

ERA: 6.94 :spaz:
FIP: 3.83 :clap:

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Wirkin Estevez, RHP
« Reply #35: August 02, 2012, 12:39:30 PM »
Finally got back into action today with a rehab start in the GCL, throwing two shutout innings.