Tom - has PECOTA ever projected a 100 win season?
Depends how you define "projected". For the Phils' 91 game projection, perhaps 68,942 times they were projected to win 100 or more, but when averaged with the below 90's the average was 91. So I think there is truth that the projections tend to be more moderate, due to the methodology, but when teams play out the season, there is a lot more random variability since they are only playing 1 season each, not a 1,000,000.
Oh, but to non-answer your question, I'm having trouble finding the old projections on their site. It's kind of driving me nuts that I can't just dial it up.