Author Topic: Are walks undervalued  (Read 277 times)

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Online imref

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Are walks undervalued
« Topic Start: January 19, 2011, 11:56:45 PM »
Here's a really interesting article arguing that 500 walks should equal 325 singles, and then looking at what that trade would do to HOF chances for a number of players:

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/01/19/trading-500-for-325/

John Olerud has HOF stats if you make the 500 for 325 swap.  I'm assuming Josh Willingham & Adam Dunn have pretty good improvements as well.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Are walks undervalued
« Reply #1: January 19, 2011, 11:58:11 PM »
Don't show that to Ladson or Dusty Baker.

Dunn only serves to clog the bases.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Are walks undervalued
« Reply #2: January 20, 2011, 08:43:33 AM »
Fun read.  I don't have the time now, but it would be cool to compare what Dunn did last year - swing more, drop his OBP, raise his average - and see if the trade off of hits for walks was worth it.  I think wOBA already does this because it uses weighted values for the outcomes of plate appearances.  It probably incorporates the "A walk is 65% of a hit."*  

I took a quick look at Dunn last year v year before.  Sure enough - average up a lot, ISO and SLG up, walk rate down a lot, Ks up slightly - wOBA drops.

* Imagine a bunch of sabermetric bench chatter, guys clapping their hands, saying that.

Online blue911

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Re: Are walks undervalued
« Reply #3: January 20, 2011, 08:50:21 AM »
 Do we now say "A walk's as good as 65% of a hit"?

Online imref

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Re: Are walks undervalued
« Reply #4: January 20, 2011, 09:29:33 AM »
Do we now say "A walk's as good as 65% of a hit"?

sounds like the basis for a Geico commercial.

Is a walk really 65% as good as a hit?

Then watch a player walk 65% of the way to first base and get tagged out.

Online blue911

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Re: Are walks undervalued
« Reply #5: January 20, 2011, 10:54:11 AM »
sounds like the basis for a Geico commercial.

Is a walk really 65% as good as a hit?

Then watch a player walk 65% of the way to first base and get tagged out.

What happens if our .5 scout sees a guy get his .65 hit?

Offline welch

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Re: Are walks undervalued
« Reply #6: February 03, 2011, 05:12:09 PM »
Eddie Yost, Washington's perpetual leadoff hitter, 1614 BB against 920 SO over 18 seasons. Led the AL in walks six times; led AL in OP% twice; OPS consistently above .800 and 18 year average OPS of .765. Most of it in a home ballpark that had a left-field foul line at 350 feet and longer.