Author Topic: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread  (Read 30046 times)

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Offline houston-nat

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #100: February 02, 2011, 05:02:38 AM »
Would love if he was there at 23, especially if the first pick is an OF like Springer or Bradley.

The dream scenario, right there.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #101: February 02, 2011, 08:55:41 AM »
Well, yeah it works, but the part of the theory behind not having those little guys pitch big innings is that their bodies can't hold up to the wear and tear.  It works for some, like Lincecum, but many others have a harder time.  One of the reasons they don't want Storen to start, I have to think, is that they don't think he has the build for it.  

If there is some evidence or study that shows a correlation between body type and arm injury I would love to read it.

The dream scenario, right there.

Agreed.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #102: February 02, 2011, 09:27:11 AM »
If there is some evidence or study that shows a correlation between body type and arm injury I would love to read it.

Agreed.


Haha - you caught me with a mindfact (correct usage, no?). 

I suppose it's more anecdotal evidence, and just my impression from seeing teams go after the bigger bodied pitchers.  Or just me pulling something out of my azz.  :)

The closest thing to a publication on the subject is Verducci's latest article on 'the Verducci effect' - one of the mitigating factors he mentions is size - basically, the physically bigger pitchers are less likely to succumb to injuries if their innings count go up by a large amount.  I doubt Verducci has a medical degree from Harvard, but that's the best I can come up with off the top of my head.

Here's the link to the article - http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/01/11/verducci.effect/index.html

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #103: February 02, 2011, 10:20:30 AM »
Right. There are tons of mind-facts with pitching mechanics / injuries. There are tons of "truths" that just keep getting repeated by pitching coaches. I'm not sure if a study has ever been done on the subject, and I'm very curious.

Verducci said the same thing about body types on MLB Network, and that's why I jumped all over your post. I've been wondering about this for the past week or so. I'm not sure if Verducci has any evidence that big bodied pitchers can overcome his "Verducci Effect" or if he is just guessing. Size didn't help Chris Carpenter, Stephen Strasburg, Josh Johnson, Kerry Wood, Francisco Liriano and others from needing TJ surgery.

Maybe I'll write Verducci and ask him why he thinks the body types will save the pitchers from injuries and if he has any data to back it up.

Doug Thorburn had a great read on Oswalt and Lincecum earlier in the year when Lincecum was struggling. He says that pitchers with small body types have to generate more power to throw hard. Because of this, they need to be in better physical condition to be able to repeat their mechanics pitch after pitch, game after game. Otherwise, their mechanics will slip and leave them vulnerable to injury. (DT is also the one that I have cited talking about Strasburg and the "injury cascade" from the shoulder to the elbow, basically blaming his injury on altered mechanics compensating for his shoulder... so he definitely values mechanical repetition).

Quote
With Lincecum battling through his funk, fellow 5’11” right-hander Roy Oswalt recently offered some sage advice. The newest member of the formidable Phillie rotation stressed the importance of conditioning, an aspect of pitching that often goes overlooked. The implication was that Lincecum could greatly benefit by taking a long look at his commitment to preparation.

What really caught my eye about the story was not the advice itself, but rather the source. Mechanically, Roy Oswalt is probably the closest comp in the major leagues to Lincecum’s “Freak” delivery. Both pitchers absolutely explode out of the setup position, generating crazy momentum to more than compensate for any disadvantage in height and wingspan. This requires tremendous lower body strength, which Oswalt made a point to address in terms of conditioning.

Physical maintenance forms the foundation for mechanics, timing, and stamina. Lincecum’s issues with postural stabilization and consistency of timing are directly linked to his conditioning, and the high level of athleticism it requires to reap full advantage of his mechanics.

Oswalt credits Roger Clemens for instilling the competitive drive to never get outworked by an opposing pitcher. Nolan Ryan also had a similar mantra when it came to preparation for competition at the highest level.

Mechanical efficiency is supported by functional strength and flexibility. Athletes rely more heavily on physical conditioning as they get older and the body slides further from its peak ability to recover. Players of slight build face an even greater challenge. Lincecum would be wise to follow the words of his predecessors, and consider an adjustment to his off-season priorities.


http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/08/22/raising-aces-os-mosis/

BTW, the Bauer article reminds me of another Verducci article on Lincecum (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/07/01/lincecum0707/). I'd love to take a "chance" on Bauer. :)

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #104: February 02, 2011, 10:38:23 AM »
There is one hall of fame pitcher under 6' - Whitey Ford.  Pedro will join him.  Maddux is just 6'.

Offline blue911

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #105: February 02, 2011, 10:46:28 AM »
There is one hall of fame pitcher under 6' - Whitey Ford.  Pedro will join him.  Maddux is just 6'.

There are more than that but they all pitched many,many years ago.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #106: February 02, 2011, 11:09:59 AM »
Doug Thorburn had a great read on Oswalt and Lincecum earlier in the year when Lincecum was struggling. He says that pitchers with small body types have to generate more power to throw hard. Because of this, they need to be in better physical condition to be able to repeat their mechanics pitch after pitch, game after game. Otherwise, their mechanics will slip and leave them vulnerable to injury. (DT is also the one that I have cited talking about Strasburg and the "injury cascade" from the shoulder to the elbow, basically blaming his injury on altered mechanics compensating for his shoulder... so he definitely values mechanical repetition).

http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/08/22/raising-aces-os-mosis/

BTW, the Bauer article reminds me of another Verducci article on Lincecum (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/07/01/lincecum0707/). I'd love to take a "chance" on Bauer. :)


RIght, this is a major issue.  Smaller guys are forced to use more of their bodies to generate velocity, while bigger guys can get by with the leverage advantage their bodies.  As a result, they usually have "sloppier" and less efficient mechanics that rely more heavily on certain parts of the body, such as the shoulder.  Through the years I have noticed that body type is not a very good predictor of injury, in fact there really is not a good predictor at all.  There are certain motions that are more likely to result in injury.  Also, as you mentioned, repetition seems to play a big role as.  Another thing that scares me is when pitchers have hitches in their deliveries, as this creates timing issues and seems to nearly always result in some type o medical problem.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #107: February 02, 2011, 11:14:47 AM »
I don't think it's a question of causation.  I'm not sure anybody can really be certain that smaller guys with 'unusual' pitching motions - insert whatever word you want for 'unsual' (violent, unorthodox, explosive, etc.) - are more prone to injury because of their smaller stature and the nature of their deliveries.

To me, it's more a question of liklihood of the smaller pitcher having sustained success vs. a physically bigger pitcher. 

There are lots of examples of big pitchers who have blown out elbows or torn up their shoulders.  If we knew why it happened, it wouldn't happen nearly as much as it does.  The list of small pitchers who never got drafted, never made it out of A, AA, AAA ball, because they were too small and didn't have the velocity or the stamina or any of the other characteristics that come with being physically large, is quite long. 

I would venture a guess that the ratio for success vs. injury and nonperformance is greater for bigger pitchers than it is for smaller pitchers.  Of course it's possible to find that rare guy that is able to do what Maddux and Lincecum and Oswalt have managed to do.  It's just not likely.

But having said all that, I'd take a chance on him because we've got 3 first round picks and if the team's scouts are sold in him being one of the exceptions, I"m fine with it.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #108: February 02, 2011, 11:57:01 AM »
They can't be sure.  And you have already surmised the reason.  Less smaller pitchers make it to the big leagues.  Bigger pitchers are just as susceptible to injury as smaller ones.  The likelihood of injury has more to do with something we cannot easily and readily measure than height/size, which is muscle tissue and how tight/loose it is near the ligaments involved in pitching (or some crap like that, I always get mind blanks when reading about medical stuff).

But just venturing into the topic, three common areas to look for when trying to determine some type of injury risk would be 1.) how the player "picks up the ball" with his throwing side elbow 2.) position of elbow/shoulder during scapular loading 3.) awkward planting of the foot.  And as you could guess, one of the last places to look would be leverage or height.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #109: February 02, 2011, 12:09:37 PM »
You know, maybe another way to frame this would be to look at how bigger pitchers recover from injury. 

I have no idea what the numbers would say on this - and I accept that big pitchers also get injured, though I'm not convinced that they're not at somewhat less risk - but do big pitchers come back from TJ injuries better or worse than smaller pitchers?

Given that it's not really possible to predict if a guy will get injured or not and that that guy has the stuff, physical stature not withstanding, to pitch in the bigs, maybe it makes sense to look at recovery rates relative to physical size.


Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #110: February 02, 2011, 12:17:44 PM »
RIght, this is a major issue.  Smaller guys are forced to use more of their bodies to generate velocity, while bigger guys can get by with the leverage advantage their bodies.  As a result, they usually have "sloppier" and less efficient mechanics that rely more heavily on certain parts of the body, such as the shoulder. 

Fascinating line of thought. I hadn't really thought about how bigger guys could get by with less mechanical efficiency and less core fitness, thus making them more susceptible to wear and tear and injuries down the road.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #111: February 02, 2011, 01:09:35 PM »
I dunno - it seems like a cherry picked risk factor.  It's easy enough to say that smaller guys are forced to use extra muscles and work them harder, making for more wear and tear, resulting in a higher propensity for injuries. 

I'd wholeheartedly agree that, if pitcher is good enough to get to the bigs and dominate, then it shouldn't matter how tall he is or how big he is.  Lincecum is a great pitcher and deserves to be recognized as such.

I just think that, for the most part, the shorter pitchers don't make it that far.  Whether it's due to injuries or other physical limitations, to my eye, there are less of them that make it to that level.  Lincecum and Oswalt are exceptional. 

It may very well be a mindfact, I readily admit, but I think the odds are stacked against Bauer.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #112: February 02, 2011, 01:19:18 PM »
I don't quite understand what "cherry picked risk factor" is getting at, but I am certainly not saying that height will cause injury.

Compare Brandon Webb's pitching motion to that of a smaller guy like Lincecum and you will see what I am talking about.  The process is much more isolated to certain muscles of the body.  Pitching is inherently a risk through its nature, there are only risky mechanics and riskier mechanics.  I think we are talking about two different things though.  I am not considering success rate at all.  Pitching mechanics and height make up two small parts of many that contribute to the success of a pitcher.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #113: February 02, 2011, 01:22:17 PM »
We'll just have to agree to disagree on our mindfacts, Tyler. The key things to me are that Bauer has a smooth delivery that doesn't look at all painful, and doesn't appear to have kinks, and that he is really precise at repeating the delivery with every pitch. Couple that with his brains and (admittedly weird, stubborn) work ethic, and I think the kid will be at least a JZimm-level talent. He's talking about how he can hit 98 now, but he might not choose to do that frequently, the way Strasburg didn't doesn't :(  dial it up past 100 very often.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #114: February 02, 2011, 01:58:05 PM »
JMU - Yeah I think we're talking about different things.  From what you've written, it looks like you know a heck of a lot more about pitching motions than I do.  I'm definitely no expert on that subject.  I'm talking more about whether or not it makes sense to pick Bauer in the upcoming draft.  Whether it's due to injury or otherwise, I think the smaller guys tend to do less well.

Houston - I'm on board with picking him as long as he's not the only pitcher we take.  I just the think the risk of not getting our money's worth out of the number X pick is high with him.  I'm not trying to knock him personally or as a player - he seems like a good dude from that article.  I just want them to due diligence and then some because I think, as a physically smaller pitcher, he has more difficult road in front of him.  I'd root for him, but I think the odds of success would be a little longer than they would be if he was Strasburg-sized.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #115: February 02, 2011, 02:05:54 PM »
We could be extra-sure he eats his vegetables this year. :lol:

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #116: February 02, 2011, 02:14:22 PM »
Whether it's due to injury or otherwise, I think the smaller guys tend to do less well.

I don't disagree.  I have not seen enough of Bauer to make a judgement either way, but luckily UCLA plays enough on TV that should be able to catch a start or two of his this season. 

Offline blue911

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #117: February 02, 2011, 02:16:26 PM »
We could be extra-sure he eats his vegetables this year. :lol:

A lot of people put stock in the Randy Newman Theory.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #118: February 02, 2011, 02:18:47 PM »
We could be extra-sure he eats his vegetables this year. :lol:

Or get him on the Lincecum diet - probably lots of Doritos.

Offline blue911

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #119: February 02, 2011, 02:26:07 PM »
Or get him on the Lincecum diet - probably lots of Doritos.

brownies

Offline tomterp

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Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #121: February 03, 2011, 04:34:26 PM »
I might be back on the Jackie Bradley Jr. bandwagon. 

If Corey Brown is not legit and Nyjer continues being hockey Nyjer rather than baseball Nyjer, we have pretty much nothing at CF at any level until you get to Eury Perez.  And he's so far from the majors you can't count on anything with him.

Good CF's are about as hard to get in free agency as good starting pitchers, so maybe we'd do well do draft a safe bet to develop into one.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #122: February 03, 2011, 04:52:42 PM »
Positional depth doesn't matter when it comes to the draft, but JBJ might be the best player available if he's still on the board for our pick.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #123: February 03, 2011, 10:10:48 PM »
I don't know about positional depth not mattering at all - if the best player available projected as a third baseman in the first round, would you take him (as long as it wasn't a Strasburg/Harper thing where he's so much better than the next best player)?  What about if it happened again for the 2nd pick, 3rd pick, 4th pick?

I think it makes some sense to stock up in areas where your organization is weak.  Maybe not an exclusive focus, but it should still be a consideration. 

We're so dirt poor in a few areas, and the draft is such a crapshoot, I'd be willing to draft at least in part based on position.  I don't think it's like the NBA or NFL drafts where it's easier to pick the 'best player available' because usually it's not as apparent in the MLB who the 'best available' really is.  The Strasburg/Harper picks are the exceptions to that, and maybe the top 3 picks or even top 5 some years. 

Offline Kevrock

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Re: The Official 2011 MLB Mock Draft Thread
« Reply #124: February 03, 2011, 11:21:04 PM »
I don't know about positional depth not mattering at all - if the best player available projected as a third baseman in the first round, would you take him (as long as it wasn't a Strasburg/Harper thing where he's so much better than the next best player)?  

Yes. If he develops (and Zimmerman re-signs, that's not a certainty at this point, lol) you move him to another position or another team in a trade.

Would you skip him, only to watch Zimmerman skip town to be A-Rod's heir, while we have no heir apparent at 3B?

Too many uncertainties in baseball. Best player available.