Author Topic: The Weather (2011)  (Read 18087 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 17807
  • Who is it? Landshark Maam
The Weather (2011)
« Topic Start: December 15, 2010, 12:17:05 AM »
chance of a nor'easter on Sunday.....

capital weather gang:

Quote
The latest GFS model simulates a major to crippling East Coast snowstorm for Sunday. However, as is to be expected this far away from a potential event, the suite of available computer models has not come into consensus for this event. Some show a strong East Coast storm, others push the energy that would generate a storm out to sea, while others do something in between. As Wes discussed yesterday, the key for the storm's development will be whether the northern and southern branches of jet stream come together at the right place at the right time for a storm to develop and track up the East Coast. These details are unknowable at this point, but will come into better focus in the next two days. The bottom line is that overall pattern supports a greater than average chance of a big storm, but that chance is still less than 50/50.

Just as it would've been premature to give up on the storm yesterday when models were trending away from the storm, it would be premature to get overly excited/alarmed over the latest GFS model run. Wes Junker will provide a detailed technical analysis of the situation tomorrow.

Offline The Chief

  • Posts: 30122
    • http://www.wnff.net
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #1: December 15, 2010, 12:28:20 AM »
supposed to snow quite a bit Thurs night, too.  At least here.

Offline cmdterps44

  • Posts: 15536
  • Future
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #2: December 15, 2010, 12:32:30 AM »
great. I hope it snows all day/night tomorrow.

Offline PANatsFan

  • Posts: 37068
  • dogs in uncensored, nudes in gameday
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #3: December 15, 2010, 01:16:11 AM »
Either one would be great.

Offline blue911

  • Posts: 16963
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #4: December 15, 2010, 07:40:42 AM »
great. I hope it snows all day/night tomorrow.

You would lose your internet connection  :hang:

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 18408
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #5: December 15, 2010, 08:04:39 AM »
chance of a nor'easter on Sunday.....

capital weather gang:

Sunday night - Green Bay at new England.  hoping for snow. I hear New England does well in the snow.

Offline The Chief

  • Posts: 30122
    • http://www.wnff.net
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #6: December 15, 2010, 08:27:41 AM »
@blue, he woud still have his phone

Offline Minty Fresh

  • Posts: 16882
  • Let's Do This
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #7: December 15, 2010, 08:30:36 AM »
Sunday night - Green Bay at new England.  hoping for snow. I hear New England does well in the snow.

That would be an EPIC game.  I'd try for tickets if I was guaranteed that much snow.

Offline houston-nat

  • Posts: 16518
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #8: December 15, 2010, 08:39:56 AM »
It snowed here in November.

And yes, the guy with the white jacket DOES have an epic beard.

Offline PatsNats28

  • Posts: 8456
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #9: December 15, 2010, 09:23:53 AM »
How common/uncommon is snow in England? I know rain is quite common, but it appears to be one of those places with less snow than us despite being further north in terms of latitude.

Offline houston-nat

  • Posts: 16518
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #10: December 15, 2010, 09:41:31 AM »
How common/uncommon is snow in England? I know rain is quite common, but it appears to be one of those places with less snow than us despite being further north in terms of latitude.

Yes, because of the Gulf Stream. The warmish water carried up keeps England both warm and wet in winter - a typical day, like today, is in the mid-40s with lots and lots of cloud cover. Usually, I'm told, it only snows once or twice, and generally in February.

Ironically, global warming is what is causing England to get colder. (One of the reasons they call it climate change instead of warming, aside from marketing, was this realization.) The Gulf Stream is moving in a way that will mean England doesn't get kept warm so well in future years, and that's apparently caused by melting ice in Greenland and the Arctic moving south. They're already predicting a white Christmas - which is almost totally unheard of!

Offline imref

  • Posts: 17807
  • Who is it? Landshark Maam
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #11: December 15, 2010, 11:10:15 AM »
i read something disturbing yesterday about global warming and winter trends - basically the science argues that as the arctic warms, it is driving more cold air south to Eurasia and the U.S. east coast.  The arctic circle is about 10 degrees above normal now, while we're freezing.   As the arctic continues to warm, we'll see "more" severe winters/storms.

see: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/index_impacts.html

it looks like the chance of snow is declining for the weekend.

Offline PatsNats28

  • Posts: 8456
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #12: December 15, 2010, 02:41:28 PM »
first snow of the winter today... it was just flurries though, and it's barely going now. i'd reckon we got a centimeter or two (unpacked)

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 18408
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #13: December 15, 2010, 04:11:42 PM »
Yes, because of the Gulf Stream. The warmish water carried up keeps England both warm and wet in winter - a typical day, like today, is in the mid-40s with lots and lots of cloud cover. Usually, I'm told, it only snows once or twice, and generally in February.

Ironically, global warming is what is causing England to get colder. (One of the reasons they call it climate change instead of warming, aside from marketing, was this realization.) The Gulf Stream is moving in a way that will mean England doesn't get kept warm so well in future years, and that's apparently caused by melting ice in Greenland and the Arctic moving south. They're already predicting a white Christmas - which is almost totally unheard of!
i read something disturbing yesterday about global warming and winter trends - basically the science argues that as the arctic warms, it is driving more cold air south to Eurasia and the U.S. east coast.  The arctic circle is about 10 degrees above normal now, while we're freezing.   As the arctic continues to warm, we'll see "more" severe winters/storms.

see: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/index_impacts.html

it looks like the chance of snow is declining for the weekend.
Not quite my field, but the trick will be if the fresh water melt of the Greenland ice pack pushes a lot of fresh water into the atlantic.  The Gulf Stream is dependent on a certain salinity, as I understand.  Disrupt the conveyor, and the northernmost land on the Atlantic loses the warming by the ocean.

Offline Nathan

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 10703
  • Wow. Such warnings. Very baseball. Moderator Doge.
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #14: December 15, 2010, 04:33:14 PM »
@blue, he woud still have his phone
But you can't play WoW on a phone.

Offline The Chief

  • Posts: 30122
    • http://www.wnff.net
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #15: December 15, 2010, 05:41:17 PM »
Yet

Offline houston-nat

  • Posts: 16518
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #16: December 15, 2010, 06:36:36 PM »
Not quite my field, but the trick will be if the fresh water melt of the Greenland ice pack pushes a lot of fresh water into the atlantic.  The Gulf Stream is dependent on a certain salinity, as I understand.  Disrupt the conveyor, and the northernmost land on the Atlantic loses the warming by the ocean.

Yes sir!
At least that's what they said in The Day After Tomorrow.
(No, actually, I heard that from a high school physics teacher, not Dennis Quaid.)

Offline The Chief

  • Posts: 30122
    • http://www.wnff.net
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #17: December 15, 2010, 06:54:47 PM »
Whatever, I'm ready for it.  Milk, Reeses Puffs, and a party size box of Stouffers Mac & Cheese.  Do your worst, mother nature.

Offline PatsNats28

  • Posts: 8456
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #18: December 15, 2010, 10:44:11 PM »
Wouldn't more fresh water result in a smaller concentration of salt, meaning the colligative properties change? aka i believe the water would be susceptible to change in temperature based on the same change in heat.

Offline Nathan

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 10703
  • Wow. Such warnings. Very baseball. Moderator Doge.
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #19: December 15, 2010, 10:55:25 PM »
Wouldn't more fresh water result in a smaller concentration of salt, meaning the colligative properties change? aka i believe the water would be susceptible to change in temperature based on the same change in heat.
Also, water is wet. :?

Offline eckseid

  • Posts: 854
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #20: December 16, 2010, 08:47:13 AM »
The snow is late. It's going to be funny if nothing happens today. Monday no one even thought we were getting snow. Today it's suppose to be 5 inches. Again, will be funny as hell if nothing happens.

Edit: Finally started around 9:10.

Offline PANatsFan

  • Posts: 37068
  • dogs in uncensored, nudes in gameday
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #21: December 16, 2010, 09:22:17 AM »
1 inch - woo

Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 11489
  • Troll So Hard University
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #22: December 16, 2010, 10:16:01 AM »
Sigh. Really hope my commute (Arlington to Herndon) isn't too terrible.

Offline tomterp

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 28276
  • Hell yes!
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #23: December 16, 2010, 10:18:50 AM »
Woke up this morning to the report of impending doom (1-3"), finally had to postone the inevitable and put my winter tires on.  It was every bit the workout I had planned for this morning anyway, more so in fact.    :?

Offline Potomac Cannons

  • Posts: 3279
Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #24: December 16, 2010, 10:31:55 AM »
This isn't snow.