Author Topic: The Weather (2011)  (Read 17529 times)

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Offline EdStroud

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #200: January 20, 2011, 07:30:08 PM »
1-2" with the higher accumulations nearer the Mason-Dixon line.



Does that run parallel to the Mendoza line?

Offline imref

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #201: January 20, 2011, 09:26:26 PM »

Does that run parallel to the Mendoza line?

under 2 along below the Mendoza line.

Online Minty Fresh

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Offline Nathan

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #203: January 20, 2011, 10:45:43 PM »
No flakes spotted here yet, thought it was supposed to have been snowing for almost 2 hours now.

Offline imref

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #204: January 22, 2011, 10:14:19 AM »
maybe just maybe our snow is coming?


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #205: January 22, 2011, 11:59:10 AM »
maybe just maybe our snow is coming?

(Image removed from quote.)
So does this mean that we could have a winter "tour de grits" on ice skates from VA Beach to Birmingham?

Offline PatsNats28

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #206: January 22, 2011, 01:04:55 PM »
another snow day plz

Offline imref

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #207: January 23, 2011, 12:14:20 AM »
So does this mean that we could have a winter "tour de grits" on ice skates from VA Beach to Birmingham?


Margusity on Accuweather says this could be a snow/ice event from georgia to maine, which is unprecedented.  Meanwhile the Capital weather gang guys are saying it looks more like a rain event for us.  The models are still pretty spread apart and it's too soon for an accurate prediction.

Time to re-read Jeff Master's "More Snow in a Warming World"

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1427

Offline imref

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #208: January 24, 2011, 03:28:19 PM »
another bust - storm shifted west so we'll get mostly rain.


Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #209: January 24, 2011, 03:29:37 PM »
another bust - storm shifted west so we'll get mostly rain.

(Image removed from quote.)


Depends on the model.  The reports keep shifting it too far west, then too far east, then too far west again.  I feel sorry for meteorologists in this area.

Online Minty Fresh

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #210: January 24, 2011, 03:43:44 PM »
If it tracks west, I'll get buried up here.  I know a couple of kids that would be psyched to get yet another snow day.

Offline imref

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #211: January 24, 2011, 05:59:07 PM »
and now the GFS model has shifted the storm east again with the D.C. to Baltimore area getting 3-6" or so Wed. night (and another foot north).  The next model runs around midnight, by then the models should be converging.

Offline PatsNats28

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #212: January 24, 2011, 08:29:58 PM »
When I woke up this morning, it was -6 with a wind chill of -20. What the freak?

Offline imref

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #213: January 24, 2011, 11:22:29 PM »
When I woke up this morning, it was -6 with a wind chill of -20. What the freak?


if you want to be warm, move to Canada, here's NASA's mean surface temp anomaly for Dec. 15 - Jan 15.



the areas in red are running 20-30 degrees F above normal.  Look at that tiny patch of blue off the US east coast.

Offline imref

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #214: January 24, 2011, 11:26:13 PM »
latest NAM model has D.C. in the 6" range.  Boston gets 2' (yes, that's feet), NYC in the 6-10" range.  The models are all turning sharply toward rain rapidly converting over to snow Wed. night.

Capital Weather Gang is live blogging tonight's model runs:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/live_blogging_the_models_for_w.html#more

Offline Coladar

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #215: January 24, 2011, 11:59:25 PM »
if you want to be warm, move to Canada, here's NASA's mean surface temp anomaly for Dec. 15 - Jan 15.

(Image removed from quote.)

the areas in red are running 20-30 degrees F above normal.  Look at that tiny patch of blue off the US east coast.


Huh? Is that really right? At first I was thinking, that's amazing such a small area is basically the only ones below normal, we are in said area, and it's so incredibly below normal for so incredibly long. But I seem to recall, at least for December, the mid-west to the Dakotas, practically everywhere, was massively below normal. That image indicates everyone is basically dead normal save for the East Coast, and barely any of the East Coast. I can believe it, haven't really kept track of nationwide weather at all. Just shocking when combined with how horribly cold and how early it started, and how long it's lasting, this entire winter has been for us.

Offline Potomac Cannons

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #216: January 25, 2011, 12:26:57 AM »
EDIT:  Canadian and EURO models have come in and they're in agreement that we're going to get a solid snowfall.  Should be rain Wednesday afternoon turning into snow by 7pm and hitting pretty hard overnight.

The latest GFS forecast projections put the Manassas area in the upper end 3"-6" range.  DC, Arlington etc. in the 6"-10" range.  Boston still coming in around 2'.  Got a good feeling as this is the first time this winter the NAM and GFS have come together like this on snow and the GFS is usually the conservative one on projections.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #217: January 25, 2011, 08:11:27 AM »
if you want to be warm, move to Canada, here's NASA's mean surface temp anomaly for Dec. 15 - Jan 15.

(Image removed from quote.)

the areas in red are running 20-30 degrees F above normal.  Look at that tiny patch of blue off the US east coast.
Basking on Baffin Island.

Offline mitlen

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #218: January 25, 2011, 08:15:52 AM »
Basking on Baffin Island.

Polar bears gotta be lovin' that.   :)

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #219: January 25, 2011, 08:22:28 AM »
Polar bears gotta be lovin' that.   :)
You know that commercial where the polar bear comes down to guys neighborhood, sees he has a Nissan electric car, and gives him a hug?  Well, the coal company lobby is thinking of going up to Baffin Island, taking a picture of some polar bear drinking a pina coloda while kicking  back over a nice seal, and giving a big thumbs up to a sign that says "this moment of warmth would be brought to you by [pick your coal-powered utility], if we wanted you to believe we had anything to do with it."

Offline imref

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #220: January 25, 2011, 09:00:15 AM »
the reports I've seen this morning are back to the low range now, maybe a few inches west of D.C. but it might be too warm to stick.  Sigh...  I just want one decent snow before this winter is over.

Oh well, two more storms behind this one - the next one is on tap for Sunday.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #221: January 25, 2011, 09:50:44 AM »
I saw that they are saying 6-10". CWG, Weather Channel

Offline imref

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #222: January 25, 2011, 11:42:05 AM »
Ignore the date, this actually came out this morning.


Offline tomterp

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #223: January 25, 2011, 11:49:06 AM »
So 2-5" for most of us.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: snow watch 2010/11
« Reply #224: January 25, 2011, 12:38:38 PM »
Damn. I hope this snow storm shifts right over us... I'm already tired of school!!!