Author Topic: Red Sox sign Crawford  (Read 2232 times)

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Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Red Sox sign Crawford
« Reply #50: December 12, 2010, 04:06:00 PM »
Pretty sure you have someone else confused with me.

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Offline GMUNat

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Re: Red Sox sign Crawford
« Reply #51: December 12, 2010, 08:00:05 PM »
338 is a very substantial sample size, and it's a 100% sample of his Fenway PA's.

Try this Sample Size calculator, you'll find that 338 gives you a pretty high level of confidence that your sample is close to the actual performance over a much larger population.


http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm


It's not really substantial. That .301/.406 line translates to about a .311 wOBA. with 338 PA, 1 SD of wOBA is .027. 2 SD which is statistically significant is .54. That means his true wOBA could range from .257 (Alberto Gonzalez)-.365. .365 is about what David Wright, Victor Martinez, A-Rod, Ryan Howard, and Colby Rasmus hit last year. When you factor that the 338 PA is spread over 9 seasons it doesn't really mean much.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Red Sox sign Crawford
« Reply #52: December 12, 2010, 09:55:04 PM »
It's not really substantial. That .301/.406 line translates to about a .311 wOBA. with 338 PA, 1 SD of wOBA is .027. 2 SD which is statistically significant is .54. That means his true wOBA could range from .257 (Alberto Gonzalez)-.365. .365 is about what David Wright, Victor Martinez, A-Rod, Ryan Howard, and Colby Rasmus hit last year. When you factor that the 338 PA is spread over 9 seasons it doesn't really mean much.

He's not going to hit like David Wright or Victor or any of the other 2 SD guys on the upside.  He ought to be able to improve a tick or two from his current average just by getting more comfortable in the park, but I would predict a very modest improvement.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Red Sox sign Crawford
« Reply #53: December 12, 2010, 11:32:52 PM »
He's not going to hit like David Wright or Victor or any of the other 2 SD guys on the upside.  He ought to be able to improve a tick or two from his current average just by getting more comfortable in the park, but I would predict a very modest improvement.
He probably won't hit like them hence why it is the 97.5 percentile of his stats. I would expect something like .290/.350/.460 for Crawford with good defense and steals.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Red Sox sign Crawford
« Reply #54: December 13, 2010, 08:56:01 AM »
He probably won't hit like them hence why it is the 97.5 percentile of his stats. I would expect something like .290/.350/.460 for Crawford with good defense and steals.

But what about his 81 games in Fenway, what sort of slash would you expect?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Red Sox sign Crawford
« Reply #55: December 13, 2010, 10:42:17 AM »
But what about his 81 games in Fenway, what sort of slash would you expect?
.315 / .345 / .430 - .775 OPS next year.  See post  #43.  The .340 - .350  BABIPs are sustainable for a guy with Crawford's speed. Ellsbury has a career .327 BABIP at Fenway, and has been able to maintain a .301 / .361 / .441 line.  I don't see Crawford doing significantly worse.