Author Topic: Fire Rizzo  (Read 206218 times)

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Offline imref

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3801: September 07, 2018, 08:54:49 AM »
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/ct-spt-nationals-competitive-balance-tax-threshold-20180906-story.html

we're not going to be under the luxury tax
the most sensible thing is what was said at the end. It gives them a chance to see what their next-in-line guys can do before figuring out the 2019 roster. Gio wasn't doing anything for them, so freeing up a slot to look at Ross and Fedde and Rodriguez might make some sense.  Anything close to being rosterable in the start-of-the-season bullpen is probably up now and has a chance to show something (or, more likely, fail).  The Murphy move is somewhat questionable, unless they were just interested in a defensive upgrade to help the pitchers.  As dcpatti (I think) pointed out, they probably figured they were moving Herrera too until he was hurt.

Online Slateman

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3802: September 07, 2018, 09:24:36 AM »
the most sensible thing is what was said at the end. It gives them a chance to see what their next-in-line guys can do before figuring out the 2019 roster. Gio wasn't doing anything for them, so freeing up a slot to look at Ross and Fedde and Rodriguez might make some sense.  Anything close to being rosterable in the start-of-the-season bullpen is probably up now and has a chance to show something (or, more likely, fail).  The Murphy move is somewhat questionable, unless they were just interested in a defensive upgrade to help the pitchers.  As dcpatti (I think) pointed out, they probably figured they were moving Herrera too until he was hurt.

I legitimately think that Rizzo wants to see if Difo can start.

Last season during the stretch (July 2 to Sept 14) when he regularly started: 228 PAs, .317/.362/.439, 104 wRC+
This season since Aug 22: 61 PAs, .250/.300/.500   106 wRC+

What's more interesting to me is that Difo is a better hitter against RHP than LHP, where as Kendrick hits lefties just fine. You may be able to simply platoon them and get a mid 700 OPS bat with good defense. I realize that both of the stretches are small sample sizes, but I gotta wonder if Difo is one of those players that does better with regular playing time.

Offline blue911

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3803: September 07, 2018, 09:39:39 AM »
This team has been below .500 every month with the exception of May.To think they were going to turn it around is folly. They sucked. They failed every challenge thrown at them this year. Why would this be any different?

Heading into the All-Star break, Murphy was sporting a .253/.303/.333 line with even worse than normal defense. At the non-waiver trade deadline, he had improved to  .271/.328/..373 better but that isn't going to bring back anything of value.


Not one of the players traded had any meaningful value, hell Gio's been a Brewer for over a week and still hasn't played. Madson and Kelley have limited value at their best because neither can go back-to-back games. The pitching development has been woeful and that's on Rizzo.


But before you replace Rizzo you better figure out who's going to run your Latin American and Caribbean scouting department because DiPuglia will certainly jump ship. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3804: September 07, 2018, 10:35:53 AM »
Not one of the players traded had any meaningful value, hell Gio's been a Brewer for over a week and still hasn't played. Madson and Kelley have limited value at their best because neither can go back-to-back games. The pitching development has been woeful and that's on Rizzo.


But before you replace Rizzo you better figure out who's going to run your Latin American and Caribbean scouting department because DiPuglia will certainly jump ship. 
Strange they traded for Gio in the first place.

As for pitching development, I think Dave Laurilia in FG has an article up about Lopez. I guess he's had a couple of effective outings lately.  The article goes into changes he's made or is making and how they are taking.  One change is to drop the curve ball and start throwing a slider as his main breaking pitch. Another was to get him to throw his change up more. 

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3805: February 16, 2019, 09:40:24 AM »
Mike Rizzo has led ten drafts as the #Nats GM, 36 of his draft picks have made the majors, only the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox were worse over that time.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/draft?year=ten&round=&pos=&team_id=120&mlb=

Offline DCFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3806: February 16, 2019, 10:05:21 AM »
Mike Rizzo has led ten drafts as the #Nats GM, 36 of his draft picks have made the majors, only the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox were worse over that time.

So drafting isn’t his forte but one would have to pat him on the back for his deft trading and free agent picking to achieve the level of success the Nats have.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3807: February 16, 2019, 10:17:01 AM »
So drafting isn’t his forte but one would have to pat him on the back for his deft trading and free agent picking to achieve the level of success the Nats have.

Early on Rizzo made his reputation by winning big trade after big trade but the swap for Trea Turner was before the 2015 season, since then his record has been spotty at best, although his blockbusters were very very good deals for the Nats.

Free agent picking is easier if you have not only authorization to spend in the top five in the league in AAV but also to spend out into years into the future (particularly when he took over a team with almost literally $0 of future payroll committed). The Scherzer signing was certainly the crown jewel, with each bWAR costing only $4 million. Rizzo's other big dollar contracts haven't worked out so great. So far Strasburg hasn't been a bust at nearly $8 million per bWAR but players tend to get worse as they age so let's hope that Stras can give the Nats a little more production for the buck. The Werth contract was terrible, $14 million per bWAR, of course the apologists will go on all day about intangibles. The Zimmerman deal has been a disaster, $21 million per bWAR, although he has one more season to try to make up for the damage.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3808: February 16, 2019, 10:26:25 AM »
Early on Rizzo made his reputation by winning big trade after big trade but the swap for Trea Turner was before the 2015 season, since then his record has been spotty at best, although his blockbusters were very very good deals for the Nats.

Free agent picking is easier if you have not only authorization to spend in the top five in the league in AAV but also to spend out into years into the future (particularly when he took over a team with almost literally $0 of future payroll committed). The Scherzer signing was certainly the crown jewel, with each bWAR costing only $4 million. Rizzo's other big dollar contracts haven't worked out so great. So far Strasburg hasn't been a bust at nearly $8 million per bWAR but players tend to get worse as they age so let's hope that Stras can give the Nats a little more production for the buck. The Werth contract was terrible, $14 million per bWAR, of course the apologists will go on all day about intangibles. The Zimmerman deal has been a disaster, $21 million per bWAR, although he has one more season to try to make up for the damage.
And yet somehow they won four division titles and have one of the best overall records during that stretch. He’s no Ernie Grunfeld.

If they don’t win this year I can see the Lerners sacking him. And we will move on. I am sure the Nats can do better but they certainly can do worse.

Also the drafting stat doesn’t consider international signings. Soto and Robles come to mind. Draft and trades aren’t ten only way to fill rosters.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3809: February 16, 2019, 10:29:34 AM »
And yet somehow they won four division titles and have one of the best overall records during that stretch. He’s no Ernie Grunfeld.

If they don’t win this year I can see the Lerners sacking him. And we will move on. I am sure the Nats can do better but they certainly can do worse.

Also the drafting stat doesn’t consider international signings. Soto and Robles come to mind. Draft and trades aren’t ten only way to fill rosters.

Very true, he is no Grunfeld, he is a competent GM who won four division titles based on tanking for #1 overall draft picks and spending huge amounts of money. He is not an elite GM.

Good point on the international signings. I'd need to see a comparison of team by team, but Soto and Robles are a great starting point.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3810: February 16, 2019, 12:57:43 PM »
Very true, he is no Grunfeld, he is a competent GM who won four division titles based on tanking for #1 overall draft picks and spending huge amounts of money. He is not an elite GM.

Good point on the international signings. I'd need to see a comparison of team by team, but Soto and Robles are a great starting point.
I think he just inherited very little rather than tanking.  He needs postseason success to be considered a top GM.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3811: February 16, 2019, 01:04:49 PM »
I think he just inherited very little rather than tanking.  He needs postseason success to be considered a top GM.

The team had been tanking when he took over. He had several very good young players in the system, high draft picks, and most importantly no money tied up i in bad contracts so he was able to spend at will.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3812: February 16, 2019, 01:14:51 PM »
The team had been tanking when he took over. He had several very good young players in the system, high draft picks, and most importantly no money tied up i in bad contracts so he was able to spend at will.
I don't remember much good young talent in the system when he came?  Agree he had money to spend.  That's why I think  overspending on Werth was not really bad.  The Harper and Strasburg picks were no brainers.  The Rendon pick was a good one--lots of people had doubts on him. 

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3813: February 16, 2019, 01:20:25 PM »
I don't remember much good young talent in the system when he came?  Agree he had money to spend.  That's why I think  overspending on Werth was not really bad.  The Harper and Strasburg picks were no brainers.  The Rendon pick was a good one--lots of people had doubts on him. 

JZ, RZ, & ID, three guys who played well enough to earn nine figure contracts, that's a heck of a start. Guz was mostly a bust here but had two years good enough to net Roark. I'd have to look to see who else but three future stars is pretty good for a team that had just started tanking.

Offline DCFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3814: February 16, 2019, 01:21:53 PM »
I don't remember much good young talent in the system when he came?  Agree he had money to spend.  That's why I think  overspending on Werth was not really bad.

Signing Werth to that contract was to send a message across the league that the Nats were players and weren't shy about spending money. I think it's safe to say that LAC died a long time ago.

Offline LoveAngelos

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3815: February 16, 2019, 06:50:05 PM »
I don't think it is credible to call for Riz to be fired until Erie Grunted is fired or Dan Snyder fires himself..........I mean there is only one legitimate sports executive in the DC area and he should be fired??????????????........the Caps front office has immunity  from such talk

Offline Smithian

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3816: February 18, 2019, 09:48:28 AM »
Mike Rizzo has led ten drafts as the #Nats GM, 36 of his draft picks have made the majors, only the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox were worse over that time.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/draft?year=ten&round=&pos=&team_id=120&mlb=
The Nationals have traded a lot of prospects for established talent. That isn't news. The Nats are knocking on the door of 2020, are almost certainly in post-Bryce life, and it looks like the window is still open. Can't complain too much. It is very possible at some point this season the Nats roll out the following lineup;

C: Kieboom/Severino
1B: Zimmerman
2B: Difo
SS: Turner
3B: Rendon
LF: Soto
CF: Taylor
RF: Robles

I think Dozier and Eaton will more often than not, but barring Taylor being moved we'll see that 8 on the field at some point. That is a completely home grown lineup of players who made major league debuts as Nationals.  It isn't like Rizzo has only relied on free agency.

I do think our pitching development has been much spottier. They moved a lot of young arms in trade in the early 2010's, but those players were never really replaced by another wave of talent.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3817: February 18, 2019, 10:40:38 AM »
The Nationals have traded a lot of prospects for established talent. That isn't news. The Nats are knocking on the door of 2020, are almost certainly in post-Bryce life, and it looks like the window is still open. Can't complain too much. It is very possible at some point this season the Nats roll out the following lineup;

C: Kieboom/Severino
1B: Zimmerman
2B: Difo
SS: Turner
3B: Rendon
LF: Soto
CF: Taylor
RF: Robles

I think Dozier and Eaton will more often than not, but barring Taylor being moved we'll see that 8 on the field at some point. That is a completely home grown lineup of players who made major league debuts as Nationals.  It isn't like Rizzo has only relied on free agency.

I do think our pitching development has been much spottier. They moved a lot of young arms in trade in the early 2010's, but those players were never really replaced by another wave of talent.
Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki say Hi.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3818: February 18, 2019, 10:43:40 AM »
Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki say Hi.
Kieboom and Severino will get some burn. Between Suzuki and Gomes one guy will suddenly be too old and terrible before going on the "I'm awful" DL.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3819: February 18, 2019, 12:18:00 PM »
The Nationals have traded a lot of prospects for established talent. That isn't news. The Nats are knocking on the door of 2020, are almost certainly in post-Bryce life, and it looks like the window is still open. Can't complain too much. It is very possible at some point this season the Nats roll out the following lineup;

C: Kieboom/Severino
1B: Zimmerman
2B: Difo
SS: Turner
3B: Rendon
LF: Soto
CF: Taylor
RF: Robles

I think Dozier and Eaton will more often than not, but barring Taylor being moved we'll see that 8 on the field at some point. That is a completely home grown lineup of players who made major league debuts as Nationals.  It isn't like Rizzo has only relied on free agency.

I do think our pitching development has been much spottier. They moved a lot of young arms in trade in the early 2010's, but those players were never really replaced by another wave of talent.

our internal development system is not good. we have traded a lot of prospects for established talent yes but even those guys usually flame out. our ability to develop pitching has to be the worst among decent teams

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3820: February 18, 2019, 12:56:29 PM »
I suppose the two best position players we've drafted and traded away have been Souza and Norris.  Man, that's not great position player drafting.  Pitchers seem to have been a bit better. Karns, Ray, Peacock, Milone had a few serviceable years, Pivetta, of course Giolito and Dunning, plus Meyers.  I'm not counting Rivero and Luzardo because they were not draftees, nor was Treinen (acquired through trade). 

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3821: February 18, 2019, 06:33:34 PM »
I suppose the two best position players we've drafted and traded away have been Souza and Norris.  Man, that's not great position player drafting.  Pitchers seem to have been a bit better. Karns, Ray, Peacock, Milone had a few serviceable years, Pivetta, of course Giolito and Dunning, plus Meyers.  I'm not counting Rivero and Luzardo because they were not draftees, nor was Treinen (acquired through trade).

Luzardo was drafted in the third round.

Offline imref

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3822: March 14, 2019, 10:12:01 AM »
Pretty remarkable seeing the rapid turnover of our roster, here's 2017's opening day 25-man:



I'm counting just 8 that are likely to be on the 2019 OD roster.

Online bluestreak

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3823: March 14, 2019, 10:20:38 AM »
I forgot Chris Heisey existed.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3824: March 14, 2019, 01:15:17 PM »
I suppose the two best position players we've drafted and traded away have been Souza and Norris.  Man, that's not great position player drafting.  Pitchers seem to have been a bit better. Karns, Ray, Peacock, Milone had a few serviceable years, Pivetta, of course Giolito and Dunning, plus Meyers.  I'm not counting Rivero and Luzardo because they were not draftees, nor was Treinen (acquired through trade).

Why do you judge drafting off who you trade away?  How about the position players we've drafted/signed as international free agents that we've kept?  Zimmerman going back before Rizzo's time.  Harper I guess was a no-brainer.  Rendon was a great pick.  Soto was obviously an amazing scout.  Robles looks to be the same.  MAT is a contributor.  Kieboom and Garcia are coming. 

As for Souza...he got us Trea Turner!  And Joe Ross as a bonus.