Author Topic: Fire Rizzo  (Read 183449 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online bluestreak

  • Posts: 6642
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3850: March 14, 2019, 04:56:27 PM »
To be fair, Rendon's talent wasn't in question. It was whether or not he was too much of an injury risk/would he recover. If he didn't have that injury risk, he would have been taken sooner, without a doubt. He was basically tagged, 'Can't miss, if healthy.' Sounds like a dumb caveat, but it was a risk five other teams wouldn't take.

I don’t see how you can separate health and talent in a player eval. They are both crucial to a player’s development and evaluating health is part of scouting, just like talent. The teams that passed on him didn’t do a good job of evaluating his health risk. The Nats did.

Offline DCFan

  • Posts: 9278
  • What are you dense?
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3851: March 14, 2019, 04:57:06 PM »
It's not really sustainable to bank on hitting on all your first-round picks and then using free agency and an international player here or there to carry you to a full roster.

Which is why barring a playoff appearance Rizzo will be the first one fired years end.

Offline dracnal

  • Posts: 1198
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3852: March 14, 2019, 05:00:46 PM »
I don’t see how you can separate health and talent in a player eval. They are both crucial to a player’s development and evaluating health is part of scouting, just like talent. The teams that passed on him didn’t do a good job of evaluating his health risk. The Nats did.

My gut says after getting Strasburg and Harper back to back, the Nats were pretty highly confident that they could afford more risk on a bust than many other teams. If Rendon didn't play out, they still have SS and Harper. If he doesn't bust, they are significantly improved.

Offline DCFan

  • Posts: 9278
  • What are you dense?
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3853: March 14, 2019, 05:08:11 PM »
I don’t see how you can separate health and talent in a player eval. They are both crucial to a player’s development and evaluating health is part of scouting, just like talent. The teams that passed on him didn’t do a good job of evaluating his health risk. The Nats did.

Thank you doctor. :)

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1236
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3854: March 15, 2019, 11:13:20 AM »
It's not really sustainable to bank on hitting on all your first-round picks and then using free agency and an international player here or there to carry you to a full roster.

So...it's bad to rely on the draft, internation signings, and free agency to fill your roster?  I'm wondering besides trades what exactly there is left?  Also, we haven't relied on only first round picks. 

No organization is perfect and can improve in certain areas.  Rizzo and the Nats front office have made mistakes.  But they have had far more success than failures, thus why this team has been in the playoffs 4 out of 6 years and above .500 each year.  And that looks to continue.  He's put together rosters that were CAPABLE of getting to the postseason and winning.  The players and managers haven't come through in the clutch.  So he's got to continue to tweak and try and get over the hump.

Bottomline, we're lucky to have Rizzo.  I suspect he won't fully be appreciated until he's gone and someone else very likely doesn't perform to the same level.   

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 232
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3855: March 15, 2019, 12:01:54 PM »
Rizzo and his scouts have done an excellent job otherwise we wouldn't be considered world series contenders every year. The one spot he's gotten burned the most is trying to get a dominant closer to push them over the top at the trading deadline.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 15037
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3856: March 15, 2019, 12:17:10 PM »
So...it's bad to rely on the draft, internation signings, and free agency to fill your roster?  I'm wondering besides trades what exactly there is left?  Also, we haven't relied on only first round picks. 

No organization is perfect and can improve in certain areas.  Rizzo and the Nats front office have made mistakes.  But they have had far more success than failures, thus why this team has been in the playoffs 4 out of 6 years and above .500 each year.  And that looks to continue.  He's put together rosters that were CAPABLE of getting to the postseason and winning.  The players and managers haven't come through in the clutch.  So he's got to continue to tweak and try and get over the hump.

Bottomline, we're lucky to have Rizzo.  I suspect he won't fully be appreciated until he's gone and someone else very likely doesn't perform to the same level.   

i don't disagree with any of this i just think his amateur scouting staff isn't really that great (compared to other contenders like NYY, Boston or STL, for example) and it could hamper us moving forward

i'd say we're like between 15th-20th in terms of amateur scouting (domestic) and development which is fine but not great. not sure why that's such a hot take when the numbers back that up.

Offline DCFan

  • Posts: 9278
  • What are you dense?
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3857: March 15, 2019, 12:20:55 PM »
i don't disagree with any of this i just think his amateur scouting staff isn't really that great (compared to other contenders like NYY, Boston or STL, for example) and it could hamper us moving forward

This is the end of the line for Rizzo. If we don’t get in the playoffs this fall he’s a goner.

Online Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 13483
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3858: March 15, 2019, 12:28:22 PM »
This is the end of the line for Rizzo. If we don’t get in the playoffs this fall he’s a goner.
Most likely. Wonder if Bowden is available?

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1236
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3859: March 15, 2019, 01:36:37 PM »
i don't disagree with any of this i just think his amateur scouting staff isn't really that great (compared to other contenders like NYY, Boston or STL, for example) and it could hamper us moving forward

i'd say we're like between 15th-20th in terms of amateur scouting (domestic) and development which is fine but not great. not sure why that's such a hot take when the numbers back that up.

I wouldn't say it's a hot take...you seemed to be on a path that you thought much worse than middle of the pack.  Still, I'm not sure what numbers back up how it ranks in the Rizzo era. 

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1236
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3860: March 15, 2019, 01:39:58 PM »
This is the end of the line for Rizzo. If we don’t get in the playoffs this fall he’s a goner.

Do you not think that he's put together a quality roster?  So if we suffer a bunch of injuries and/or guys just severely underperform and we finish 3rd behind the Braves and Phillies that is all on Rizzo?  It's on the GM to assemble the best roster possible.  After that, it's out of their hands.  Making him the scapegoat if he's not the problem is foolish. 

Offline DCFan

  • Posts: 9278
  • What are you dense?
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3861: March 15, 2019, 01:42:39 PM »
Do you not think that he's put together a quality roster?  So if we suffer a bunch of injuries and/or guys just severely underperform and we finish 3rd behind the Braves and Phillies that is all on Rizzo?  It's on the GM to assemble the best roster possible.  After that, it's out of their hands.  Making him the scapegoat if he's not the problem is foolish. 

We got rid of a manager because he didn’t take us far enough in the playoffs. So if Rizzo’s handpicked successor doesn’t even smell the playoffs that’s on Rizzo.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1236
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3862: March 15, 2019, 01:58:49 PM »
We got rid of a manager because he didn’t take us far enough in the playoffs. So if Rizzo’s handpicked successor doesn’t even smell the playoffs that’s on Rizzo.

Who says the manager selection is all Rizzo? 

Offline DCFan

  • Posts: 9278
  • What are you dense?
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3863: March 15, 2019, 02:32:54 PM »
Who says the manager selection is all Rizzo? 

Do you know otherwise?

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 15037
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3864: March 15, 2019, 02:34:53 PM »
I wouldn't say it's a hot take...you seemed to be on a path that you thought much worse than middle of the pack.  Still, I'm not sure what numbers back up how it ranks in the Rizzo era. 

The link earlier in the thread had us 4th-worst in number of draft picks to make the majors and yes that includes guys we dealt away. And we had 2 #1 overall picks in there.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/draft?year=ten&round=&pos=&team_id=120&mlb=

The Mets have 52. Yankees have 49 (funny enough, almost all from mid-to-late rounds). Red Sox have 49. Phillies (37) and Braves (36) are right with us luckily enough.

"Middle of the pack" might be generous when the data indicates we are not a strong drafting team. I don't know about our development staff because we've done really well with making low-cost international guys into stars (Robles, Soto) recently but in terms of the draft, we really need to improve moving forward. The Caps were in a similar spot for a while and they adjusted their strategy without firing anyone and now they kill the draft.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1236
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3865: March 15, 2019, 02:39:14 PM »
The link earlier in the thread had us 4th-worst in number of draft picks to make the majors and yes that includes guys we dealt away.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/draft?year=ten&round=&pos=&team_id=120&mlb=

And I addressed the flaw in that.  "Making the majors" doesn't make you good or indicate success.  Is it impressive if the Marlins shuffle back and forth a ton of borderline MLB players on and off their roster?  What separates good teams is having elite players.  You have to get them somehow, and obviosuly it's not a good thing to rely exclusively on signing them as free agents.  We've added guys that way such as Max and Corbin, but we have a lot of top talent from drafts/itnernational signings and trading prospects.  I'd rather have 1 stud we drafted then 10 borderline guys that "made the majors."  You can get those guys to fill your roster out easily through any numbers of methods. 

What sucks is your logic in coming to that "hot take." 

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 15037
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3866: March 15, 2019, 02:40:50 PM »
And I addressed the flaw in that.  "Making the majors" doesn't make you good or indicate success.  Is it impressive if the Marlins shuffle back and forth a ton of borderline MLB players on and off their roster?  What separates good teams is having elite players.  You have to get them somehow, and obviosuly it's not a good thing to rely exclusively on signing them as free agents.  We've added guys that way such as Max and Corbin, but we have a lot of top talent from drafts/itnernational signings and trading prospects.  I'd rather have 1 stud we drafted then 10 borderline guys that "made the majors."  You can get those guys to fill your roster out easily through any numbers of methods. 

What sucks is your logic in coming to that "hot take." 

more expensive to sign free agents to fill out your roster than insert a guy from AAA. literally last year we struggled because we had no guys to fill in back-end spots on our roster so we had to rely on jeremy hellickson to step in for stephen strasburg

my "hot take" is we really need to improve our domestic scouting and apparently that's a ludicrous idea to you.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1236
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3867: March 15, 2019, 02:41:27 PM »
The link earlier in the thread had us 4th-worst in number of draft picks to make the majors and yes that includes guys we dealt away. And we had 2 #1 overall picks in there.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/draft?year=ten&round=&pos=&team_id=120&mlb=

The Mets have 52. Yankees have 49 (funny enough, almost all from mid-to-late rounds). Red Sox have 49. Phillies (37) and Braves (36) are right with us luckily enough.

"Middle of the pack" might be generous when the data indicates we are not a strong drafting team. I don't know about our development staff because we've done really well with making low-cost international guys into stars (Robles, Soto) recently but in terms of the draft, we really need to improve moving forward. The Caps were in a similar spot for a while and they adjusted their strategy without firing anyone and now they kill the draft.

I guess you edited since I replied.  And you led off with the Mets have 52.  How has that worked out for them?  I rest my case.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1236
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3868: March 15, 2019, 02:42:24 PM »
more expensive to sign free agents to fill out your roster than insert a guy from AAA

Who are these expensive guys at the back-end of our roster?  And aren't guys like MAT, Difo, etc guys from within filling our roster out? 

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1236
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3869: March 15, 2019, 02:43:21 PM »
more expensive to sign free agents to fill out your roster than insert a guy from AAA. my "hot take" is we really need to improve our domestic scouting and apparently that's a ludicrous idea to you.

Your measure of that is how many guys a team has drafted that made the majors.  That is not sound logic in and of itself whatsover.  Sorry to tell you. 

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 15037
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3870: March 15, 2019, 02:44:43 PM »
I guess you edited since I replied.  And you led off with the Mets have 52.  How has that worked out for them?  I rest my case.



we're still grasping onto a walk-off homer to stave off elimination in the 2012 NLDS

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 15037
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3871: March 15, 2019, 02:46:49 PM »
Who are these expensive guys at the back-end of our roster?  And aren't guys like MAT, Difo, etc guys from within filling our roster out? 

howie kendrick - $4 million this year to be back up 2B/LF/1B
matt adams - $4 million plus $1 million buyout as a backup 1B
anibal sanchez - 2/$19 million for #4 starter

We go cheap on the bullpen but inevitably pay a price at the deadline to fix it every year (Herrera, for example)

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1236
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3872: March 15, 2019, 02:49:08 PM »
(Image removed from quote.)

we're still grasping onto a walk-off homer to stave off elimination in the 2012 NLDS

Going back 4 years now?  Convenient.  How about the Mets 147-177 record the past 2 years?

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1236
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3873: March 15, 2019, 02:49:49 PM »
howie kendrick - $4 million this year to be back up 2B/LF/1B
matt adams - $4 million plus $1 million buyout as a backup 1B
anibal sanchez - 2/$19 million for #4 starter

We go cheap on the bullpen but inevitably pay a price at the deadline to fix it every year (Herrera, for example)

You think other teams don't have vets like Howie/Adams/Sanchez because their AAA depth is so awesome?  Wow.  Just stop.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 15037
Re: Fire Rizzo
« Reply #3874: March 15, 2019, 02:52:14 PM »
Going back 4 years now?  Convenient.  How about the Mets 147-177 record the past 2 years?

the original point was in 10 years under rizzo we've below-average at drafting and you laughed at the mets being "better" than us when they've gone to a world series with maybe half the spending we do. maybe we shouldn't laugh at them until we've won a playoff series