Author Topic: Goldstein on top Nationals prospects  (Read 1997 times)

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Offline tomterp

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Re: Goldstein on top Nationals prospects
« Topic Start: November 24, 2010, 09:15:07 AM »
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7. Michael Burgess, OF
DOB: 10/20/88
Height/Weight: 5-11/195
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: Supplemental first round, 2007, Hillsborough HS (FL)
2010 Stats: .262/.351/.430 at High-A (101 G); .284/.391/.649 at Double-A (21 G)
Best/Worst Tool: Power/speed

Year in Review: This slow-developing outfielder made some second-half strides and finished the year strong in the final weeks of the season at Double-A.
The Good: Burgess shows classic right-field skills out of a thick, compact, muscular frame. He works the count well and can pound mistakes with raw power that rates as 60-65 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He's a good outfielder who reads balls off the bat well, and his arm strength is above average.
The Bad: Burgess' speed is a tick below average and likely to get worse as he gets older. He cut his strikeout rate in each of the past two years but still can be fooled by good breaking balls. While he hits left-handers well, he cuts down on his power in order to do so.
Ephemera: Nine of Burgress' 12 Carolina League home runs were hit in the first three innings of games. From the fourth inning on, he had just three jacks in 229 at-bats.
Perfect World Projection: He could be a classic everyday right fielder with power.
Fantasy Impact: He'll have standard right-field value, with even more value to leagues that value on-base skills.
Path to the Big Leagues: Burgess will begin 2011 back at Harrisburg. If he builds on the late-season power surge, he could enter the big-league picture quickly.
ETA: 2012.

8. Robbie Ray, LHP
DOB: 10/1/91
Height/Weight: 6-2/170
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: 12th round, 2010, Brentwood HS (TN)
2010 Stats: 0.00 ERA (1.0-0-0-2) at Short-season (1 G)
Best/Worst Tool: Fastball/curveball.

Year in Review: Thought to be too expensive after an up-and-down senior year, the Nationals continued their aggressive drafting by taking Ray late and giving him just under $800,000 to sign.
The Good: If you see Ray on a good day, he looks like an easy first-round pick. Skinny and loose, he generally sits in the low 90s with a naturally darting fastball and has a change-up that is highly advanced for his age. His arm action is clean and his command and control are solid.
The Bad: If you see Ray on a bad day, he looks like a potential first-rounder who would have been best served by going to college. One area scout described his fastball as 85-94 mph, and his breaking ball wandered between usable and nothing more than a get-me-over pitch with little movement.
Ephemera: Located in a Nashville suburb, Brentwood High School was attended by pop star Ke$ha, not that it's anything to be proud of.
Perfect World Projection: Ray has a high ceiling, but it's not without considerable risk.
Fantasy Impact: Let's see what version we get this year before we start projecting.
Path to the Big Leagues: Ray will compete for a full-season assignment this spring, but there are no guarantees.
ETA: 2014.

9. Eury Perez, OF
DOB: 5/30/90
Height/Weight: 6-1/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2007, Dominican Republic
2010 Stats: .299/.345/.381 at Low-A (131 G)
Best/Worst Tool: Speed/power

Year in Review: This fast outfielder struggled in full-season debut but finished with a bang, batting .339/.384/.451 after the All-Star break.
The Good: Perez is a plus-plus runner and he already knows how to use it, leading the Sally League with 64 stolen bases at an 83 percent clip. He developed a more contact-oriented approach as the season wore on, making consistent contact while being equally effective against both lefties and righties. He's a solid outfielder and his arm is average to a tick above.
The Bad: Perez has a leadoff profile but needs to develop a true top-of-the-order approach. He goes up looking to swing the bat and needs to draw more walks for his role. His outfield play is also a bit rough, as he often needs his speed to make up for bad jumps. He doesn't have power, nor does he project for any.
Ephemera: In July and August, Perez stole 38 bases in 41 attempts last season.
Perfect World Projection: He'd be a classic old-school leadoff hitter.
Fantasy Impact: If Perez develops into an everyday player, his stolen-base totals alone will help any fantasy squad.
Path to the Big Leagues: Perez is equal parts excitement and risk. He'll try to build on 2010's second half at Potomac.
ETA: 2013.

10. Tyler Moore, 1B
DOB: 1/30/87
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 16th round, 2008, Mississippi State
2010 Stats: .269/.321/.552 at High-A (129 G)
Best/Worst Tool: Power/speed

Year in Review: This obscure 16th-round pick was arguably the most dangerous power hitter in the minors during the second half of the year, batting .346/.404/.716 after the break with 22 home runs in 243 at-bats.
The Good: Moore has massive raw power that's a combination of both bat speed and raw strength, and he doesn't need to fully square up a ball to drive it over the fence. He gets high praise for his work ethic, and worked hard with the coaching staff to close some of the holes in his swing. He's a surprisingly good defender at first base who excels in picking balls out of the dirt.
The Bad: Moore is a bat-only non-athlete. His loopy swing will prevent him from hitting for average, and he'd be a better prospect with a more patient approach. He's a well below-average runner.
Ephemera: The Nationals drafted Moore three times, including a 2005 selection (41st round) out of high school, and again in 2006 (33rd round) after his first junior college season.
Perfect World Projection: He could be a low-average/high-power everyday player.
Fantasy Impact: Power and... well, that's about it.
Path to the Big Leagues: Moore's prospect status could move up significantly if he can prove himself against more advanced pitching at Harrisburg.
ETA: 2012

11. Rick Hague, SS
DOB: 9/18/88
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Third round, 2010, Rice University
2010 Stats: .275/.380/.300 at Rookie (10 G); .327/.386/.522 at Low-A (39 G)
Best/Worst Tool: Bat/glove

Year in Review: This third-round pick had a mixed debut by exceeding all expectations offensively while being a disaster in the field.
The Good: Hague impressed scouts during his pro debut, looking like the potential first-round pick that he was before a poor junior year at Rice. He's a lean athlete with a solid approach, coupled with a quick, quiet swing that some project for average power in the big leagues. He's at least an average runner and he has enough arm to play third base.
The Bad: After being seen as a fundamentally-sound defender during the early part of his college career, Hague completely fell apart this spring, and it bled into his pro debut, as he committed 20 errors in 38 games and sometimes on the most trivial of plays. He's not an ideal shortstop as is, and scouts think he might work better at the hot corner, where he can focus more on reads and reacts, as opposed to getting to balls.
Ephemera: In just 19 at-bats for Hagerstown with runners in scoring position and two outs, Hague hit three triples.
Perfect World Projection: No matter where he ends up defensively, his bat will be where the value lies.
Fantasy Impact: It's solid but never sexy.
Path to the Big Leagues: Hague will begin the year with one of Washington's A-level teams, but his Opening Day position will be as interesting as his assignment.
ETA: 2013

The Sleeper: Yet another catcher worth keeping an eye on, 21-year-old Venezuelan Sandy Leon has a massive arm and scouts hope that his good approach at the plate will help him develop as a hitter.

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/85 or later)
1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP
2. Bryce Harper, OF
3. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP
4. Drew Storen, RHP
5. Derek Norris, C
6. Ian Desmond, SS
7. Danny Espinosa, SS/2B
8. Ross Detwiler, LHP
9. A.J. Cole, RHP
10. Sammy Solis, LHP

Sure, Strasburg is a risk now due to the elbow injury, but is he no more a risk than an 18-year-old kid? His brief major-league run was phenomenal, as I'd still wager on a Cy Young in his future. Zimmermann should be Strasburg's role model, as he made an impressive return from Tommy John surgery and is an excellent breakout candidate in 2011. Storen got to the big leagues quickly, but on a stuff level, he's more of a closer on a bad team/set-up man on a good one. Desmond made plenty of errors in 2010, but he was also a spectacular defender at times and could last in this league for a decade-plus in a Royce Clayton-like fashion. It's unlikely that Detwiler will ever be the pitcher that was the sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft, but there's no reason he can't slide into the back of a big-league rotation.

Summary: While the injury to Strasburg delays the franchise's improvement, this is still an organization heading in the right direction. The team will be able to pull out of the cellar, but there's not enough talent on the offensive side of things to call them a future contender yet.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus.